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Juniper Networks Still Surrounded by Skeptics

Pessimists purchased JNPR's August 17 put

by 8/3/2012 10:11 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The shares of Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE:JNPR - 17.92) have added about 11% during the past month, yet the options crowd remains unconvinced of the stock's strength. During the course of yesterday's session, JNPR saw roughly 15,000 puts cross the tape -- about three times both its average daily put volume and the number of JNPR calls exchanged.

Most popular by a mile was the equity's near-the-money August 17 put, which saw more than 11,200 contracts traded -- 74% at the ask price, hinting at buyer-driven volume. Furthermore, put open interest at the front-month strike skyrocketed by more than 9,200 contracts overnight, confirming our suspicions of newly opened positions. By purchasing the puts to open, the investors are expecting JNPR to breach the $17 level within the next few weeks.

From a broader sentiment standpoint, pessimistic positions are nothing new for JNPR. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.52 stands just seven percentage points from a 52-week peak. In other words, option buyers have been initiating bearish bets over bullish at a near annual-high clip during the past two weeks.

As such, the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio has risen to 0.99 -- in the 99th percentile of its annual range. Or, simply put, short-term options traders have rarely been more put-biased toward JNPR during the past year.

In similar fashion, just eight out of 27 analysts consider JNPR worthy of a "buy" or better rating. Meanwhile, the consensus 12-month price target rests at $18.54, implying expected upside of just 5% to JNPR's closing price of $17.58 on Thursday.

In early trading, JNPR has followed the broader equities market into the black, tacking on 1.7% to wink at the $17.88 level. The stock is on pace to notch a second consecutive weekly win over its 10-week moving average, but is struggling to surmount its 20-week trendline, lingering just overhead. This duo of moving averages has capped all but one of JNPR's weekly closes since late February.

Weekly Chart of JNPR since February 2012 With 10-Week and 20-Week Moving Averages


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