Despite the constant negative sentiment, this market continues to defy you. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is up almost 12% so far this year and we still have about five months left. Since the June bottom, the SPX has rallied more than 10% and continued to make higher highs and higher lows. Digging through all the headlines has been quite a headache the past seven months. From the Federal Reserve minutes, comments from European leaders, and jobs numbers, to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s (NYSE:JPM) trading blunders, botched IPOs from Silicon Valley, and the pending fiscal cliff, investors are quick to throw their hands up from confusion and disgust.
Despite the flurry of negative headlines, the market trudges on. Listening to the loud and vocal short sellers and underinvested retail traders, many people think this market stinks. You tell me doom and gloom and soup lines are coming to a street near me. You tell me it is all rigged and I can't make money buying this stock market.
Taking a step back from some of the short-term volatility, we have actually witnessed quite an orderly market the past few months. We have experienced a series of higher highs and higher lows since the June bottom. From an even wider perspective, the market has rallied more than 110% since the March 2009. You continue to get louder and proclaim that the rally doesn't make sense and you will be proven right. Well, the market doesn't care what you think it should be doing. The market will do what it wants, when it wants.
Now, this isn't a loud and vocal plea to buy right here, right now. Checking on the charts, it actually looks like the SPX is nearing potential resistance from its upper channel and price level resistance near the 1,410 area. While I wouldn't be surprised if we consolidate or experience a pullback in the short-term, I think your overwhelming amount of pessimism toward this market makes the long-term reward well worth the potential downside risk. (Click chart to enlarge.)
Mid-Caps Nearing a Triple of March 2009 Lows
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