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Front-Month Traders Forecast New Lows for Zagg (ZAGG)

ZAGG's February options attract near-term bears

by 2/8/2013 2:00 PM
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Zagg Inc (NASDAQ:ZAGG - 7.09) has been a favorite among bearish options players lately, according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). In fact, the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio checks in at 2.11, confirming calls bought to open have more than doubled puts during the last two weeks. This ratio registers in the 91st percentile of its annual range, meaning traders have picked up puts over calls at a faster pace just 9% of the time within the past year.

This trend has carried over into today's session, as well. Nearly 3,000 puts have crossed the tape so far, which is almost 13 times the stock's anticipated intraday volume, and more than five times the number of calls traded. The front-runner has been the February 6 put, where 1,567 contracts have changed hands -- the majority of them at the ask price, suggesting they were bought.

More specifically, these out-of-the-money puts were exchanged at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.13. Meanwhile, this option is currently home to open interest of just 177 contracts, while implied volatility was last seen roughly 7 percentage points higher -- both indications of buy-to-open activity. In order for these traders to secure a profit in this scenario, ZAGG must retreat below $5.87 (strike price less the VWAP) by the closing bell on Feb. 15, when front-month options expire. This reflects a 17.2% drop from the security's present perch, which would push it into new-low territory.

This bearish attitude toward the mobile accessories guru isn't unwarranted, considering ZAGG's year-over-year decline of nearly 34%, as well as its year-to-date loss of close to 4%. Adding insult to injury, the equity has also trailed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by close to 12 percentage points during the past month.

Also of note, the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 49% ranks higher than just 21% of other such readings taken within the past year. In other words, ZAGG's front-month options are relatively cheap right now, with the initial premium paid representing the total risk for today's put buyers.


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