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Posted on 3/12/2010 2:18 PM
Publication: "MarketWatch"
Publication title: "GE has been an investor disaster under Jeff Immelt"
Publication Date: 3/8/2010
KeyWords: GE
Brief Summary:
In this negatively skewed article, the author highlights the shortcomings of General Electric Company (GE) by comparing CEO Jeff Immelt with widely respected Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) boss Warren Buffett. The article observes that shareholders "have lost tens of billions of dollars" since Immelt took the reins, even though the CEO has snagged "around $90 million in salary, cash and pension benefits" during the same time frame. Conversely, the bulk of Buffett's net worth is tied up in his own stock.
As the author observes, Immelt's personal fortunes aren't directly tied to GE's stock performance, since the CEO has purchased relatively little GE stock with his own capital. So, whether investors win or lose, Immelt's personal bottom line continues to benefit. While the author adds that external factors have also influenced GE's share price during the past decade, it's intriguing to note that the overall U.S. equities market has gained about 10% since Immelt took the top spot at GE, while shares of the blue-chip conglomerate have lost 40% of their value.
Contrarian Takeaway:
On the charts, shares of GE have been treading water in the mid-teens for quite some time now, with the equity exploring the same stomping grounds it inhabited during 1996 and 1997 -- well before Immelt assumed his current role as CEO.
However, GE is making a noble attempt to shed its laggard status. The stock has added nearly 9% in 2010, compared to a gain of just 1.8% for the broader Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Resistance from the $17 level remains stubbornly intact, but rising support from GE's 10-week and 20-week moving averages could help the shares conquer this looming hurdle.
However, the general lack of skepticism on GE is a point of concern from a contrarian standpoint. The stock has attracted massive call buying on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) during the past 10 days, with nearly five times more calls than puts bought to open. Plus, short interest accounts for a nearly negligible 0.6% of the security's float.
While the technical outlook for GE is improving, the stock won't truly be out of the woods until it topples intermediate-term resistance at $17. But, with so many traders already camped out in the bullish bandwagon, GE could have trouble finding enough new buyers to continue its intermediate-term uptrend. For now, it seems a safe bet that Immelt's financial performance will continue to outshine that of his company.
Elizabeth Harrow (eharrow@sir-inc.com)
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Posted on 3/11/2010 2:05 PM
Publication: "The Wall Street Journal"
Publication title: "EHealth Looks Fit for a Rally"
Publication Date: 3/11/2010
KeyWords: EHTH
Brief Summary:
eHealth Inc. (EHTH) shares have stalled recently, and The Wall Street Journal cites growing concerns that the U.S. government will launch an online health care exchange that competes with the company. However, the Journal cites comments from Cowen & Co.'s Jim Friedland, who says that Blue Cross Blue Shield has garnered more business from eHealth than from Massachusetts' exchange. Furthermore, the article notes that eHealth would be a "natural candidate" to host the government's service, should it choose to outsource.
Ultimately, the author believes that eHealth can stand on its own in any event. Specifically, "the company is debt free, with an enterprise value of about 11 times free-cash flow." Given this valuation, the Journal states that investors should have plenty of protection against any surprises from Congress.
Contrarian Takeaway:
Judging from EHTH's sentiment backdrop, investors aren't buying the Journal's optimistic outlook. For instance, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 3.76 arrives at an annual bearish peak, as puts nearly quadruple calls among near-term options. Elsewhere, short interest on EHTH soared nearly 50% last month, resulting in roughly 8% of the stock's float sold short.
Even Wall Street analysts are jumping on the bearish bandwagon. According to Zacks, nine of the 14 brokerage firms following EHTH rate the shares a "hold" or worse. Meanwhile, Thomson Reuters reports that the average 12-month price target rests at $17.38, a discount to the stock's close at $17.50 on Wednesday.
