Schaeffer's Options Center

Schaeffer's Daily Option Blog

 

Family Dollar Looks to the Future

Author
Beth Gaston Moon (bgmoon@sir-inc.com)

9/28/2006 1:17:25 PM

In early-afternoon trading, Family Dollar (FDO: sentiment, chart, options) shares have dropped more than three percent as shareholders digest the discount retailer's latest earnings report. This morning, the firm announced fourth-quarter earnings of $38.8 million, or 26 cents per share, up from year-ago results of $29.2 million, or 18 cents per share. This topped analysts' consensus per-share estimate of 23 cents. Sales increased 10.3 percent during the reporting period to $1.58 billion, while same-store sales jumped up 4.8 percent.

For the first quarter, FDO expects to earn between 34 and 38 cents per share, surrounding analysts' consensus view of 37 cents. Same-store sales are expected to rise between two and four percent during the current period. For fiscal-year 2007, FDO expects per-share results of $1.57 to $1.69, amid higher transportation costs and a gradual mix toward lower-margin consumable merchandise that will impact the retailer's gross margins.

Today's pullback initially forced FDO shares below their 20-day moving average but the stock has now retaken control of this trendline and is sandwiched between this and its 10-day moving average.

 

Earnings Watch: Volt Information Sciences

Author
Ed Stenson (estenson@sir-inc.com)

9/1/2006 8:38:06 AM

Next Friday September 8, Volt Information Sciences is scheduled to report third-quarter results. The stock made a multi-year high last month, climbing to the highest levels it has visited since April 1998, so an agreeable set of results could drive it to new highs, while there's room for a further pullback on any disappointment.

According to Hoover's, VOL makes the majority of its money placing individuals in temporary and permanent jobs, and 45 percent of the stock is held by the founders, the Shaw family.

Monthly Chart of Volt Information Sciences since May 1997with 10-month and 20-month moving averages

The daily chart shows that VOL is consolidating after a run higher that was stopped before it approached the 50 level. The stock could be ready for its next leg higher, and next Friday's announcement might pull the trigger.

Daily Chart of Volt Information Sciences since December 2005

Here's the daily chart again, as we zoom in to look at the month of August. The stock slipped below its 10-day trendline today, but the 20-day appears to be offering support.

Daily Chart of Volt Information Sciences since August 2006 with 10-day and 20-day moving averages

We can use sentiment to help us to predict what might happen on an earnings hit or miss. First, Zacks lists just one brokerage which rates the stock, awarding a cautious "hold." Thus, an earnings miss could not cause many downgrades, but a good result might provoke fresh interest in this overlooked stock.

Meanwhile, equities enthusiasts did a little bit of short selling in August. Short interest increased during the month by a whomping 339 percent, and now 32.9 percent of VOL's float is sold short. What does this mean? If VOL comes in with a blockbuster earnings announcement, these short sellers could suddenly find themselves with losing positions. At that point, they face a choice. Either they can sit tight, and hope that VOL falls back, or they can bail out and cut their losses. Anyone who bails out is adding selling pressure to the market, making life even more difficult for the VOL short sellers who choose to remain short. Bottom line: there's a great deal of fuel here for a short-covering rally if the earnings are good.

Our other major metric of sentiment is the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR), which measures sentiment in the options pits. VOL does not trade options, so we cannot calculate a SOIR.

I don't know what the earnings news will be, but there a possibility of a big move to the upside if they're good. Last quarter, VOL beat the consensus estimate by 78.8 percent.

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Commentary by WhatsTrading.com
 
CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) $21.90 -5.56%
9/3/2010 3:20:00 PM

The top options trades so far today are in the CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) after the Sep - Oct 25 put spread trades at 45 cents, 58000X. The same spread traded yesterday and the action looks like rolling from one month to the next. Open interest in the Oct 25 puts increased by 54,880 to 129,900 following yesterday action and if today's block of 58K adds to it, then the increasing interest is likely to make the contract the second biggest position in the VIX; behind the Sep 25 puts, which have 289K of open interest. VIX is down 1.33 to 21.86 today and has now suffered a four-day slide of about 20 percent. The large blocks of puts on the VIX might be hedges of VIX futures.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Sprint Nextel Corporation (S) $4.39 +1.15%
9/3/2010 2:00:02 PM

Sprint Nextel (S) shares are up a nickel to $4.39 and have now added 12.5 percent since Monday. Some players might be worried that the gains won't last, as a block of 20K Sep 4 puts recently traded at the 4-cent ask price. It might be a closing trade. Meanwhile, 8,000 Jan 4 puts also changed hands, including 4000 at the 38-cent ask and 4,000 at 37 cents. The Jan 4 puts look opening and marked "tied", so possibly a protective put or volatility play. Implied volatility in Sprint is down 4 percent to 48.5 today, compared to a 52-week high and low of 87 and 46.5.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Urban Outfitters (URBN) $32.98 +1.23%
9/3/2010 12:00:01 PM

