Trading Floor Blog With Nick Perry

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Weekly Wrap-up - The Dow Jones Industrial Average Gains 310 Points on the Week

11/6/2009 4:37 PM
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Keywords:

DJIA

 

SPX

 

The day ends with the broad market indexes more or less flat. The Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI), S&P Retail Index (RLX), and Dow Jones Transport Index (.TRAN) led while the US Oil Fund (USO), Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH), and Regional Bank HOLDRS (RKH) lagged.

However, my midday post noted today's lackluster action was on the heels of moderate gains for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 310 points, 3%, relative to last Friday's close. The S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite (COMP), and Russell 2000 (RUT) also ended the week up 3%.

As far as my overall thoughts, I think the bounce off support discussed yesterday is the most noteworthy event. The Nasdaq Composite rallied off its recent lows while the S&P 500 kissed the 80-day moving average Bernie Schaeffer discussed last week.

At the very least it shows there's still some sideline money that is willing to jump in. Looking ahead to next week, we still have the Russell 2000 battling overhead resistance. Also, the Dow is in a position to challenge its recent highs. A blue chip breakout always makes the headlines so that could generate some buzz. And that is where I will pick up on Monday. Have a great weekend.


Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1069.3 2.7 points 0.25 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10023.4 17.5 points 0.17 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 2112.4 7.1 points 0.34 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 580.4 -0.8 points -0.14 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) 24.19 -1.24 points -4.9 percent

Charts Courtesy of Thomson Reuters


-posted by Nick Perry
11/6/2009 4:37 PM


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Valero Energy Corporation Draws Heavy December Put Volume

11/6/2009 3:26 PM
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Keywords:

VLO

 

Put volume is unusually heavy on Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) today, with traders setting their sights on the stock's December 18 strike. A block of 5,000 puts crossed the tape near the ask price earlier today, sending implied volatility on this strike up by 1.5%. So far, the December 18 put has traded volume of 8,267 contracts on open interest of 7,833, which suggests that new positions are being added here today.

vlo price chartToday's preference for puts is a deviation from the recent trend for VLO, which has racked up a 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE) call/put volume ratio of 2.43. This reading ranks in the 76th annual percentile, indicating that calls have been purchased over puts at a faster pace than usual during the past couple of weeks.

Today's spike in put volume could be linked to some downbeat refinery news from VLO. The company reported that its 160,000 barrel-per-day refinery in Paulsboro, New Jersey, will be shut down for three weeks for maintenance. The stock is down more than 2% at last check as a result, trading near its lowest point of the day.

However, it's also worth noting that VLO goes ex-dividend today, which means that some of the session's option volume could be linked to arbitrage or dividend capture strategies.


-posted by Elizabeth Harrow
11/6/2009 3:26 PM


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Skepticism Grows Toward Silver Standard Resources Inc.

11/6/2009 2:43 PM
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Keywords:

SSRI

 

Puts were popular yesterday on Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSRI), as traders reacted to the company's third-quarter earnings results. During the course of the session, speculators on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) bought to open 2,005 puts on SSRI, compared to just 74 calls.

SSRI price chartThe bulk of this bearish activity was focused around SSRI's January 2010 19 put, where a block of 2,000 contracts traded at the ask price of $2.05 shortly after the opening bell. Implied volatility rose 1.5% following the transaction, and open interest at this strike jumped overnight from 401 contracts to 2,401 -- confirming the addition of new long puts here on Thursday.

In fact, this option continues to draw a crowd today, with 2,605 contracts changing hands so far. With volume outstripping open interest, it seems likely that new positions are being added at the January 19 put again today.

The current trend toward puts over calls is nothing new for SSRI, which has racked up a 10-day ISE put/call volume ratio of 1.77. This ratio ranks in the 77th annual percentile, confirming that traders have a greater appetite than usual for bearish bets on the stock.

With SSRI trading near $19.15, those January-dated puts are currently at the money. The shares have meandered in a primarily sideways direction in recent months, but the stock is currently maintaining support from its gently rising 50-week moving average.


