History Points to a Down Day for the S&P 500 Index (SPX)

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is fresh off its longest daily win streak since June 2014, but a seventh consecutive day of gains is rare

Dec 12, 2016 at 9:43 AM
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The S&P 500 Index (SPX) notched its sixth straight daily win last Friday -- a first for the broad-market barometer since June 2014. With the SPX also fresh off a record closing high, stocks are trading lower this morning as oil prices skyrocket -- while history suggests a seventh consecutive positive day for the S&P is rare. In fact, according to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the S&P 500 Index has been positive just 25% of the time on the seventh day following a six-day winning streak since the 2009 bottom, and has averaged a loss of 0.2%.

The action has historically been pretty choppy going forward, too, per the chart below. Looking out one week after the S&P 500's six-day win streak, the index has averaged a return of 0.6%, and has been positive three-quarters of the time. This is better than the SPX one-week average anytime return of 0.3%, and "percent positive" of 59.6%.

Since 2009, the SPX has historically left its post-streak outperformance at one week, though. Specifically, when looking at the two-week return, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has averaged a gain of 0.3%, versus an anytime return of 0.6% -- although the index is positive 68.8% of the time post-streak, versus 62.2% anytime. This historical underperformance is even more notable at one month, when the SPX has averaged a post-streak return of just 0.03%, versus an anytime return of 1.2%.

spx returns after six days up

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