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Most Active Options: Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) (BIDU), AIG, JPMorgan Chase

BIDU, AIG, and JPM are seeing notable options trading activity today

by 5/23/2013 2:52 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Of the 20 equities seeing the heaviest options volume in recent sessions, three names of notable interest this afternoon are Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) (NASDAQ:BIDU), American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG), and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM). Here is a quick look at today's interesting activity in these options pits.

Calls are the options of choice on Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) (NASDAQ:BIDU) today, with around 25,000 contracts changing hands, compared to roughly 14,000 puts. However, not all of the day's activity is of the bullish kind. A healthy portion of the 8,007 contracts traded at BIDU's weekly 5/31 100-strike call have gone off at the bid price, and volume is outstripping open interest, hinting at sell-to-open activity. Ideally, BIDU will remain below the psychologically significant century mark through next Friday's close, allowing the options to expire worthless, and the traders to pocket the maximum reward, which is also the initial credit collected. Trade-Alert has indicated the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) for the 5/31 100-strike calls is $0.45. The options market isn't too confident this call will find its way into the money ahead of expiration, with delta currently perched at 0.13, or 13%. This outlook seems to agree with the charts, as BIDU has managed to eke out just one daily close north of $100 since taking an earnings-induced slide in early February. At last check, Baidu was lingering near $94.08.

Considering American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG) has tacked on a formidable 26.3% in 2013, the equity's option pits have been teeming with bullish activity. This trend is being continued in today's session, where approximately 34,000 calls have crossed the tape, more than double the number of puts that have been exchanged. With American International Group currently trading at $44.64, today's speculators are eyeing a modest move higher through tomorrow's close. More than 4,900 weekly 5/24 44.50-strike calls have been traded for a VWAP of $0.43. A number of these have crossed at the ask price, and only 511 contracts make up open interest, making it safe to assume that a new batch of bullish bets is being initiated. In order for these in-the-money calls to be profitable, AIG must rise above breakeven at $44.93 (strike price plus the VWAP) by the time the closing bell sounds tomorrow evening.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) option traders are calling a bottom to today's minor pullback. Of the 7,743 contracts traded at the weekly 5/24 53-strike put, more than half have changed hands at the bid price, and volume is exceeding current levels of open interest, suggesting that a portion of the activity is of the sell-to-open variety. By initiating these short puts, traders expect JPM to maintain its perch atop $53 through tomorrow's close -- the stock is currently trading at $53.33. In this best-case scenario, the puts will expire worthless, and the speculators will retain the full potential profit of $0.32 per contract, which is the VWAP. Put writing has been in favor on JPM in recent weeks, per data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). During the course of the past 10 sessions, traders on these exchanges have sold to open 98,225 puts, compared to the 70,345 puts that have been bought to open.

The 20 stocks below have attracted the highest options volume -- in the front three-months' series -- during the past 10 trading days. The companies highlighted are those that are new to the list since the last time the study was run. Data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White.

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Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR) Bearish Bets Heat Up

GMCR option traders expect a steeper pullback in the short term

by 5/23/2013 2:49 PM
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The shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR) have surrendered 3.8% to linger near $73.34, and options traders are gambling on even more downside in the near term. So far today, the java giant has seen around 27,000 puts cross the tape -- a 44% mark-up to its average afternoon activity. Meanwhile, just 19,000 GMCR calls have exchanged.

Most popular is the June 72.50 put, where more than 4,400 contracts have changed hands at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $3.81. Considering fewer than 2,350 contracts are currently open at the front-month strike, and that most of today's puts have traded on the ask side, it appears speculators are buying the contracts to open.

The buyers will begin to make money if GMCR retreats beneath $68.69 (strike price minus VWAP) within the next few weeks, representing expected downside of 6.3% from Green Mountain's current perch. Should the stock stay above the strike through expiration on June 21, the most the buyers can lose is the initial premium paid for the puts.

From a sentiment standpoint, today's appetite for short-term puts is par for the course for GMCR. The equity sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.55, indicating that puts more than double calls among options with a shelf-life of three months or less. Even more telling, this ratio rests at a 52-week peak, implying that near-term speculators haven't been more put-heavy during the past year.

On the charts, GMCR has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 49 percentage points during the past three months. However, as Schaeffer's Senior Options Strategist Tony Venosa, CMT, points out, the security could be ripe for a short-term pullback.

Off the charts, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters was dealt a blow by the latest Nielsen data, which suggested K-cup sales increased at a weaker-than-expected rate in May.