-posted by Elizabeth Harrow
11/6/2009 2:43 PM


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Midday Market Check - The Dow Jones Industrial Average Hugs the Breakeven Line

11/6/2009 1:18 PM
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Keywords:

DJIA

 

SPX

 

We head into the second half of the session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hugging the breakeven line. An initial dip of nearly 70 points was followed by a bounce. However, the push into positive territory failed at a gain of 38 points and the action since then has been sideways drift. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) are also flat while the Russell 2000 (RUT) shows a small loss.

Today's strongest groups are the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI), S&P Retail Index (RLX), and Dow Jones Transport Index (.TRAN). The US Oil Fund (USO), Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH), and Natural Gas Index (XNG) are the weakest areas.

I ended yesterday's session noting that the Russell 2000 (RUT) was pushing into overhead resistance. The lackluster action here means nothing has changed on that front. Even with that though, the week is shaping up as a positive one. As they stand now, the broad market indexes are showing gains in the neighborhood of 3% on the week. I will follow up after the close with the final figures and usual assortment of graphs.


Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters


-posted by Nick Perry
11/6/2009 1:18 PM


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Option Skews - Relatively Heavy Call Activity on Genworth Financial Inc, NVIDIA Corp, Micron Technology Inc

11/6/2009 10:49 AM
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Keywords:

GNW

 

NVDA

 

MU

 

C

 

Here are the stocks that saw a bias toward call activity in the previous session. This filtered scan is based on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) buy-to-open data. It looks for stocks where the previous day's call volume on the ISE is at least twice as great as the put volume. It then sorts the stocks based on the call volume. Since this is buy-to-open data, this can be a good source for finding stocks where optimism is emerging. Of particular interest to me would be situations where we see call activity on stocks that are still in intermediate-term downtrends. This would be a potentially cautionary sign from the contrarian perspective.

Companies included in today's scan results: Citigroup Inc (C), CVS Corp. (CVS), State Street (STT), Genworth Financial Inc (GNW), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), American International Group Inc (AIG), Motorola (MOT), Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD), NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Micron Technology Inc (MU), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (FCX), Pfizer (PFE), Newmont Mining (NEM), Activision Blizzard Inc (ATVI), D.R. Horton (DHI), General Electric (GE), Harmony Gold Mining Co.. (HMY), Kraft Foods (KFT), BB&T Corp. (BBT), Palm Inc (PALM), KLA-Tencor (KLAC), Oracle Corp. (ORCL), EOG Resources (EOG), CA Inc. (CA), Monster Worldwide (MWW).

Genworth Financial Inc, NVIDIA Corp, and Micron Technology Inc are the charts that stood out to me -

  • The daily chart of Genworth Financial reveals the stock is still holding above the support that has been previously discussed. However, a pattern of descending highs has yet to be broken, which suggests overhead supply has yet to run out.
  • I looked at NVIDIA at the end of September and discussed the pullback and support near 12. The daily chart shows the shares are bouncing off that support and trying to break the recent downtrend.
  • When I looked at Micron Technology last week the equity was nearing a short-term oversold reading and testing its lows from the beginning of the month. The updated weekly chart shows the shares are now showing some signs of life. The equity is up 5% on the week and bouncing out of the short-term oversold condition.


-posted by Nick Perry
11/6/2009 10:49 AM


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Option Skews - Relatively Heavy Put Activity on Wal-Mart Stores Inc and Walgreen Co

11/6/2009 9:23 AM
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Keywords:

WMT

 

WAG

 

SPY

 

MON

 

Here are the stocks that saw a bias toward put activity in the previous session. This filtered scan is based on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) buy-to-open data. It looks for stocks where the previous day's put volume on the ISE is at least twice as great as the call volume. It then sorts the stocks based on the put volume. Since this is buy-to-open data, this can be a good source for finding stocks where skepticism is emerging. Of particular interest to me would be situations where we see put activity on stocks that are still in intermediate-term uptrends. This would be a potentially encouraging sign from the contrarian perspective.

Companies included in today's scan results: SPDR Trust Series I (SPY), Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT), Monsanto Co (MON), Union Pacific Corp (UNP), Walgreen Co (WAG), Barrick Gold (ABX), Silver Standard Resources (SSRI), Iamgold Corp. (IAG), Seagate Technology (STX), IBM (IBM), Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (ANR), Target Corp. (TGT), SanDisk Corp. (SNDK), Ambac Financial Group (ABK), Lexmark International (LXK), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Dow Chemical (DOW).

