The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is looking at a second straight win today, with futures pointed solidly higher ahead of the bell. Traders will keep one eye trained on the final reading for first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). However, most of the day's chatter should revolve around gold, with the commodity poised to drop to its lowest level since August 2010.
"The CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-Note (TNX) bounced off the 2.5% level again yesterday, so that's an obvious area the equity bulls would like to see broken to the downside," noted Schaeffer's Senior Trading Analyst Bryan Sapp. "However, it was encouraging to see yields higher along with stocks. Over the past week or so, higher bond yields almost certainly meant stocks were trading lower. Perhaps Tuesday's rally was a show of the market's acceptance of higher rates, and could be a sign that we don't necessarily need rates to plummet in order to continue to rally. That said, a big rate implosion would likely lead to a massive stock market rally."
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are nearly 83 points above fair value.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) saw 856,425 call contracts traded on Tuesday, compared to 503,173 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio fell to 0.59, while the 21-day moving average stayed at 0.67.
From the Trading Floor
"This is strictly anecdotal, but social media and major media pundits were all talking about the selling bounce yesterday morning," commented Sapp. "This leads me to believe that there's potential for a rout of the bears, should the bad news subside. It's funny how everyone is bullish for months, and then we sell off 5-10% from all-time highs, and everyone is suddenly in bear mode. Because of this, I would surmise that the pain trade is higher, and everyone's 'bounce target' from these lows will likely be overshot to the upside."
Currencies and Commodities
Earnings and Economic Data
Slated for today are the regularly scheduled crude inventories report and the final first-quarter GDP figures. Entering the earnings confessional are Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), General Mills (GIS), Monsanto (MON), and Paychex (PAYX).
The Case for Big Moves in IWM and QQQ
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