The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) is bracing for a triple-digit drop right out of the gate. The risk-off backdrop follows Ukraine's call on Sunday to mobilize its troops after Russian forces seized control of Crimea. Secretary of State John Kerry will head to Kiev on Tuesday to assess the situation. Meanwhile, back on the homefront, traders will have a number of data points to digest, including reports on factory activity, personal income, construction spending, and auto sales.
Elsewhere, as Schaeffer's Senior Trading Analyst Bryan Sapp noted, "Friday's action was very unsettling for many bulls. Both the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) broke to fresh all-time highs in the morning, but that entire move reversed in the afternoon on news out of Ukraine. Going forward, resistance levels to watch are 1,860 on the S&P 500 and 1,190 on the RUT. Potential support, meanwhile, is at 1,820-1,850 for the S&P 500 and 1,160 for the RUT."
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2 Minute (INDEXDJX:.DJI) are nearly 125 points below breakeven.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) saw 1,422,140 call contracts traded on Friday, compared to 895,915 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio jumped to 0.63, while the 21-day moving average stayed at 0.60.
From the Trading Floor
"A few signs of excessive optimism toward the markets surfaced on Friday," said Sapp. "The State Street and North American Investor Confidence poll showed the highest North American reading ever seen. Additionally, E*TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:ETFC) released data that showed its average daily trading revenues over the past year. These revenues made a fresh four-year high this month, and this is a sign that retail investors are entering the stock market again. As a contrarian bull, this is not a welcome sign."
Currencies and Commodities
Earnings and Economic Data
The purchasing managers manufacturing index (PMI) and the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index are slated for release today, along with data for personal income and outlays, construction spending, and motor vehicle sales. Companies reporting earnings include Dendreon (DNDN), MBIA (MBI), SolarCity (SCTY), and Stratasys (SSYS).
The Case for Big Moves in IWM and QQQ
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