Just like yesterday, today's table shows relatively light activity. The buy-to-open put volume on the ISE was on the smaller side and fewer stocks met my scan criteria. Wal-Mart Stores Inc and Walgreen Co were two of the stocks that still saw relatively heavy activity.

  • Unfortunately, the daily chart of Wal-Mart Stores shows little for me to get excited about. The shares remain trapped in the sideways coma we recently discussed.
  • Walgreen, on the other hand, is a little more exciting. The daily chart shows a strong uptrend and a recent gap higher. Short-term support sits near 37.


-posted by Nick Perry
11/6/2009 9:23 AM


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Stocks Advancing Amid Heavy Short Interest - Fuel Systems Solutions Inc, Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc, Wynn Resorts Limited

11/6/2009 8:20 AM
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Keywords:

FSYS

 

JAZZ

 

WYNN

 

AMMD

 

As explained in our education section, short interest is a useful sentiment indicator that measures the level of investor pessimism toward a stock. While it isn't always a simple "long only" indicator, it can give you insight into situations where you might see concentrated buying demand. The purpose of this post is to highlight heavily-shorted stocks that could be in the midst of a potential short covering rally. More details about the methodology are listed below.

Companies included in today's scan are: Fuel Systems Solutions Inc (FSYS), Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR), Louisiana-Pacific (LPX), Capitol Bancorp. (CBC), Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc (JAZZ), Jo-Ann Stores (JAS), Lamar Advertising (LAMR), Sotheby's Holdings (BID), MercadoLibre Inc (MELI), Eastman Kodak (EK), American Medical Systems Holdings Inc (AMMD), Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK), Huron Consulting Group Inc. (HURN), Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. (OSIR), Global Crossing. (GLBC), Career Education (CECO), Isle of Capris Casinos (ISLE), Mobile Mini (MINI), Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE), Media General Inc (MEG), American Capital Ltd (ACAS), 99 CENTS ONLY STORES (NDN), American International Group Inc (AIG), Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK), Wynn Resorts Limited (WYNN).

Methodology - the query scans my database of companies which has some basic filters to eliminate stocks that don't trade frequently. The table above is a filtered list of stocks that have at least 10 percent of their float sold short and showed a gain in the previous trading day. I use this as a tool for finding situations where stocks with heavy short interest have begun to move.

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If so, you can get it delivered to your inbox every day. To try it, simply click here and sign in with your Schaeffer's username and password. (If you don't have a Schaeffer's Plus account, you can create one in just seconds by clicking here - it is free.) Once on the alerts page, select "phrase" from the first drop down box, select "intraday", and enter "Stocks Advancing Amid Heavy Short Interest" into the third box. You can repeat that process for other regular posts or change the setting to "author" and enter "Nick Perry" to get all the posts. Just remember, I make multiple posts a day so you will get numerous emails if you select intraday...


-posted by Nick Perry
11/6/2009 8:20 AM


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Stocks Showing Unusually Heavy Volume - Whole Foods Market Inc, Sanmina-SCI Corp, Kforce Inc, Amdocs Ltd

11/6/2009 8:10 AM
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Keywords:

WFMI

 

SANM

 

KFRC

 

DOX

 

Here are the results for today's unusual stock volume scan. The scan looks at the previous day's volume and compares it to the recent average volume. It then sorts the stocks based on those that showed the biggest increase (the "unusual" part) in volume.

Companies included in today's scan are: CVS Corp. (CVS), Protective Life (PL), Wireless Ronin Technologies, Inc. (RNIN), Fuel Systems Solutions Inc (FSYS), Georgia Gulf (GGC), DPL (DPL), Priceline.com Inc (PCLN), Whole Foods Market Inc (WFMI), Varian (VARI), Cbeyond, Inc. (CBEY), Basic Energy Services, Inc. (BAS), Given Imaging. (GIVN), Thoratec (THOR), CF Industries Holdings (CF), Aeropostale Inc (ARO), ANSYS (ANSS), Sanmina-SCI Corp (SANM), American Medical Systems (AMMD), JDA Software Group Inc (JDAS), Ambac Financial Group (ABK), Kforce Inc (KFRC), Amdocs Ltd (DOX), Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI), The Gymboree Corp (GYMB), MercadoLibre Inc (MELI).