Urban Outfitters (URBN) adds 42 cents to $33 and options volume is 3X the average daily, led by a Sep 33 - 34 call spread, 3300X on ISE. Looks like it was sold at 45 cents and is possibly rolling up in strikes after a three-day 8.7 percent gain in the share price. URBN saw relative strength and was one of the best gainers in the NASDAQ 100 yesterday. The company is due to present at a Goldman Sachs Retailing Conference on 9/14.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Ford Motor Company (F) $11.95 +2.04%
9/3/2010 11:00:00 AM

Ford Motor (F) adds 24 cents to $11.96, now up 5.7 percent month-to-date, after reporting an 11 percent decline in August sales on Sep 1. Options action is picking up today, with 25K calls and 9,930 puts traded on the automaker, or two times the typical volume for the first hour of trading. Early trades included blocks of Sep 14 calls at 7 cents on ISE, where sentiment data hints at opening customer buy orders. 10,775 contracts now traded.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT) $23.90 +0.00%
9/2/2010 4:00:06 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) is flat at $23.91 and recent trades include an Oct 25 - 27 call spread at 32 cents, 5000X on CBOE. Looks like a buyer initiating the trade and the spread has been repeated multiple times. Now volume in both contracts exceeds 9000. Another noteworthy trade in Microsoft today is a block of 9555 Jan 27.5 calls at the 44-cent ask price in afternoon trading. This morning, about 30 minutes after the bell, a block of 5,720 Jan 24 calls was bought to open at $1.60 on ISE, according to ISEE data. 81,000 call options now traded on the software giant, compared to 13,000 puts. The bullish trading comes ahead of a presentation at the Citi Global Tech Conference Tuesday at Noon ET.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Mariner Energy Inc (ME) $22.85 -2.14%
9/2/2010 1:20:02 PM

Mariner Energy (ME) shares sank in volatile morning trading on reports of an explosion on one the company's oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. ME sank to $19.62 and were recently down $1.04 to $22.31, and 13.7 percent off session lows. Meanwhile, options volume is running 145X the average daily, with about 23,000 puts and 3,190 calls traded. The top trade is a lot of 456 Sep 20 puts at 80 cents. It traded at 11:45 and thirty minutes after the news broke. 15.4K now traded and the contract is now bid at 40 cents. CNBC reports that no oil spilled as a result of the explosion and Dahlman Rose analysts say the explosion is likely a platform. Consequently, the fallout is likely to be consirably smaller. Still, implied volatility in the Houston-based oil driller is up sharply, almost 200 percent to 76.5.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc (MNTA) $14.78 -0.81%
9/2/2010 12:20:01 PM

Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA) loses 14 cents to $14.76 and one strategist pays 25 cents for the Jan 10 - 12.5 (2X1) put ratio spread, 4000X on PHLX. Looks like a new position and might be a hedge. The Food and Drug Administration is expected to rule on Momenta's generic drug M-Enoxaparin by the end of this year. Implied volatility is flat today, but elevated at 92.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC) $50.19 +2.87%
9/2/2010 11:00:14 AM

Bullish flow detected in Anadarko Petroleum (APC), with 23,850 calls trading, or 2x the recent avg daily call volume in the name. Shares are up $1.81 to $50.50 after The Australian published a story saying that APC is on BHP's radar screen as a possible acquisition target. 'A senior figure in the global energy industry is convinced that the "second target" for BHP is Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, telling The Australian he believed the US oil and gas independent was firmly on BHP's radar. BHP declined to comment for this article.' (Link). In options action, the focus is on APC Sep 50, 52.5 and 55 calls. Nov 55 calls are among the most actives as well.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Burger King Holdings Inc (BKC) $18.90 +14.90%
9/1/2010 1:20:00 PM

It's been one Whopper of a day for Burker King (BKC) shareholders. The stock gapped higher, near $19 at the open, on reports the fast food chain is considering putting itself up for sale. However, the early gains faded amid talk 3I Group, the interested party, denied it was in talks with BKC. Shares dropped to $17.13 mid-morning and about 10 percent from session highs. However, the WSJ then released a story suggesting that 3G is in talks with Burger King. CNBC also out saying that it might be 3G, not 3I Group interested in BKC (very confusing -- bottom line is: original speculation about 3I Group was incorrect. It should have been 3G and yet still, it's not confirmed).\n
\nShares rallied back beyond $19 and are up $2.45 to $18.90. Meanwhile, options volume is 7X the average daily, with speculative call buying driving a lot of action in Sep and Oct 20 calls. Looks like two-way flow in Sep 19 puts and calls. Some traders are likely liquidating positions as BKC saw a flurry of activity on 8/25 and 8/26 (see 8/26 color). IV up 23 percent to 53.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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Ensco Plc (ESV) $43.95 +7.77%
9/1/2010 12:00:02 PM

Bullish flow detected in Ensco (ESV), with 5975 calls trading, or 3x the recent avg daily call volume in the name. Shares are up $3.28 to $44.06 on a good day for the oil drillers after crude rallied $2 to $73.92 a barrel. Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) up nearly 5 percent. ESV is among the day's biggest gainers (RDC, PDE, NE, NBR, and DO also seeing relative strength). In ESV options, the focus is on Sep 43, 44, 45, and 47 calls, as well as Oct 45 and 46 calls. Overall sentiment based on the total order flow is 59 percent Bullish.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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