Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) Heat Up in June?

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) are historical outperformers in June

by Andrea Kramer

Published on May 31, 2016 at 1:59 PM
Updated on May 12, 2017 at 10:42 AM

While the "sell in May and go away" adage might apply to many stocks, history suggests the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) actually outperforms in the May-to-October period. What's more, Nasdaq-listed e-tail giant Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and drink stock Monster Beverage Corporation (NASDAQ:MNST) are among the historically best-performing equities in June, according to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. So, can AMZN and MNST continue to heat up this summer? It looks like some options buyers might be betting "yes."

Best June stocks May 31


AMZN is up 1.4% at $722.02, and just off a record high of $724.23. The shares have gained more than 66% over the past year, and look to close May with a healthy 9.5% gain. This is happening as a slew of brick-and-mortar retailers spent May plummeting in the wake of dismal quarterly earnings. During the past 10 years, AMZN has ended June on a high note seven times, with an average return of 1.4%.

Against this backdrop, it's no surprise to find options traders tilting toward the bullish side. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.22 stands higher than 76% of all other readings from the past year. In other words, buyers have picked up AMZN calls over puts at a faster-than-usual clip during the past two weeks.

What's more, Amazon.com, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AMZN) short-term options can be had at a relative discount. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 20% is lower than 96% of the past year's readings, suggesting near-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment. 

MNST is down 0.7% at $149.45 today, even as fellow beverage maker Sodastream International Ltd (NASDAQ:SODA) rallies. Perhaps MNST -- which recently reported solid first-quarter earnings thanks to a partnership with The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) -- is being dragged lower by Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE:CCE), which has plunged in spite of a new "buy" rating. Whatever the motive, MNST is now testing support at its year-to-date breakeven level, after its most recent rejection in the $150-$155 range. This neighborhood has stifled MNST's rally attempts since 2015.

But perhaps June will reheat the equity. Over the past 10 years, MNST has ended June higher seven times, with an average return of about 1.8%.

However, short sellers aren't spooked by MNST's stellar history. These bears have been ramping up their exposure, with short interest increasing more than 24% during the most recent reporting period.

Perhaps some of these skeptics have also been hedging their bearish bets with long calls on MNST. On the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, the security has racked up a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 5.09 -- indicating more than five calls bought to open for every put. What's more, this ratio is higher than 97% of all others from the past 12 months, underscoring a bigger-than-usual thirst for MNST calls.

Whatever the motive, now is an opportune time to buy premium on Monster Beverage Corporation's (NASDAQ:MNST) short-term options. The equity's SVI is docked at an annual low of 22%.

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