These are the top stocks from today's scan, which has some basic filters to eliminate stocks that don't trade frequently. A description of the column headings is below.

  • Move Previous Day - yesterday's percent return.
  • Volume Increase - looks at the previous day's volume and compares it to the recent average volume. It then sorts the stocks based on those that showed the biggest increase (the "unusual" part) in volume.
  • Close - yesterday's closing price.
  • Total Ratings - number of analysts who track the stock, according to Zacks.
  • Buy Percent - percent of the analysts who rate the stock as a "buy". I use this to help gauge sentiment and potential buying demand. If everyone already loves a stock, that means a steady stream of new money will need to enter the stock to fuel a rally.

Note - sentiment data is current as of the previous trading day...


-posted by Nick Perry
11/6/2009 8:10 AM


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Stock Futures Flat Ahead of Jobs Report

11/6/2009 7:56 AM
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Keywords:

SPX

 

DJIA

 

Good morning everyone - welcome to the Friday, employment report day. We start the session with stock futures more or less flat ahead of the monthly jobs data. The S&Ps are a point and a half above fair value. As they stand now, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are suggesting an opening gain of 9 points.


-posted by Nick Perry
11/6/2009 7:56 AM


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Daily Wrap-up - A 203-Point Gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average

11/5/2009 4:36 PM
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Keywords:

DJIA

 

SPX

 

The day ends with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) up 203 points. As the intraday chart shows, the buying demand never really let up. A morning surge was followed by a midday consolidation and a late push to new highs for the session. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) posted gains in the neighborhood of 2% while the Russell 2000 (RUT) jumped 3%.

The PowerShares Clean Energy ETF (PBW), CBOE Internet Index (INX), and Regional Bank HOLDRS (RKH) led while the US Oil Fund (USO), streetTRACKS Gold (GLD), and iShares Treasury Bond (TLT) lagged.

My midday post noted that the technical picture up for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite was firming up. The strong close only cemented that view. On Tuesday, I posted a chart and comments from Bernie Schaeffer regarding the SPX and its 80-day moving average. The updated chart is below and shows the rally off support so that is something to keep in mind as well.

The Russell 2000 was the strongest broad market index today but it is the one that faces near-term resistance. With today's rally the RUT is now testing the overhead hurdle so that is something to keep an eye on tomorrow. And that is where I will pick up in the morning. Have a nice evening.


Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1066.6 20.1 points 1.92 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10006.0 203.8 points 2.08 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 2105.3 49.8 points 2.42 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 581.2 18.0 points 3.20 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) 25.43 -2.29 points -8.3 percent

Charts Courtesy of Thomson Reuters


-posted by Nick Perry
11/5/2009 4:36 PM


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Opportunistic Put Players Sell Premium on Life Technologies

11/5/2009 3:01 PM
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Keywords:

LIFE

 

Despite a positive earnings surprise on Oct. 27, Life Technologies (LIFE) has been unable to break out of its trading range on the charts. The shares have been capped by resistance in the $48-to-$50 zone since mid-September, while the $45 neighborhood has acted as a reliable floor since August.

LIFE price chartThanks to rising support from the stock's 50-day and 80-day moving averages, though, the lower rail of this trading range is moving higher -- even as round-number pressure at the upper rail continues to stymie the shares. Judging by a recent uptick in put volume, some speculators are capitalizing on this sideways shuffle by selling puts.

Specifically, LIFE's February 45 put saw 2,239 contracts cross the tape on Wednesday, with 82% of these puts changing hands at the bid price -- suggesting they were sold. Open interest at this strike rose overnight from 2,433 contracts to 4,444 contracts, confirming that new positions were added here yesterday.

By selling puts at this out-of-the-money strike, the trader is wagering that LIFE will remain above the $45 level through February expiration. Alternatively, this strategy can also be used to buy stock on a pullback, if the option trader is trying to pinpoint an attractive entry price for a long position. On a move below $45, the put seller could potentially be assigned, enabling him or her to acquire the stock at a favorable price. In this scenario, the premium received from the sale of the option can reduce the cost of purchasing the shares.


