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Morgan Stanley (MS) Bulls Bank on Strong Finish this Week

Bulls eye Morgan Stanley (MS) near-the-money June call

by 6/19/2013 3:02 PM
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Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has enjoyed a higher-than-usual amount of call activity in its options pits today, with roughly 20,000 calls exchanged so far. Much of this activity has taken place at the near-the-money June 26.50 strike, where more than 8,300 contracts have crossed for a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.25. Of these contracts, 76% went off at the ask price. Additionally, implied volatility has increased by 1.3 percentage points, and volume exceeds open interest, collectively pointing to buy-to-open activity.

Today's call buyers anticipate MS will hurdle north of the breakeven price of $26.75 (strike price plus the VWAP) by Friday's close, when the front-month option expires. The expected trek is attainable, considering just last week MS touched a new 52-week high of $27.17, before taking a step back to its current perch of $26.13. Should MS stay below the 26.50 strike through Friday's close, today's call buyers risk losing the initial premium paid per contract.

Technically speaking, MS has made an impressive run on the charts during the last 12 months, advancing almost 85%. In response, 12 of the 21 analysts weighing in on the stock give it a "strong buy" endorsement, while eight rate it as a "hold," and only one considers it a "strong sell."

Still, in MS' options pits overall, bearish sentiment has been high as of late. In fact, speculators have bought to open 1.16 puts for every call within the past 10 sessions, according to the stock's International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.16. This ratio ranks in the 76th percentile of its annual range, conveying that speculators' appetite for puts over calls has been healthier-than-usual in recent weeks.

Likewise, MS' Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.44 ranks higher than 96% of other such readings taken throughout the year. This means put open interest among options with a shelf-life of three months or less is at a near-annual high (relatively speaking), outnumbering call open interest by a margin of almost 1.5-to-1.


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Most Active Options: Facebook Inc (FB), Cisco Systems, Ford Motor (F)

FB, CSCO, and F are seeing notable options activity today

by 6/19/2013 2:48 PM
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Of the 20 equities seeing the heaviest options volume in recent sessions, three names of notable interest this afternoon are Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO), and Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F). Here is a quick look at today's interesting activity in these options pits.

Total option volume in Facebook Inc is running south of normal levels today, but some call buyers are looking longer-term to scoop up in-the-money bullish bets at the December 24 call. More than 6,000 calls have changed hands at this strike, which was previously home to roughly 4,500 open positions. Implied volatility has ticked higher, and several blocks have traded off the ask price, suggesting they may have been purchased to open for a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $2.70. Breakeven at expiration in six months is therefore $26.70, or the strike price plus the VWAP. With the stock slightly higher today at $24.43, this breakeven level represents an advance of 9.3% from current levels. During the past six months, FB has declined 10.9%, so this range of price swing is far from impossible. Facebook option speculators have been call focused of late, as evidenced by the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR). The current reading of 0.58 ranks lower than all similar readings taken during the past year.

Taking the top spot among all option strikes in Cisco Systems today is the June 25 call, where over 6,300 of the front-month options have changed hands, mostly at the ask price. Although open interest exceeds volume, implied volatility is up 1.2 percentage points, and data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE) suggests some buy-to-open activity. Given the VWAP of $0.19, the breakeven price at expiration on Friday afternoon is $25.19, which is north of the stock's 52-week high of $24.98. Currently, CSCO shares are sitting just south of this acme, at $24.86, but delta on the position is 0.42, giving the option about a 2-in-5 chance at expiring in the money in two days. During the past two weeks, puts have been the preferred choice in the Cisco option pits, as the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio at ISE, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) stands at 1.36, which is 1 percentage point from an annual high. Simply put, puts are being bought to open at a faster pace than usual -- almost the fastest pace all year.

Finally, Ford Motor is seeing some action at the January 2014 16-strike call this afternoon. More than 2,500 contracts have traded (the large majority at the ask price), and ISE data indicates that most of the orders were of the sell-to-open variety. The shares are trading slightly south of the strike price at $15.46 -- and are up more than 19% year-to-date -- but these are nonetheless a bet that Ford shares will stay wedged below the strike price through January 2014 options expiration. If not, the call seller may be forced to deliver Ford shares at a price of $16 apiece, no matter how high the stock is trading. If the call remains out of the money, the call sellers keep the initial premium collected as profit.

The 20 stocks below have attracted the highest options volume -- in the front three-months' series -- during the past 10 trading days. The companies highlighted are those that are new to the list since the last time the study was run. Data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White.

Most-Active

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July Bulls Predict New Highs for Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)

Call activity continues to run hot on AMAT

by 6/19/2013 2:11 PM
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Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) has been a favorite among bullish bettors lately, per data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). In fact, traders on these exchanges have bought to open 46,191 calls during the past 10 weeks, compared to just 27,521 puts. The resulting 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.68 ranks higher than 72% of comparable annual readings, indicating speculators have been picking up call over puts at an accelerated pace in recent months.