This wealth of negativity is quite surprising, given that EHTH has bested the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a relative-strength basis by more than 16% during the prior 60 trading days. The shares continue to rally higher along support at their 10-week and 20-week moving averages, and have even broken above former resistance at their 80-week trendline. The stock is staring up at resistance in the 18.50 region, but this could be a minor speed bump for EHTH given its current momentum, especially if bearish investors begin to come around to the Journal's way of thinking.
Joseph Hargett (jhargett@sir-inc.com)
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Posted on 3/10/2010 7:17 AM
Publication: "Fortune"
Publication title: "Citigroup shares: No longer toxic?"
Publication Date: 3/9/2010
KeyWords: C
Brief Summary:
While the article is quick to point out that Citigroup (C) lost billions in the financial crisis and is still loaded with toxic assets, the writer found several sources who believe the worst is over, among them Bruce Berkowitz, who manages the $11 billion Fairholme fund and was recently named Morningstar's U.S. stock manager of the past decade. Berkowitz recently bought more than $700 million worth of Citigroup shares.
Berkowitz argues that the firm's balance sheet is slowly improving. He calculates that even its bad assets now return more than 5%. Furthermore, Citigroup has some of its highest capital ratios in years after the U.S. Treasury and other regulators thoroughly examined its balance sheet.
What's more, he says, the stock is cheap. It trades at 0.8 times tangible book value, which doesn't include goodwill or other intangibles like intellectual property. That's almost half the ratio of its peers.
Berkowitz isn't the only one to jump on the stock. Hedge fund legend George Soros bought nearly 100 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2009; John Paulson of Paulson & Co. added more than 200 million shares; and Daniel Loeb's Third Point bought shares worth $83 million.
"It's unclear to me how much our shareholders are going to make," says Berkowitz, "but it's becoming quite clear to me they're not going to lose."
Contrarian Takeaway:
While the article is optimistic, sentiment elsewhere is mixed. Wall Street has its doubts about the firm. According to Zacks, the stock has earned seven "strong buys," 10 "holds," and two "sells." This configuration leaves ample room for potential upgrades that could boost the shares higher.
On the other hand, options players remain optimistic about the stock's prospects. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio for C stands at 0.48, as call open interest doubles put open interest among options slated to expire in less than three months. This ratio is also lower than 92% of all those taken during the past 12 months, indicating that short-term options players have been more optimistically aligned toward the shares only 8% of the time.
Technically speaking, the equity has gained a respectable 7.5% since the beginning of 2010, jumping higher off support at its 10-day moving average and climbing above short-term resistance at the 3.50 level. The security has also tackled its 10-week trendline, which is turning higher. A continuation of this technical strength could shake loose the rest of the bears, creating fresh buying pressure.
Jocelynn Drake (jdrake@sir-inc.com)
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Posted on 3/9/2010 3:52 PM
Publication: "Fortune"
Publication title: "5 Reasons to buy Apple stock again"
Publication Date: 3/9/2010
KeyWords: AAPL
Brief Summary:
Though some would argue that Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) long-term journey higher may be coming to an end, this Fortune blog lists five reasons why the stock may have more fuel in its tank.
Citing Bob Turner, Chief Investment Officer of Turner Investments, the columnist first points out the rampant growth of tech-related spending. Turner estimates that technology spending could be about double the GDP, "growing in the range of 8% to 10%" thanks to "must-have products like the iPhone, a booming app store, and [Apple's] increasingly popular notebooks."
On that note, the blogger calls Apple "the most innovative company in the world," pointing to its always-packed stores and the firm's ability to "create a need" rather than meet demand. Plus, Turner says, the company hasn't even maxed out the iPhone's market share, with "only about 3% of total handsets sold now."
Furthermore, Apple's earnings growth has been "phenomenal," Turner argues, noting the company's compound annual earnings growth rate of more than 85% over the last seven years. In that same vein, the investment manager points out that AAPL is trading at 17 times the 2010 consensus earnings estimate, and 15 times the 2011 estimate, making its price-to-earnings ratio "attractive" even when the security is trading well above $200 per share.