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How Long Can Western Digital Corp. (WDC) Bears Hang On?

Outperforming WDC is still surrounded by skepticism

by 5/23/2013 2:21 PM
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Put options have become extremely popular on Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ:WDC), according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). During the past 10 sessions, speculators on these three exchanges have bought to open 9,666 puts on WDC, compared to just 2,965 calls. The tech stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 3.26 arrives in the 100th percentile of its annual range, indicating that options traders are showing a greater preference for puts over calls than at any other time over the past year.

In fact, Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for Western Digital checks in at 1.14, indicating that puts outnumber calls among options set to expire within three months. This ratio ranks higher than 67% of other such readings taken during the past year, which means short-term speculators are more put-heavy than usual on WDC.

The equity's analyst ratings are also skeptically slanted. Currently, seven analysts maintain a "strong buy" rating on WDC, compared to 10 "holds" and one "sell." Likewise, the stock's average 12-month price target of $59.37 represents a discount to its current perch at $62.50. In fact, WDC tagged a new all-time high of $62.55 earlier in today's session, pushing its year-to-date gain close to 47%.

However, there are signs that sentiment could be starting to shift toward the shares. On the heels of Tuesday's price-target hike from Lazard, analysts at Deutsche Bank today upped their price target to $72 from $62. As WDC extends its impressive rally, an unwinding of negative sentiment could help propel the stock deeper into uncharted territory.


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Plenty of Puts for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Traders are keying in on MSFT's June 30 put today

by 5/23/2013 2:15 PM
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Put trading has picked up on Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) today, with roughly 51,000 of them changing hands -- a 19% bump over typical intraday trading volume. Puts are also outstripping calls by a margin of about 10,000 contracts.

The day's most popular option is the June 30 put, where 17,047 contracts have traded at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.10 -- mostly on the ask side, indicating they were bought. More specifically, a corresponding 2.7 percentage point uptick in implied volatility suggests they were bought to open. Thus, these bearish bettors stand to gain should shares of Microsoft dive to $29.90 (strike less VWAP) from their current price of $34.21, by June expiration.

Today's put-heavy activity falls right in line with the prevailing sentiment in MSFT's options pits. The stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) is 0.72, which ranks in the 98th percentile of readings taken over the past 52 weeks. In other words, put-buying activity is approaching its annual peak.

Opinions within the brokerage bunch are considerably more varied. Of the 29 analysts assessing Microsoft, 16 reward it with ratings of "buy" or better, while 13 give it a tepid "hold."

Technically, MSFT has struggled since touching a high of $35.27 earlier this week, shedding 3%.


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Facebook Inc (FB) Sees an Uptick in Near-Term Call Activity

However, some of this FB call volume is bearish in nature

by 5/23/2013 1:51 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Call activity is running hotter than usual on Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) today, with around 122,000 contracts crossing the tape so far -- a 31% mark-up from the norm, and almost triple the number of puts exchanged. However, not all of this call volume is of the bullish variety, as at least one trader seems to be betting on the stock to remain relatively stagnant throughout the summer.

Delving deeper into the data, close to 15,300 calls have changed hands at the August 29 strike -- a large block of which traded at a bid price of $0.56 each, suggesting they were sold. Meanwhile, this option is presently home to open interest of just 97 contracts, pointing to the initiation of new positions. By selling these calls to open, the speculator is betting on FB to remain south of $29 through August expiration. This would render the options worthless, and allow him to pocket the initial premium received for his call sales.

It's also worth noting that this activity could be the work of a shareholder writing covered calls in an effort to generate some extra income, or perhaps pick up some downside protection. In the event that these contracts would move into the money, the call writer would be at risk for assignment. However, the market seems to think there's a less than 1-in-4 chance of that coming to fruition, as the delta for these options is docked at 0.23.

Facebook Inc calls were popular prior to today's session, however, albeit in a more traditional sense. In fact, the equity's 20-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio checks in at 2.49, indicating traders have bought to open twice as many calls than puts during the past month. Plus, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.64 sits just 1 percentage point from an annual low, implying that short-term speculators have rarely been more call-heavy. An unwinding of these out-of-the-money bullish bets -- particularly within June series of options -- could end up pressuring the shares lower in the near term.

From a technical perspective, the social networking site has been sluggish lately, shedding about 5.5% year-to-date, and more than 21% on a year-over-year basis. On the charts, the stock remains below its 10-day moving average, which has acted as resistance for the past few weeks.

At last check, FB remains nearly flat with yesterday's close of $25.16.


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