Calls have been the option of choice lately on Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB: sentiment, chart, options). The stock sports a hefty 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE) call/put volume ratio of 6.72, as speculators on this exchange have bought to open nearly seven times more bullish bets than bearish during the past two weeks. This ratio ranks higher than 91.7% of other such readings taken during the past year, as calls have rarely been purchased over puts at a faster pace.
In fact, on Friday alone, traders on the ISE bought to open 2,002 calls on BIIB, compared to just 97 puts. The day's most active strike was the November 50 call, where 9,535 contracts crossed the tape. Not far behind was the November 45 call, where 5,621 contracts changed hands. Open interest rose at both strikes over the weekend, confirming that traders added new calls here on Friday.
In fact, BIIB's November 45 call is continuing to draw a crowd in today's session, with 2,150 contracts trading by midday. Implied volatility on this strike was up 0.8% at last check, which points to rising demand for this at-the-money call.
Meanwhile, BIIB's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) confirms the apparently upbeat bias revealed by recent ISE option volume. The stock's SOIR is now resting at 0.56, with calls nearly doubling puts among options set to expire within three months. This SOIR ranks higher than only 14% of comparable readings taken during the past 52 weeks, suggesting that short-term speculators have rarely been more bullishly aligned.
In the front-month series, last Friday's most popular option strikes are the center of attention. Peak call open interest of 9,738 contracts can be found at the November 50 strike, while another noteworthy accumulation of 9,429 contracts lies at the November 45 call. This configuration reveals that front-month call players are split between playing BIIB's at-the-money 45 strike, and the narrowly out-of-the-money 50 strike.
On the put side, the November 45 strike carries peak open interest of 5,535 contracts. Like their call-trading counterparts, put players apparently feel an affinity for at-the-money options on BIIB.
Elsewhere, short sellers have recently closed out a large number of bearish bets on the biotech stock, with short interest tumbling by 7.7% during the past month. Now, short interest accounts for 3.1% of the equity's float.
Judging by BIIB's sharp price plunge in late October, many of these shorts were most likely taking profits on winning positions. The equity dropped drastically after a new review of Tysabri was commenced by a European Union panel, with regulators citing a high occurrence of rare brain infections connected with the drug. Analysts at Bernstein observed shortly thereafter that uncertainties about Tysabri could deter potential suitors from launching a bid to acquire BIIB.
As a result of its fundamental woes, BIIB is extending a long-term slump beneath pressure from its 10-month and 20-month moving averages. These trendlines have acted as double-barreled resistance since December 2007, and the shares haven't managed a single monthly finish atop these moving averages in the interim.
From a shorter-term perspective, BIIB is also staring up at resistance from its 20-day and 32-day moving averages. The stock breached these formerly supportive trendlines back in early October, and its downward momentum has since accelerated. With the 20-day moving average now looming in the same region as BIIB's recent bearish gap, the mid-40s have emerged as an area of stiff resistance for the shares.
Against this troubling backdrop, it's hard to believe that the recent rush of buy-to-open call volume truly represents bullish hopes for BIIB. Instead, it's possible that the remaining short sellers are simply looking to hedge their bets against a potential rebound. In either case, the glut of call open interest at the November 45 and 50 strikes could act as a potential headwind for the equity through the next couple of weeks.
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