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Bears Biting on Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (KORS)

Intraday put volume is up on KORS

by 5/20/2013 12:11 PM
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Trading on Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NYSE:KORS) is skewed in a strongly bearish direction so far this morning. Puts are being exchanged at more than four times their usual rate, and outnumber calls at a ratio of more than 3-to-1.

Attracting the most attention is the June 57.50 put, where over 5,200 contracts have crossed the tape -- 96% at the ask price. The latter statistic -- considered alongside the fact that implied volatility is up by over 4 percentage points -- suggests that the puts are being newly minted.

The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) for the puts is $2.46, meaning that the shares of KORS -- which are currently priced at $61.27 -- must descend to $55.04 (strike price minus VWAP) prior to June 21, when front-month options expire. If they do not, however, the most today's traders have at stake is the premium paid at initiation.

This morning's bearish attitude toward Michael Kors Holdings is part of a pattern in the options world. The company's International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) 10-day put/call volume ratio is 0.97, which places in the 78th percentile of like readings taken over the past year. Long story short, puts are being scooped up over calls at a faster-than-usual clip.

By contrast, analysts have a positive posture toward KORS, with nine of 10 chiming in with "buy" or better endorsements -- not including the "buy" rating issued by Canaccord Genuity this morning. Plus, the consensus 12-month price target of $73 represents a premium of more than 19% to the stock's current perch.

That sentiment is mixed toward Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NYSE:KORS) is confounding. The stock has tacked on nearly 20% in 2013, and more than 60% over the past year. Furthermore, the stock boasts support from its 10-day moving average, which contained a pullback just last Thursday.

All of this begs the question: Are today's out-of-the-money put buyers really speculating on a downturn from the high-end retailer, or simply protecting their long stock positions?


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Could Groupon Inc (GRPN) Be Headed for Double Digits?

GRPN trader sells a large block of calls in the January series

by 5/20/2013 11:54 AM
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The Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN) options pits are flooded today, with nearly all of the attention on the call side. Roughly 55,000 GRPN calls have changed hands, five times more than expected intraday volume and more than 48 times the number of puts already exchanged today. Although the lion's share of these calls are being sold to open, the long-range forecast leaves room for GRPN to rally, as the investor is targeting the $10 level, or a 43.5% jump from the stock's current perch of $6.97.

Digging in, a block of 49,469 January 2014 10-strike calls crossed the tape at the bid price of $0.55 per contract shortly after the opening bell. Given that open interest was just 7,296 heading into today's trading, it is safe to assume off the bat that these are new positions. The International Securities Exchange (ISE) confirms the customer's order was sold to open, for a net credit of approximately $2.72 million (the number of calls traded, times the premium, times the factor of 100 to account for the 100 shares represented by each call contract).

According to Trade-Alert, these calls were not paired with stock, but may correspond to an existing stock holding as part of a covered-call strategy. In other words, today's call seller may be a shareholder who would be willing to unload his position should GRPN rally up to $10. In the meantime, he collects the premium for selling the calls, and if GRPN doesn't overtake the 10 strike by January expiration, he retains the entire premium as profit as the calls expire worthless (assuming he holds the positions through expiration).

Widening the scope to look at the overall options picture, it looks as though traditional calls have been popular of late. During the last 10 trading days, 65,690 calls have been purchased to open versus 21,119 puts, according to the ISE, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). The resultant call/put volume ratio of 3.11 is in the top one-third of the past year's worth of readings, suggesting a slight preference for long calls of late.

However, not everyone is a GRPN fan. Short interest accounts for more than 11% of the equity's float, but these bears are starting to jump ship. During the last reporting period, the number of GRPN shorted shares decreased by more than 18%. Continued short-covering activity could boost the stock over the short term.

Meanwhile, despite the stock's impressive comeback -- GRPN shares are up more than 43% in 2013 and have gained close to 25% since reporting earnings on May 8 -- analysts remain largely skeptical. Even after some recent price-target hikes, the consensus 12-month price target of $6.34 is south of the stock's current price. Also, just two of the 23 analysts following the stock have handed down a rating of "buy" or better, leaving plenty of room for future upgrades.