Contrarian Takeaway:
On the other hand, one could argue that AAPL's bullish bandwagon may be getting crowded – often a bearish signal, from a contrarian standpoint. Though the shares of AAPL tagged a new all-time high of $225 today, the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently rests at a lofty 70, verging on "overbought" territory.
Plus, according to Zacks, 35 of the 38 ranking analysts already deem AAPL a "buy" or better rating – 30 of which consist of "strong buy" endorsements. In addition, Thomson Reuters pegs the average 12-month price target on the stock at $255.05 – nearly 30 points above the equity's new all-time acme. This extreme bullish bias among the brokerage bunch leaves little room for upbeat analyst attention to help fuel the stock's rally.
In similar fashion, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.98 ranks in the 34th percentile of its annual range. In other words, short-term options speculators have been more optimistically aligned toward AAPL only 34% of the time during the past year.
In conclusion, while Apple's fundamental backdrop appears solid, the security's sentiment backdrop may leave contrarian investors questioning how much – or little – room is left in the bullpen.
Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com)
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Posted on 3/8/2010 9:26 AM
Publication: "Barron's"
Publication title: "And the iPhone Goes to..."
Publication Date: 3/8/2010
KeyWords: QCOM
Brief Summary:
Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) shares have careened lower from their 52-week high of $49.80 on Jan. 8, to Friday's close at $38.76, and this Barron's article places much of the blame on Apple Inc. (AAPL). The iPhone guru was expected to announce a Verizon Wireless (VZ) version of the popular smartphone, one for which QCOM would have made the wireless access chip. When AAPL failed to make such an announcement, investors fled QCOM in droves.
However, the author argues that you shouldn't hang up on QCOM just yet. The company had strong revenue from other handset makers, including Motorola (MOT), Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), Palm Inc. (PALM), and Nokia Inc. (NOK). Additionally, the article says that strong partnerships with these customers should overshadow reports that average asking prices (ASP), a key sales metric for the industry, are declining for QCOM.
Charter Equity Research analyst Ed Snyder supports this rationale. "We've never been a fan of the blended ASP metric because it is widely misrepresented as a good indicator of price erosion when it is not," says Snyder, who still rates Qualcomm a "buy." In any event, Snyder contends that ASP "will probably improve in June" anyway.
Contrarian Takeaway:
An iPhone contract represents real growth potential for QCOM in a highly competitive industry. So, it's completely understandable that investors hoping for such a contract would jump ship when it became clear that one would not be forthcoming anytime soon. Furthermore, questioning an industry indicator like ASP is fine, I guess, but it doesn't take into account the negative investor reaction to the data.
Judging by QCOM's sentiment backdrop, the stock was due to blow off some steam anyway. Expectations were high heading into the supposed AAPL announcement, and we still haven't seen a real abatement of this excessive optimism. For instance, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.63 indicates that calls easily outnumber puts among near-term options. This ratio also arrives lower than 85% of all those taken in the past year, meaning that options traders have been more bullish toward QCOM only 15% of the time during this time frame.
Additionally, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) reveals that calls bought to open nearly tripled puts purchased during the prior two weeks. This rising call-buying activity in the face of QCOM's recently poor technical performance has bearish implications from a contrarian perspective.
Wall Street analysts also pose a significant problem for the equity. According to Zacks, 27 of the 33 brokerage firms following QCOM rate the shares a "buy" or better. What's more, Thomson Reuters reports that the consensus price target for QCOM sits at $49.77 per share, a premium of 28% to Friday's close. Any downgrades or price-target cuts could exacerbate the stock's current downtrend.
Technically speaking, QCOM rebounded more than 5% last week, but the shares are staring up at several potential hurdles. First, the shares much overcome resistance at their 80-month moving average, which is currently perched at 39.47. The shares had trouble with this trendline in January and February 2009, and it could create a barrier for any advances heading forward. What's more, the round-number 40 level is home to long-term support and resistance for QCOM. If the equity fails to overcome these technical hurdles, we could see bullish investors abandon their positions for greener pastures.
