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Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR) Bearish Bets Heat Up

GMCR option traders expect a steeper pullback in the short term

by 5/23/2013 2:49 PM
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The shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR) have surrendered 3.8% to linger near $73.34, and options traders are gambling on even more downside in the near term. So far today, the java giant has seen around 27,000 puts cross the tape -- a 44% mark-up to its average afternoon activity. Meanwhile, just 19,000 GMCR calls have exchanged.

Most popular is the June 72.50 put, where more than 4,400 contracts have changed hands at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $3.81. Considering fewer than 2,350 contracts are currently open at the front-month strike, and that most of today's puts have traded on the ask side, it appears speculators are buying the contracts to open.

The buyers will begin to make money if GMCR retreats beneath $68.69 (strike price minus VWAP) within the next few weeks, representing expected downside of 6.3% from Green Mountain's current perch. Should the stock stay above the strike through expiration on June 21, the most the buyers can lose is the initial premium paid for the puts.

From a sentiment standpoint, today's appetite for short-term puts is par for the course for GMCR. The equity sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.55, indicating that puts more than double calls among options with a shelf-life of three months or less. Even more telling, this ratio rests at a 52-week peak, implying that near-term speculators haven't been more put-heavy during the past year.

On the charts, GMCR has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 49 percentage points during the past three months. However, as Schaeffer's Senior Options Strategist Tony Venosa, CMT, points out, the security could be ripe for a short-term pullback.

Off the charts, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters was dealt a blow by the latest Nielsen data, which suggested K-cup sales increased at a weaker-than-expected rate in May.


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How Long Can Western Digital Corp. (WDC) Bears Hang On?

Outperforming WDC is still surrounded by skepticism

by 5/23/2013 2:21 PM
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Put options have become extremely popular on Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ:WDC), according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). During the past 10 sessions, speculators on these three exchanges have bought to open 9,666 puts on WDC, compared to just 2,965 calls. The tech stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 3.26 arrives in the 100th percentile of its annual range, indicating that options traders are showing a greater preference for puts over calls than at any other time over the past year.

In fact, Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for Western Digital checks in at 1.14, indicating that puts outnumber calls among options set to expire within three months. This ratio ranks higher than 67% of other such readings taken during the past year, which means short-term speculators are more put-heavy than usual on WDC.

The equity's analyst ratings are also skeptically slanted. Currently, seven analysts maintain a "strong buy" rating on WDC, compared to 10 "holds" and one "sell." Likewise, the stock's average 12-month price target of $59.37 represents a discount to its current perch at $62.50. In fact, WDC tagged a new all-time high of $62.55 earlier in today's session, pushing its year-to-date gain close to 47%.

However, there are signs that sentiment could be starting to shift toward the shares. On the heels of Tuesday's price-target hike from Lazard, analysts at Deutsche Bank today upped their price target to $72 from $62. As WDC extends its impressive rally, an unwinding of negative sentiment could help propel the stock deeper into uncharted territory.


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Plenty of Puts for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Traders are keying in on MSFT's June 30 put today

by 5/23/2013 2:15 PM
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Put trading has picked up on Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) today, with roughly 51,000 of them changing hands -- a 19% bump over typical intraday trading volume. Puts are also outstripping calls by a margin of about 10,000 contracts.

The day's most popular option is the June 30 put, where 17,047 contracts have traded at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.10 -- mostly on the ask side, indicating they were bought. More specifically, a corresponding 2.7 percentage point uptick in implied volatility suggests they were bought to open. Thus, these bearish bettors stand to gain should shares of Microsoft dive to $29.90 (strike less VWAP) from their current price of $34.21, by June expiration.

Today's put-heavy activity falls right in line with the prevailing sentiment in MSFT's options pits. The stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) is 0.72, which ranks in the 98th percentile of readings taken over the past 52 weeks. In other words, put-buying activity is approaching its annual peak.

Opinions within the brokerage bunch are considerably more varied. Of the 29 analysts assessing Microsoft, 16 reward it with ratings of "buy" or better, while 13 give it a tepid "hold."