-posted by Elizabeth Harrow
11/5/2009 3:01 PM


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Speculation Heats Up on JDS Uniphase Corporation Ahead of Earnings

11/5/2009 2:20 PM
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Keywords:

JDSU

 

The latest earnings report from JDS Uniphase Corporation (JDSU) is due to hit the Street after today's closing bell, with analysts expecting the company to report a fiscal first-quarter profit of roughly 2 cents per share. JDSU has a solid history in the earnings spotlight, having exceeded analysts' consensus profit estimates in each of the previous four reporting periods.

JDSU price chartJudging by recent option activity, many speculators are betting on another upside surprise tonight. During the past five days, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) have bought to open 7,239 calls on JDSU, compared to just 416 puts.

In fact, the stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE call/put volume ratio of 9.04 ranks higher than 75% of other such readings taken during the past year, revealing a growing preference for bullish bets over their bearish counterparts.

However, not everyone is feeling confident enough to predict the security's post-earnings direction. Hidden among today's option volume is a small, intermediate-term straddle on JDSU, with the trader purchasing 40 contracts apiece on the stock's at-the-money March 6 put and March 6 call.

By avoiding the front-month series, the speculator in this scenario is saving a bit of cash on implied volatility. JDSU's November 6 put carries implied volatility of 71.5%, while the comparable call weighs in at 77.7% -- far outpacing the stock's one-month historical volatility of 38%. By contrast, implied volatility on their March-dated counterparts is hovering near 60%. But, because the March options carry so much more time value, they're currently more than twice as expensive as the November-dated contracts.

Meanwhile, on the charts, JDSU is up 4.3% ahead of tonight's report. The stock recently breached support from its 20-week moving average, which could now potentially switch roles to act as resistance.


-posted by Elizabeth Harrow
11/5/2009 2:20 PM


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Midday Market Check - The Dow Jones Industrial Average Rallies 160 Points

11/5/2009 11:56 AM
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Keywords:

DJIA

 

SPX

 

We head into the second half of the session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) slightly off its highs but still holding a gain of 160 points. The S&P 500 (SPX) is up more than 1% while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and Russell 2000 (RUT) are each showing gains closer to 2%.

Today's strongest groups are the PowerShares Clean Energy ETF (PBW), CBOE Internet Index (INX), and Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH). The US Oil Fund (USO), streetTRACKS Gold (GLD), and iShares Treasury Bond (TLT) are the only decliners on my list.

I ended yesterday saying- "the daily charts of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have what looks to be the beginning stages of a bounce. Though, the charts would look stronger without the close at the low end of the bar." As shown below, today's rally is definitely firming the technical picture up. The question now is whether the gains hold into the close. I will follow up after the bell with the usual assortment of charts.


Chart Courtesy of Thomson Reuters

Charts Courtesy of Thomson Reuters


-posted by Nick Perry
11/5/2009 11:56 AM


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Option Skews - Relatively Heavy Call Activity on Goldman Sachs Group, Sears Holdings Corp, DryShips Inc, Rambus Inc

11/5/2009 10:47 AM
permanent link


Keywords:

GS

 

SHLD

 

DRYS

 

RMBS

 

Here are the stocks that saw a bias toward call activity in the previous session. This filtered scan is based on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) buy-to-open data. It looks for stocks where the previous day's call volume on the ISE is at least twice as great as the put volume. It then sorts the stocks based on the call volume. Since this is buy-to-open data, this can be a good source for finding stocks where optimism is emerging. Of particular interest to me would be situations where we see call activity on stocks that are still in intermediate-term downtrends. This would be a potentially cautionary sign from the contrarian perspective.

Companies included in today's scan results: Citigroup Inc (C), Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD), Transocean (RIG), Target Corp. (TGT), The DirectTV Group Inc (DTV), Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), Hartford Financial Services (HIG), H.J. Heinz (HNZ), YRC Worldwide Inc (YRCW), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Ambac Financial Group (ABK), Human Genome Sciences (HGSI), Tenet Healthcare (THC), CIGNA Corp. (CI), Kraft Foods (KFT), DryShips Inc. (DRYS), Rambus Inc (RMBS), PSS World Medical (PSSI), Newell Rubbermaid (NWL), MBIA Inc (MBI), Motorola (MOT), Allstate (ALL), McDonald's (MCD).