Joseph Hargett (jhargett@sir-inc.com)
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Posted on 3/5/2010 12:53 PM
Publication: "Barron's"
Publication title: "ADP Could Pay Off for Investors "
Publication Date: 3/4/2010
KeyWords: ADP
Brief Summary:
This article takes an upbeat look at Automatic Data Processing (ADP), the payroll processor whose monthly employment reports are widely regarded as a bellwether for the jobs market. The author notes that ADP "seems to be weathering tough times well. It has a robust cash flow, virtually no debt, and a continually rising dividend." Since the company is thriving in the face of a challenging economy, this bullish piece suggests that ADP is well-positioned to rise even higher as the employment picture improves.
Even if unemployment remains stubbornly high, says the author, ADP's diversification efforts should pay off. Despite slipping payrolls, the company can continue to sell "nonpayroll-related services, like human resources, outsourcing, and tax and benefits administration." Plus, the firm's dealer-services segment is already enjoying healthy market-share gains. Overall, asserts this optimistic article, ADP's deft management amid a challenging macro environment should pay dividends for investors.
Contrarian Takeaway:
ADP has shown serious mettle on the charts this week. After six consecutive weekly closes beneath its formerly supportive 10-week and 20-week moving averages, the stock has elbowed its way back atop these intermediate-term trendlines. Going forward, these moving averages could resume their previous role as a double-barreled backstop.
Plus, there's a decent supply of pessimism that could unwind to support additional upside. ADP's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE) put/call volume ratio stands at 2.60, as puts bought to open have more than tripled calls during the past two weeks. This ratio ranks in the 94th annual percentile, indicating that traders have rarely purchased bearish bets over bullish at a faster pace.
Going forward, traders will want to keep an eye on ADP's progress near the $45 level. This region has previously acted as resistance, and could rear its head again to thwart the equity's rebound. However, if the shares can extend their positive momentum and conquer this looming technical threat, ADP will be well-positioned to benefit from a shift to the bullish camp.
Elizabeth Harrow (eharrow@sir-inc.com)
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Posted on 3/4/2010 8:44 AM
Publication: "MarketWatch"
Publication title: "Netflix investors don't seem to mind a little froth"
Publication Date: 3/4/2010
KeyWords: NFLX
Brief Summary:
This recent article on MarketWatch takes a closer look at the growing competition that Netflix (NFLX) faces. The stock reached the $70 mark on Wednesday -- a fresh all-time high that was above many analysts' price targets and up a whopping 40% in just five weeks. "Once the stock topped $70, many analysts faced the choice of either raising their price targets -- and justifying a rather generous multiple to clients -- or downgrading the stock." Analysts at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Susquehanna Financial Group and Kaufman Bros. chose to downgrade.
The valuation is a mixed picture. At its current levels, Netflix is trading at about 27 times projected earnings over the next four quarters. While that may be a bargain compared to Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), which trades at about 50 times earnings, Netflix is at a 48% premium to the S&P 500 (SPX) average of 18%.
Analysts remain doubtful. Marianne Wolk, an analyst with Susquehanna, wrote that her downgrade was primarily a valuation call, after its shares reached her price target. "At the current levels, we believe many of the positive attributes of the Netflix story are now better appreciated by investors," she said.
Furthermore, "I have a sell," said Tony Wible, a Janney Montgomery Scott analyst who downgraded Netflix Feb. 23. "It's really based on that fact that you are going to see intensified competition." In the digital world, Netflix is facing rivals such as Apple's iTunes store, Amazon's own online movie business, new pay TV channels, and Comcast Inc.'s impending acquisition of NBC.
Contrarian Takeaway:
Overall, Wall Street is relatively pessimistic toward the shares, as 14 of the analysts following NFLX rate it a "buy" or better, while 17 analysts give it a "hold" or worse, according to Zacks.
Furthermore, options players are giving the stock the cold shoulder. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio for NFLX sits at 1.67, as put open interest outnumbers call open interest among options slated to expire in less than three months. Furthermore, the ratio falls in the 91st percentile, indicating that traders have been more bearishly aligned toward the shares only 9% of the time during the past year.