Technically, MSFT has struggled since touching a high of $35.27 earlier this week, shedding 3%.


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Facebook Inc (FB) Sees an Uptick in Near-Term Call Activity

However, some of this FB call volume is bearish in nature

by 5/23/2013 1:51 PM
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Call activity is running hotter than usual on Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) today, with around 122,000 contracts crossing the tape so far -- a 31% mark-up from the norm, and almost triple the number of puts exchanged. However, not all of this call volume is of the bullish variety, as at least one trader seems to be betting on the stock to remain relatively stagnant throughout the summer.

Delving deeper into the data, close to 15,300 calls have changed hands at the August 29 strike -- a large block of which traded at a bid price of $0.56 each, suggesting they were sold. Meanwhile, this option is presently home to open interest of just 97 contracts, pointing to the initiation of new positions. By selling these calls to open, the speculator is betting on FB to remain south of $29 through August expiration. This would render the options worthless, and allow him to pocket the initial premium received for his call sales.

It's also worth noting that this activity could be the work of a shareholder writing covered calls in an effort to generate some extra income, or perhaps pick up some downside protection. In the event that these contracts would move into the money, the call writer would be at risk for assignment. However, the market seems to think there's a less than 1-in-4 chance of that coming to fruition, as the delta for these options is docked at 0.23.

Facebook Inc calls were popular prior to today's session, however, albeit in a more traditional sense. In fact, the equity's 20-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio checks in at 2.49, indicating traders have bought to open twice as many calls than puts during the past month. Plus, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.64 sits just 1 percentage point from an annual low, implying that short-term speculators have rarely been more call-heavy. An unwinding of these out-of-the-money bullish bets -- particularly within June series of options -- could end up pressuring the shares lower in the near term.

From a technical perspective, the social networking site has been sluggish lately, shedding about 5.5% year-to-date, and more than 21% on a year-over-year basis. On the charts, the stock remains below its 10-day moving average, which has acted as resistance for the past few weeks.

At last check, FB remains nearly flat with yesterday's close of $25.16.


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Option Bear Places Massive Bet Against Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI)

SIRI June 3.5 put is the most active option among large-cap stocks

by 5/23/2013 1:50 PM
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One gutsy bear is making a big bet against the short-term future of Sirius XM Radio Inc (NASDAQ:SIRI), and has driven the satellite radio provider's put volume sharply higher today. Specifically, more than 52,000 puts have changed hands, 27 times what is typically expected. By contrast, fewer than 10,000 calls have crossed the tape.

Nearly all of these puts have been contained to one strike -- the June 3.50 put. More than 50,000 contracts have traded here, including one block of 40,465 contracts that went off north of the ask price at $0.14 per contract. The net premium for this block is more than $566,000 (the number of contracts, times the premium, times 100 shares per contract). Implied volatility is nearly 5 percentage points higher at this strike, and volume easily exceeds open interest, factors that suggest these bearish bets are being purchased to open.

Meanwhile, the stock is up more than 75% over the last 12 months, has outperformed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a year-to-date basis, and tagged a fresh five-year high of $3.59 last week. Even Wall Street has come around, as six of the 10 covering analysts rate SIRI a "strong buy."

With the stock down slightly to trade at $3.50 today, the option is at the money, with a delta of -0.48. This suggests a nearly 1-in-2 chance the puts will be in the money by expiration on June 21. In order for today's buyer to be in profitable territory at expiration, however, SIRI will need to be trading south of $3.36, or the strike price less the $0.14-per-contract premium paid.

Today's put buying is a change of pace from the increasingly vocal activity among call buyers. During the last 10 days, 33,160 calls have been purchased to open on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), versus 4,353 puts. The resultant 10-day call/put volume ratio -- likely to change in the wake of today's activity -- stands at 7.62.

It is possible that today's large-scale put buyer is thinking something said in tonight's quarterly earnings report from Pandora Media Inc (NYSE:P) will impact other names in the sector. Analysts are predicting a loss of 10 cents per share for the streaming-music concern.


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