Sentiment Snapshot: Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Though the shares of iPhone issue Apple Inc. (AAPL: sentiment, chart, options) are leading the tech sector into the red today, bullish bettors aren't discouraged. The stock's April 90 and 100 calls are among the most popular on the Pacific Stock Exchange this afternoon, with a combined volume of more than 14,000 contracts crossing the tape. Also seeing heavy volume is the security's March 100 call, with more than 7,500 contracts changing hands across all 6 exchanges.

In comparison, the most active bearish bet is AAPL's March 80 put, which has seen volume of fewer than 6,800 contracts cross the tape so far today.

The optimistic option activity comes despite a negative analyst note from Morgan Stanley. This morning, the brokerage firm lowered its PC unit and average-selling-price (ASP) predictions for 2009 and 2010, citing cannibalization from netbooks – which are inexpensive versions of notebooks – and weaker-than-expected demand.

The investment bank now expects a 24% decline in global PC market revenue in 2009, driven by an 11% unit decline and a 15% ASP decline. For 2010, Morgan Stanley forecast a 3% pullback in industry revenue growth, driven by 2% unit growth offset by a 5% ASP decline.

Pouring salt into Apple's wounds was Pacific Crest analyst Andy Hargreaves. The broker today slashed his fiscal-year revenue forecast for the Silicon Valley sultan by 6% to $33.3 billion, well below the consensus estimate of $35.5 billion. What's more, Hargreaves now predicts AAPL's 2009 earnings per share to dock at $5.34, compared to previous predictions of $5.67 per share, citing grim economic realities.

The analysts' concerns mimic those expressed by RBC Capital last week, with the brokerage firm on Friday warning that intensifying competition for the iPhone increases risk to AAPL's valuation. RBC stated that, while the smartphone's leadership remains solidly intact, challengers such as the Palm Pre and Nokia N86 may be disruptive on pricing and marketing.

Technically speaking, the shares of AAPL are currently flirting with a deficit of 3.2 points, or 3.55%, from Friday's close, and are hovering just shy of the 88 level. The security is now poised to close the week back beneath double-barreled resistance at its 10-week and 20-week moving averages, which have capped all but a handful of AAPL's rally attempts since June 2008.

What's more, the equity is fast approaching a test of support in the 80-to-85 neighborhood, which has acted as a foothold for the tech concern both recently and in 2006-2007. A weekly close beneath this region would place AAPL in territory not explored since October 2006.

Despite the shares stagnating on the charts recently, the majority of ranking analysts are firmly entrenched in Apple's bullpen. The stock harbors an impressive 12 "strong buys" and 4 "buy" ratings, Zacks reports, compared to 6 lukewarm "holds" and a lone "sell" or worse rating.

In addition, the average 12-month price target on the equity rests at a lofty $123.67, according to Thomson Reuters, in a range AAPL hasn't ventured into since September 2008. In order to attain this ambitious target, the shares would need to muscle more than 40% higher from their current trading range.

Overall, should the lingering bulls in the brokerage bunch reevaluate their positions on AAPL, the stock could be vulnerable to additional selling pressure. A fresh batch of downgrades and/or price-target reductions, or another round of fundamental concerns, could act as catalysts to the downside for the shares, potentially pressuring AAPL beneath support in the 80 region.

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