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Trader Hopes Tiffany & Co.'s (TIF) Luster Tarnishes

TIF's August 70 put attracted one big bear on Friday

by 5/20/2013 11:17 AM
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In spite of its year-to-date gain of nearly 36% and hitting a 52-week high of $78.29 during intraday trading, Tiffany & Co. (NYSE:TIF) saw one detractor come out in force on Friday. The item of interest was the August 70 put, where more than 4,000 options changed hands -- by far the session's most active option for the fine jeweler. Almost all of the puts traded in one large block at the ask price of $1.54, and open interest at this strike surged by more than 3,800 contracts over the weekend, confirming buy-to-open activity.

By purchasing the puts to open, Friday's bear is expecting Tiffany & Co. to fall to $68.46 (strike price minus the premium paid) from its week-end close of $78, by August expiration -- that's a slide of just over 12%. In other words, the trader would profit with each step south of that price.

Taking a step back, over the past ten weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), traders have purchased 14,980 puts, compared to 11,837 calls, for a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.27. This abundance of pessimistic bets -- particularly within the June series of options -- could end up translating into options-related support down the road.

Meanwhile, short interest on Tiffany & Co. shares makes up a sizeable 6.4% of its available float, which would take nearly eight sessions to cover, at the security's average daily trading volume. Still, short interest has fallen over 24% over the past month -- a sign that some bears have already capitulated in response to TIF's impressive run.

As I mentioned earlier, Tiffany & Co. (NYSE:TIF) has been on a technical tear in 2013, and has support from its positively trending 10-day moving average. Should that pattern continue through August, Friday's big trader would lose the premium he paid to initiate his long put position.


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Traders Expect QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM) to Tackle Resistance

Speculative players have high hopes for QCOM shares

by 5/20/2013 10:57 AM
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Traders took an interest in QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) call options last Friday, with approximately 43,000 contracts changing hands -- just north of the stock's average daily volume of about 39,000 contracts. As May-dated options expired, call players set their sights on QCOM's June series, which assumed front-month status today.

Specifically, a total of 16,189 contracts traded at the June 67.50 call, with 78% crossing the tape at the ask price. Open interest at this strike surged by 9,684 contracts over the weekend, confirming the addition of new long calls here on Friday.

Calls have been the options of choice on QCOM for quite some time. During the past 50 sessions, speculators have bought to open 2.92 calls for every put on the tech stock, according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). In other words, bullish contracts have nearly tripled their bearish counterparts during this timeframe.

Meanwhile, only 0.8% of QCOM's float is sold short. At the equity's average daily trading volume, it would take less than one day for all of these shorted shares to be covered. Generally speaking, it seems that very few traders are betting against QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM).

In today's session, QCOM is fractionally lower at $66.41. The shares are backing down from pressure in the $67 neighborhood, which has served as resistance since the start of February. Despite several challenges of this region in the intervening months, QCOM hasn't managed a single weekly close above this level.


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Ford Motor Company (F) Option Players Predict Higher Highs

F fans are purchasing call options that expire on Friday

by 5/20/2013 10:57 AM
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Automaker Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is up 0.6% at $15.17, after notching a new two-year high of $15.23 right out of the gate. What's more, options traders are gambling on additional upside for F this week, as evidenced by the early appetite for weekly call contracts.

Within the first 90 minutes of trading, Ford Motor has already seen roughly 38,000 calls cross the tape -- 65% higher than its average intraday call volume. For comparison's sake, fewer than 7,700 F puts have exchanged thus far.

Attracting notable attention has been the weekly 5/24 15.50-strike call, which has seen more than 4,900 contracts change hands at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.07. Volume has exceeded open interest at the strike, and 89% of the calls have gone off on the ask side, hinting at newly bought bullish bets.

By purchasing the calls to open, the buyers expect Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) to topple $15.57 (strike price plus VWAP) by Friday's closing bell, when the weekly options expire. Should the shares halt their quest for new highs and remain south of the strike this week, the most the buyers can lose is the initial premium paid for the calls.

From a broader sentiment standpoint, F's options crowd is skeptically skewed. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.16 sits just 1 percentage point from a 12-month peak. Or, in simpler terms, near-term options traders have been more put-biased just 1% of the time during the past year.


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Near-Term Bulls Converge on Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) (BIDU)

BIDU's weekly call volume accelerates

by 5/20/2013 10:39 AM
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China-based Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) (NASDAQ:BIDU) is on the bullish radar this morning, as roughly 14,000 calls changed hands within the first hour of trading -- more than double the norm. By contrast, fewer than 6,900 puts have crossed the tape. Upon closer examination of the data, it looks as though a number of speculators are betting on the stock to trek higher by week's end.

Most active is the weekly 5/24 100-strike call, where more than 2,600 contracts have been exchanged at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.62. The majority of these calls traded at the ask price, and implied volatility has surged by nearly 12 percentage points since the opening bell -- indications of buy-to-open activity. In other words, these call players are expecting BIDU to rise north of $100.62 (strike price plus the VWAP) by this Friday's close, when these weekly options expire. This reflects an increase of about 3.9% over the stock's current price of $96.87.

Also garnering notable attention today is the weekly 5/24 97.50-strike call, which has seen close to 2,400 contracts change hands -- a healthy portion of them at the ask price, suggesting they were bought. Meanwhile, this strike holds open interest of just 1,480 contracts, signaling the initiation of new positions. In this scenario, traders will profit if BIDU ascends past breakeven at $98.86 (strike price plus the VWAP of $1.36) within the same timeframe.

This bevy of optimism toward the Chinese search engine is simply business as usual. In fact, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have bought to open 254 calls for every 100 puts during the past two weeks. This 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.54 is just 3 percentage points from a yearly acme, confirming speculators have rarely snapped up calls over puts at a faster clip during the last 12 months. However, an unwinding of these bullish bets could end up pushing the shares lower, from a contrarian perspective.

This confidence in Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) is rather puzzling, given the fact that the stock is hovering around 3.4% below breakeven in 2013, and has shed more than 16% on a year-over-year basis. What's more, the shares are on pace to close yet another month below their 10-month moving average, which has served as resistance for more than a year.


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Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ) Bulls Bet on Multi-Year Highs

Traders loaded up on June-dated CSIQ call options

by 5/20/2013 10:08 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Call options were a popular choice on Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ) last Friday, with 4,755 contracts crossing the tape -- representing more than four times the stock's typical daily call activity. By contrast, only 431 CSIQ puts were exchanged during the course of the session.

The most active strike was the June 9 call, where 1,183 contracts were exchanged. Nearly all of these options traded at the ask price, and open interest at this newly front-month strike rose by 1,034 contracts over the weekend. As a result, it's safe to assume traders were buying to open new call options on CSIQ, continuing the recently bullish trend toward solar stocks.

Those June 9 calls changed hands at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.54, which means bullish bettors are banking on Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ) to rally above breakeven at $9.54 (strike price plus VWAP) by the time options expiration rolls around. The shares haven't traded this high since July 2011.

The stock is on the right track so far, up 6.7% at $8.36 after winning a courtroom victory against LDK Solar Co., Ltd (ADR) (NYSE:LDK). Earlier in the session, CSIQ hit a new annual high of $8.50. With 6.9% of the equity's float sold short, it's possible that we're seeing some of the weaker Canadian Solar bears hitting the exits in light of today's news.


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