Is the U.S. an Island of Calm Amidst a Sea of Greek Fear?

Comparing the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to the 'Europe VIX'

Jun 22, 2015 at 8:57 AM
facebook X logo linkedin

Another Friday, another weekend with worries about Greece. But at least there's a big summit today and we can finally put this crisis behind us. From MarketWatch:

"European Council President Donald Tusk on Friday sought to play down expectations ahead of an emergency meeting of eurozone leaders, saying the Monday gathering won't be the 'final step' in negotiations over Greeece's [sic] bailout. 'The purpose of the summit is to make sure that we all understand each other's positions and the possible consequences of our decisions. The summit will not be the final step and there will be no detailed technical negotiations,' Tusk said in a letter inviting eurozone leaders to the meeting." 

OK, I guess not. That's good, though; I mean, what would we do every time we got new or near all-time highs? We need some reason to stop, and thanks to the never-ending Greek story, always have a reason to pause.

So here's to never resolving Greece! Forty more years! Forty more years!

If we're so worried about Greece over here, we have a funny way of showing it. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains mired in the low teens. It remains more "excuse to sell" than "reason to panic" so far.

But... there's a whole world of "fear gauges" beyond VIX. Including Europe's VIX. And that Europe VIX is doing quite well. ZeroHedge ran this chart the other day: 




Yes, Europe's favorite fear gauge is at its highest level related to our VIX. In fact, every fear gauge is doing well relative to VIX. We remain an island of calm amidst a sea of Greece worries.

The assumption remains that it's just a matter of time before we start to wake up and smell the fear that's percolating around many other asset classes. The trick is always in the timing. As we note weekly, we're overdue for a VIX blip. We're also sort-of due for a longer-lasting volatility lift. I just wouldn't assume any of that means doom for the actual market. We can lift alongside rising volatility. And I guess that's what I ultimately expect: a period of gradually rising volatility and a market that still acts well.

Disclaimer: Mr. Warner's opinions expressed above do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.


Target Effortless Triple-Digit Gains Every Sunday Evening For Life!

This is your chance to triple your profit potential on Sunday evenings, without spending all your free time watching the market.

On Sundays, as a Weekend Plus subscriber, you’ll get up to 6 trades every Sunday, each targeting gains of 200% or more.

Start targeting gains like the ones our subscribers have seen recently, including:

213.3% GAIN on AutoNation calls
100.0% GAIN on Monster Beverage calls
100.4% GAIN on Walgreens Boots Alliance puts
100.4% GAIN on ON Semiconductor calls
257.7% GAIN on Dell calls

101.0% GAIN on Apollo Global Management calls
103.6% GAIN on JP Morgan  Chase calls
105.3% GAIN on DraftKings calls
101.3% GAIN on Airbnb calls
203.0% GAIN on Shopify calls
102.0% GAIN on Cboe Global Markets calls
100.9% GAIN on Boeing calls
102.1% GAIN on Microsoft puts
102.3% GAIN on First Solar calls
101.5% GAIN on PulteGroup calls
101.0% GAIN on Apple calls
209.4% GAIN on NXP Semiconductors calls
100.8% GAIN on Uber Technologies calls
100.4% GAIN on Academy Sports and Outdoors puts
102.2% GAIN on Trade Desk calls
100.8% GAIN on DoorDash calls
100.0% GAIN on Camping World Holdings puts
100.0% GAIN on Cboe Global Markets calls
100.2% GAIN on calls
238.5% GAIN on Oracle calls



Rainmaker Ads CGI