It's a little difficult to follow on the first chart, but ever since the dollar broke below its 80-week trendline the second quarter of 2006 it has not been retaken.
The declining 80-week moving average is currently at 77.64; the U.S. Dollar Index (DX/Y) closed on Friday at 77.12.
The second chart shows that increases in 10-week historical volatility (HV) to 10% and above have generally been associated with rallies in the dollar and have generally occurred near dollar peaks. The major exception occurred this year, when an HV surge occurred during the late stages of a downtrend, but now HV is surging again on the rally.
The current 10-week HV for the dollar is 11.44% - it had actually moved briefly below 5% about a year ago.
The Case for Big Moves in IWM and QQQ
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