Goldman Sachs Group, Sears Holdings Corp, DryShips Inc, and Rambus Inc are the charts that stood out to me -

  • I last touched on Goldman Sachs as the stock was pulling back after earnings. A look to the weekly chart shows the shares are attempting to stabilize at a wide of area of congestion. The equity recently ticked to a short-term oversold condition so it is worth watching whether buyers start to step back in here.
  • The weekly chart of Sears Holdings shows the stock is still battling resistance. As discussed last month, I am watching this because it seems like there are plenty of skeptics on the sidelines.
  • The daily chart of DryShips shows a rejection at resistance. This breaks the pattern of higher lows discussed last month. At this stage, the best description of the action would be to call it a trading range. The equity is flirting with short-term oversold levels and nearing the lower end of that range.
  • Rambus continues to be a difficult situation to get a handle on. My last look showed the stock rallying into resistance ahead of earnings. However, the updated daily chart shows the shares once again rolled over. They have now dropped back toward support and hit short-term oversold readings.


-posted by Nick Perry
11/5/2009 10:47 AM


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Option Skews - Relatively Heavy Put Activity on Monsanto Co, Chesapeake Energy Corp, Broadcom Corp, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

11/5/2009 9:16 AM
permanent link


Keywords:

MON

 

CHK

 

BRCM

 

CMG

 

Here are the stocks that saw a bias toward put activity in the previous session. This filtered scan is based on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) buy-to-open data. It looks for stocks where the previous day's put volume on the ISE is at least twice as great as the call volume. It then sorts the stocks based on the put volume. Since this is buy-to-open data, this can be a good source for finding stocks where skepticism is emerging. Of particular interest to me would be situations where we see put activity on stocks that are still in intermediate-term uptrends. This would be a potentially encouraging sign from the contrarian perspective.

Companies included in today's scan results: SPDR Trust Series I (SPY), Union Pacific Corp (UNP), Priceline.com Inc (PCLN), Lifeline Systems (LIFE), Monsanto Co (MON), Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK), Broadcom Corp (BRCM), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG), Cummins (CMI), Jones Apparel Group (JNY), CIENA Corp. (CIEN), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Nabors Industries (NBR), Dow Chemical (DOW), Amphenol (APH), Regions Financial Corp (RF), Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG).

Regular readers might notice that today's table shows relatively light activity. The buy-to-open put volume on the ISE was on the smaller side and fewer stocks met my scan criteria. However, there are a few interesting situations. Monsanto Co, Chesapeake Energy Corp, Broadcom Corp, and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc are the charts that stood out to me -

  • I looked at Monsanto back in June and noted the following -
      "Near the end of last year, the shares put in a bottom near 65 and were steadily grinding higher until they pushed into resistance near 93. The area between that the resistance and the trendline has been steadily compressing and something has to give here. How the equity breaks here will be a good clue to the underlying supply/demand picture."
    The current weekly chart shows the stock broke the uptrend and is now testing the lower end of support. In a situation like this, I would not view the put activity as counter-trend sentiment. The stock has struggled and is on the threshold of a significant breakdown.
  • Last week we saw that Chesapeake Energy was pulling back to retest former resistance as support. The updated daily chart shows the shares appear to be trying to stabilize, though they have yet to break the recent downtrend.
  • The daily chart of Broadcom shows the equity has broken the uptrend discussed a month ago. The first break of a sharp uptrend is a good event to watch. While it can signal an abrupt reversal, many times it is the beginning of a consolidation phase. It looks as if the shares are trying to stabilize here amid the short-term oversold condition. I would expect to see a small bounce, which would set the recent low as the key level to watch. Holding above that low would signal a consolidation while a break would be worrisome.
  • I recently looked at Chipotle Mexican Grill ahead of earnings and discussed the ideal breakout scenario. The updated weekly chart shows that didn't happen. However, the stock remains above support so I would call this more of a holding pattern at this point.


