Monday Morning Outlook: Are Investors Gloomy Enough?

The bulls proved their resilience last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained a solid 2.5 % on the week, despite a mixed bag of earnings and economic news. Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, examines the September-November price action to date and finds an eerie replay of the May-July period. Todd also notes the stubborn resistance at the 1,100 level on the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Next, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White notes the underperformance of small-cap stocks in the recent rally, and examines the relative strength of the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) vs. the DJIA. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

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A 200-point rally on Thursday brought the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) back above 10,000, a level it has been flirting with since mid-October. It had every reason to tank on Friday, when unemployment figures came in worse than unexpected. Instead, the Dow held. Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, examines several technical and sentiment indicators, including the performance of the CBOE Market Volatility Index, that help explain why the market held support last week. Next, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a look at November seasonality for the SPX during the past 30 years, and discovers that this once tried-and-true period of positive returns isn't quite as dependable as it once was. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) once again played tag with the 10,000 mark last week, but headed sharply lower as the weekend drew nearer. Still, the Dow did manage to outperform its major counterparts for October, carving out a gain of 0.01% versus the S&P 500 Index's (SPX) loss of 2% and the Nasdaq Composite's (COMP) drop of 3.6%. The market remains rife with concerns, and Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, zeroes in on several of these potential hurdles in this week's commentary. In addition, Todd takes a closer look at put/call ratios for the SPX and the CBOE Market Volatility Index's (VIX) massive spike to close out the week. Next, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a look at the U.S. dollar, the massive amount of skepticism that has been directed toward the greenback lately, and the potential impact of this sentiment reading. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at 9,995.91 on Friday, Oct. 16, tantalizingly close to the 10,000 mark it temporarily conquered earlier in the week. Last week, earnings was the name of the game on Wall Street, and most companies acquitted themselves pretty well. How did the market react? It backpedaled, finishing Friday at 9,972.18, less than 30 points from the millennial mark. Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, revisits his discussion of the prior week, in which he forecast the likelihood of some short-term speed bumps. He sees continued churning in the weeks ahead. Todd also recommends your attention to Bernie Schaeffer's SENTIMENT magazine. Next, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a look at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence, a long-term market indicator better known as the MACD. Rocky finds that MACD is flashing a strong buy signal. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

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Well, the bulls couldn't make it stick, but even so, didn't it feel a whole lot better going up than it did going down? A year after plunging through the 10,000 mark in the midst of a financial, banking and credit crisis, and seven months after bottoming at 6,547.05 on March 9, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) regained the millennial milestone. Although it couldn't maintain that perch by the week's close, the week still went into the "W" column, and 10,000 was just a sniff away. Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, sees this rally continuing, but focuses his technical analysis on a few short-term speed bumps that could materialize within the longer-term uptrend. Next, the coming week begins a five-week expiration cycle, and Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a look at why these weeks are often been bearish -- with the notable exception of the most recent occurrence in July. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

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Driven by another solid round of economic data and a surprise quarterly profit from Alcoa Inc. (AA), the bulls stampeded back onto Wall Street last week. Well-rested from their two-week hiatus, bullish investors found renewed hope for the global economic recovery in better-than-expected manufacturing and sales data, as well as an interest-rate hike from the Land Down Under. While earnings are all the rage on the Street, next week is expiration week, and Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, revisits this volatile topic and its potential implications for the week ahead. Todd also examines the bearish tone in a lot of recent financial commentary. Lest we forget about earnings, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a closer look at Alcoa as the starting gun to earnings season, and whether the pace the aluminum giant sets has any impact on the rest of the market. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

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Despite posting back-to-back weekly losses, Wall Street still finished September and the third quarter with solid gains. In fact, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) logged its seventh consecutive monthly gain. Still, the tone on the economic front was somewhat somber last week, as traders confronted weaker-than-expected data on the manufacturing and the jobs fronts. Looking for a leg up on the coming week, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, revisits key levels for the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) and the SPX, while examining the possibility of a sharper pullback due to three potential risks to the bullish case. Then, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a closer look at the SPX's seven-month winning streak, similar historical occurrences, and the potential implications for the current market environment. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

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Housing data, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and the Group of 20, oh my! Last week's data deluge nearly sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) careening into the 10,000 level for the first time since Oct. 7, 2008, but the bulls quickly ran out of steam following the FOMC's policy statement. As a result, the DJIA peaked less than 100 points shy of 10K on Wednesday, and spent the rest of the week careening lower. Looking for a leg up on the coming week, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, reviews key sentiment indicators, including the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) and the 20-day historical volatility for the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Todd zeroes in on key support and resistance levels for the SPX and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT), offering levels to keep an eye on heading into next week. Then, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White drills down on historical data concerning fourth-quarter seasonality for the Dow, revealing that Santa Claus may yet be paying a visit to Wall Street. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

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Solid economic reports and testimonials by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and President Barack Obama provided plenty of fuel for Wall Street bulls last week. Obama used the anniversary of the Lehman Brothers collapse to stump for tighter regulations on the financial sector, while Bernanke all but declared the "all clear" on the U.S. recession. As a result, all three of the major U.S. indexes soared more than 2% for the week. Looking ahead, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, reviews important levels on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT), and takes a look at what to expect in the week following quadruple-witching expiration. Todd also examines why the sentiment backdrop could support higher prices. Then, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a closer look at the supposed increase in volatility during quadruple-witching expiration weeks and comes to a surprising conclusion, including why Monday could be a rather rough trading session. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

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Improving economic data was once again the center of attention last week, and Wall Street bulls seized the opportunity to send stocks steadily higher throughout the week. Even China got in on the act late in the week, while merger and acquisition activity also boosted investor sentiment, allowing the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to chalk up its seventh win in nine weeks. Looking ahead to next week, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, examines the effect of triple witching and looks at some key resistance levels in some of the major indexes. He concludes that these are "speed bumps" rather than warning flags. Then, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a closer look at the practice of "window dressing" and whether the buying of outperforming stocks and the selling of underperforming issues during the last two weeks of a quarter has had any impact on the market in 2009. We wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

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