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Why Toll Brothers Should Be On Your Radar

Outperforming TOL remains under-loved on Wall Street

by 8/2/2012 1:30:54 PM
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Housing concern Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL - 29.39) has been a broad-market standout, outperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by more than 10 percentage points during the past 60 sessions. In fact, the stock is currently trading in the black, while the major market indexes are swimming in red ink. Just last week TOL notched a five-year high of $31.34, and now boasts a 52-week gain of more than 51%. What's more, the security recently pulled back to its 10-week moving average -- a long-term form of support, along with its 20-week cohort -- suggesting now could be an opportunity for bulls to jump in.

Weekly Chart of TOL since October 2011 With 10-Week and 20-Week Moving Averages

Despite TOL's upward momentum -- or encouraging earnings reports from sector peers PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) and Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH) -- Wall Street remains wary of the stock. Currently, just half the 14 analysts following TOL consider it worthy of a "buy" or better rating. Plus, the consensus 12-month price target stands at a meager $30.72 -- just a hair's breadth from TOL's closing price of $28.97 on Wednesday. A wave of upgrades or price-target boosts could lure even more buyers to the outperformer.

In the same vein, short interest on the security accounts for a healthy 7.4% of TOL's total available float. In fact, at the stock's average pace of trading, it would take roughly four sessions to buy back all of these bearish bets -- pointing to ample fuel for a potential short-covering rally.

Skepticism is prevalent in the options pits, as well. During the past 10 sessions on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), traders have bought to open twice as many TOL puts as calls. Furthermore, the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 2.04 stands in the 89th percentile of its annual range, suggesting option buyers have initiated pessimistic positions at a much faster-than-usual clip during the past couple of weeks.

As a result, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) now sits at 1.87, indicating that puts nearly double calls among options slated to expire within three months. Plus, this ratio sits just four percentage points from a 52-week peak, implying that short-term options traders have rarely been more put-heavy on TOL during the past year. An unwinding of pessimism in the options arena could also translate into a contrarian boon for TOL.

Please note that TOL earnings are due on Aug. 22. According to Thomson Reuters, the company has exceeded the consensus per-share estimate in three of the past four quarters. Investors betting on an extended uptrend for TOL should consider buying the stock's in-the-money December 23 call, which allows time for any earnings-related volatility to shake out. This option was last offered for $7.40. What's more, the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 37% stands higher than just 20% of all other readings of the past year, suggesting TOL options are attractively priced at the moment, relatively speaking.

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