-posted by Nick Perry
11/5/2009 9:16 AM


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Stocks Advancing Amid Heavy Short Interest - Ambac Financial Group Inc, Blackboard Inc, MBIA Inc, Netlogic Microsystems Inc

11/5/2009 8:11 AM
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Keywords:

ABK

 

BBBB

 

MBI

 

NETL

 

As explained in our education section, short interest is a useful sentiment indicator that measures the level of investor pessimism toward a stock. While it isn't always a simple "long only" indicator, it can give you insight into situations where you might see concentrated buying demand. The purpose of this post is to highlight heavily-shorted stocks that could be in the midst of a potential short covering rally. More details about the methodology are listed below.

Companies included in today's scan are: Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK), Triad Guaranty (TGIC), Blackboard Inc (BBBB), Sonic Solutions (SNIC), MBIA Inc (MBI), Blockbuster (BBI), Almost Family, Inc (AFAM), CardioNet, Inc. (BEAT), Netlogic Microsystems Inc (NETL), Swift Energy (SFY), NetSuite Inc. (N), Sohu.com (SOHU), Brasil Telecom Participacoes S.A. (BRP), Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated (RBA), MOLINA HEALTHCARE INC (MOH), Ameristar Casinos (ASCA), St. Joe (JOE), Landry's Restaurants (LNY), Conn's (CONN), SolarWinds Inc (SWI), Pulte Homes (PHM), Perini Corp. (PCR), Lennar Corp. (LEN), MetroPCS Communications, Inc. (PCS), Trex (TWP).

Methodology - the query scans my database of companies which has some basic filters to eliminate stocks that don't trade frequently. The table above is a filtered list of stocks that have at least 10 percent of their float sold short and showed a gain in the previous trading day. I use this as a tool for finding situations where stocks with heavy short interest have begun to move.

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-posted by Nick Perry
11/5/2009 8:11 AM


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Stocks Showing Unusually Heavy Volume - Pacer International Inc, Garmin Ltd, Xing Mobile Communication Co Ltd, Hypercom Corp

11/5/2009 7:58 AM
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Keywords:

PACR

 

GRMN

 

QXM

 

HYC

 

Here are the results for today's unusual stock volume scan. The scan looks at the previous day's volume and compares it to the recent average volume. It then sorts the stocks based on those that showed the biggest increase (the "unusual" part) in volume.

Companies included in today's scan are: Pacer International Inc (PACR), Landry's Restaurants (LNY), Ambac Financial Group (ABK), MTR Gaming Group (MNTG), Rehabcare Group (RHB), Garmin Ltd (GRMN), Pegasystems (PEGA), Qiao Xing Mobile Communication Co Ltd (QXM), WebMD Health Corp. (WBMD), MDC Partners (MDCA), Star Scientific (STSI), JAKKS Pacific (JAKK), North American Energy Partners Inc (NOA), Solera Holdings, Inc. (SLH), Speedway Motorsports (TRK), Blackboard (BBBB), Peet's Coffee & Tea (PEET), RiskMetrics Group, Inc. (RMG), Wellcare Group (WCG), Carmike Cinemas (CKEC), American Capital Ltd (ACAS), Netlogic Microsystems (NETL), Sonic Solutions (SNIC), Zebra Technologies (ZBRA), Hypercom Corp (HYC).

These are the top stocks from today's scan, which has some basic filters to eliminate stocks that don't trade frequently. A description of the column headings is below.

  • Move Previous Day - yesterday's percent return.
  • Volume Increase - looks at the previous day's volume and compares it to the recent average volume. It then sorts the stocks based on those that showed the biggest increase (the "unusual" part) in volume.
  • Close - yesterday's closing price.
  • Total Ratings - number of analysts who track the stock, according to Zacks.
  • Buy Percent - percent of the analysts who rate the stock as a "buy". I use this to help gauge sentiment and potential buying demand. If everyone already loves a stock, that means a steady stream of new money will need to enter the stock to fuel a rally.

Note - sentiment data is current as of the previous trading day...


-posted by Nick Perry
11/5/2009 7:58 AM


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Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average Suggest a 40-Point Gain

11/5/2009 7:51 AM
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Keywords:

DJIA

 

SPX

 

Good morning everyone - welcome to Thursday. We start the day with stock futures showing an upside bias. The S&Ps are 5 points above fair value. As they stand now, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are suggesting an opening gain of 40 points.


-posted by Nick Perry
11/5/2009 7:51 AM


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