This optimism has carried over into the current session, as well. Approximately 13,000 calls have changed hands thus far, which is more than triple the equity's expected intraday call volume. At the other end of the options' spectrum, fewer than 2,900 puts have crossed the tape. Digging deeper into the data, today's bulls are eyeing the $16 level, which hasn't been conquered by the stock on a closing basis since March 2011.

To be more specific, more than 9,500 calls have been exchanged at the July 16 strike -- 84% of them at the ask price, signaling buyer-driven activity. These near-the-money contracts traded at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.49. Meanwhile, today's volume has surpassed current open interest levels, and implied volatility has ticked almost 2 percentage points higher since the opening bell -- hinting at the initiation of fresh bullish bets.

In order for traders to profit from their bought-to-open calls, AMAT must power north of $16.49 (strike price plus the VWAP) by the close on July 19, when these back-month options expire. This denotes a rise of about 4% from the stock's present perch at $15.85. Also of note, the delta for these contracts stands at 0.47, giving them a near 1-in-2 chance of finishing in the money. However, even if the semiconductor name remains below the $16 mark throughout the option's lifetime, the most speculators will have to forfeit is the initial premium paid.

This upbeat attitude toward Applied Materials, Inc. is understandable, given the equity's year-to-date gain of over 38%. What's more, the stock has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by roughly 14 percentage points during the past two months. On the charts, the security continues to trade north of its 10-week moving average, which has served largely as support since early December.


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Bears Continue Devouring Citigroup Inc (C)

Put buyers anticipate a mild end-of-week swoon for C

by 6/19/2013 2:09 PM
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Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), currently trading at $49.69, has had a strong 2013. The financial name boasts a year-to-date gain of over 25%, and during the past three months, it has bested the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by nearly 6 percentage points.

Nevertheless, in today's options pits, traders are circling C's June 49.50 put. Over 8,300 contracts have traded at the strike, with a majority going off at the ask price, suggesting they were purchased. In addition, this strike holds open interest of just 1,868 contracts, and implied volatility is up 2.8 percentage points to 29.9% -- both of which indicate the initiation of new positions.

In order for today's put buyers to profit from the play, they need the shares of Citigroup to make the short trek down to $49.04 (strike price, minus the $0.46 volume-weighted average price) by the closing bell on Friday. If the necessary move doesn't come to fruition, however, the most they can lose is the premium paid -- which is slightly more expensive than usual, given the fact that the stock's current implied volatility level is higher than its 20-day historical (realized) volatility of 26.8%.

In spite of the aforementioned technicals, today's appetite for puts is by no means an exception to recent trends. According to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), C's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.72 ranks in the 84th percentile of its annual range. In other words, traders are picking up puts at a faster-than-usual rate.

As a result, Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) has a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.89. Relative to the past year's worth of data, the SOIR places in the 85th percentile, indicating that short-term traders are more bearishly biased than usual.


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Short-Term Bulls Descend on Sprint Nextel Corporation (S)

S call volume spikes as merger drama continues

by 6/19/2013 12:48 PM
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Some gutsy options traders are betting on a short-term bounce higher for Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE:S), despite today's decline in the shares. The stock has slipped 2.5% lower today to trade at $7.14, on the heels of a brokerage downgrade this morning and further developments on the M&A front. At midday, nearly 87,000 Sprint calls have changed hands, topping the typical intraday volume by a factor of seven. (By contrast, just 15,000 puts have traded.)

Almost half of these options traded at one strike -- the weekly 7/5 7.50-strike call -- in two large blocks. All told, more than 42,000 contracts have traded at this out-of-the-money strike, most of which crossed at the ask price of $0.06 per contract. In order for these to be in profitable territory when the option expires on July 5, Sprint shares need to be trading above $7.56 (the strike price plus the premium paid).

Breakeven is a jump of 5.9% from current levels, and represents territory not explored since September 2008. It's no surprise, then, that delta on this option has dropped to 0.24 from 0.37 at yesterday's close. There is now a slightly less than 1-in-4 chance the option will be in the money at expiration. In the two-plus weeks between now and then, however, the option will gain $0.24 for every $1.00 Sprint Nextel advances (and lose $0.24 for every $1.00 the underlying stock drops). This formula is fluid, and will change as delta shifts up and down.

Today's call activity is a change of pace from recent trends, which have skewed toward the put camp. The stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) stands at 1.82. In other words, puts have been purchased to open over calls at a roughly 9-to-5 margin during the last two weeks. What's more, this ratio is higher than 92% of the past year's worth of readings, showing that demand for long puts has rarely been higher.

Meanwhile, Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE:S) remains tied up in takeover commotion. To recap: Sprint is now suing one of its own suitors -- DISH Network Corp (NASDAQ:DISH) -- to block its takeover of Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ:CLWR). (Sprint owns a majority stake in Clearwire.) Elsewhere, DISH has said it won't sweeten its buyout offer for Sprint, presumably clearing the way for Japanese telecom firm SoftBank to feel relatively secure in its recently boosted takeover offer, on which Sprint shareholders will vote next Tuesday. This fundamental backdrop creates a unique set-up for speculative traders. Should Sprint not bounce higher in the next few weeks, however, today's call buyers have risked only 100% of the modest premium paid.


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