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Trader Hopes Tiffany & Co.'s (TIF) Luster Tarnishes

TIF's August 70 put attracted one big bear on Friday

by 5/20/2013 11:17 AM
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In spite of its year-to-date gain of nearly 36% and hitting a 52-week high of $78.29 during intraday trading, Tiffany & Co. (NYSE:TIF) saw one detractor come out in force on Friday. The item of interest was the August 70 put, where more than 4,000 options changed hands -- by far the session's most active option for the fine jeweler. Almost all of the puts traded in one large block at the ask price of $1.54, and open interest at this strike surged by more than 3,800 contracts over the weekend, confirming buy-to-open activity.

By purchasing the puts to open, Friday's bear is expecting Tiffany & Co. to fall to $68.46 (strike price minus the premium paid) from its week-end close of $78, by August expiration -- that's a slide of just over 12%. In other words, the trader would profit with each step south of that price.

Taking a step back, over the past ten weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), traders have purchased 14,980 puts, compared to 11,837 calls, for a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.27. This abundance of pessimistic bets -- particularly within the June series of options -- could end up translating into options-related support down the road.

Meanwhile, short interest on Tiffany & Co. shares makes up a sizeable 6.4% of its available float, which would take nearly eight sessions to cover, at the security's average daily trading volume. Still, short interest has fallen over 24% over the past month -- a sign that some bears have already capitulated in response to TIF's impressive run.

As I mentioned earlier, Tiffany & Co. (NYSE:TIF) has been on a technical tear in 2013, and has support from its positively trending 10-day moving average. Should that pattern continue through August, Friday's big trader would lose the premium he paid to initiate his long put position.


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Traders Expect QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM) to Tackle Resistance

Speculative players have high hopes for QCOM shares

by 5/20/2013 10:57 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Traders took an interest in QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) call options last Friday, with approximately 43,000 contracts changing hands -- just north of the stock's average daily volume of about 39,000 contracts. As May-dated options expired, call players set their sights on QCOM's June series, which assumed front-month status today.

Specifically, a total of 16,189 contracts traded at the June 67.50 call, with 78% crossing the tape at the ask price. Open interest at this strike surged by 9,684 contracts over the weekend, confirming the addition of new long calls here on Friday.

Calls have been the options of choice on QCOM for quite some time. During the past 50 sessions, speculators have bought to open 2.92 calls for every put on the tech stock, according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). In other words, bullish contracts have nearly tripled their bearish counterparts during this timeframe.

Meanwhile, only 0.8% of QCOM's float is sold short. At the equity's average daily trading volume, it would take less than one day for all of these shorted shares to be covered. Generally speaking, it seems that very few traders are betting against QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM).

In today's session, QCOM is fractionally lower at $66.41. The shares are backing down from pressure in the $67 neighborhood, which has served as resistance since the start of February. Despite several challenges of this region in the intervening months, QCOM hasn't managed a single weekly close above this level.


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Ford Motor Company (F) Option Players Predict Higher Highs

F fans are purchasing call options that expire on Friday

by 5/20/2013 10:57 AM
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Automaker Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is up 0.6% at $15.17, after notching a new two-year high of $15.23 right out of the gate. What's more, options traders are gambling on additional upside for F this week, as evidenced by the early appetite for weekly call contracts.

Within the first 90 minutes of trading, Ford Motor has already seen roughly 38,000 calls cross the tape -- 65% higher than its average intraday call volume. For comparison's sake, fewer than 7,700 F puts have exchanged thus far.

Attracting notable attention has been the weekly 5/24 15.50-strike call, which has seen more than 4,900 contracts change hands at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.07. Volume has exceeded open interest at the strike, and 89% of the calls have gone off on the ask side, hinting at newly bought bullish bets.

By purchasing the calls to open, the buyers expect Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) to topple $15.57 (strike price plus VWAP) by Friday's closing bell, when the weekly options expire. Should the shares halt their quest for new highs and remain south of the strike this week, the most the buyers can lose is the initial premium paid for the calls.

From a broader sentiment standpoint, F's options crowd is skeptically skewed. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.16 sits just 1 percentage point from a 12-month peak. Or, in simpler terms, near-term options traders have been more put-biased just 1% of the time during the past year.


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