The International Securities Exchange (ISE) has also seen an increase in put trading, as 4.5 puts have been purchased to open for every one call purchased to open during the past 10 trading sessions. This ratio of puts to calls is higher than 98.7% of all those taken during the past year, pointing to a growing skepticism.
From a technical perspective, the stock has soared a whopping 22% since the beginning of the year and remains above support at its ascending 10-week and 20-week moving averages. This wealth of pessimism indicates there is still sideline money available that could jump on the stock's bullish bandwagon and power it higher during the near term.
Jocelynn Drake (jdrake@sir-inc.com)
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Posted on 3/3/2010 8:54 AM
Publication: "CNNMoney.com"
Publication title: "Can Wal-Mart beat the tech giants? No"
Publication Date: 2/23/2010
KeyWords: WMT
Brief Summary:
A recent article on CNNMoney.com examined Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s (WMT) recent attempt to jump into the online movie business with its acquisition of Vudu. However, the article contends: "But once again, Wal-Mart may find it's getting into a crowded market too late." And this isn't the first foray into this field. The retailer launched a movie download service with the help of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) three years ago. It was a flop. Before that, "Wal-Mart tried and failed to out-Netflix Netflix in the online DVD rental business."
Elsewhere, Phil Leigh, an analyst with independent research firm Inside Digital Media, argues that Vudu's offerings of downloadable movies may be too limited. "The Vudu acquisition is a realization that TVs and other entertainment appliances need Internet capability. But on the whole, consumers want unlimited access, not just movies. You can already do this with a Mac mini or Windows-based laptop connected to your TV," Leigh said.
Furthermore, the company faces more competition, as the acquisition follows a partnership announced late last year by Best Buy (BBY) and tech firm Sonic Solutions (SNIC). Best Buy will offer on-demand movies on TVs and other devices through Sonic's Roxio CinemaNow service.
The article concludes by quoting Will Richmond, an analyst with VideoNuze, a Web site that focuses broadband vide., Richmond says, "Consumers are still value conscious and convenience conscious. That's what both Netflix and Redbox cater to nicely. Consumers don't care as much about bells and whistles. They care about getting what they want at a reasonable price when they want it."
Contrarian Takeaway:
Overall, options players are extremely skeptical of the shares of the retailing behemoth. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio comes in at 0.96 - a reading that is higher than 84% of all those taken during the past year.
The International Securities Exchange (ISE) has also seen an increase in put trading recently. The ISE 10-day put/call volume ratio comes in at 0.82, which is higher than 82% of all those taken during the past year, pointing to a growing skepticism.
However, Wall Street is thoroughly enamored of the company, as 21 of the 26 analysts following WMT rate it a "buy" or better. This configuration leaves the shares vulnerable to downgrades.
Technically speaking, the shares of WMT are relatively flat on the year. The stock has been trapped in a sideways channel between support at the 52.50 level and resistance at the 55 level since late November. On the other hand, the stock is perched on support at its 20-week moving average. A bounce off this trendline could shake loose some of the bears, creating a fresh wave of buying pressure that could push the stock out of its current trading range.
Jocelynn Drake (jdrake@sir-inc.com)
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Posted on 3/2/2010 11:46 AM
Publication: "BusinessWeek"
Publication title: "Jaguar Starts Making Money for Tata Motors"
Publication Date: 3/1/2010
KeyWords: TTM
Brief Summary:
This BusinessWeek article discusses the ill-timed purchase of British luxury carmaker Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) by Tata Motors Limited (TTM) in 2008. The $2.5 billion deal transpired "just before the subprime meltdown hammered demand for high-priced luxury names like Jaguar," the author notes, calling the purchase a "vanity play" by the Indian auto issue. However, the luxury division is finally starting to make money for Tata, thanks to the firm's cost-cutting efforts, improved product line, and a global economy on the mend.
More specifically, the turnaround was reflected in TTM's quarterly earnings report last week, which revealed that JLR made a profit of 4.17 billion rupees, compared to a loss of 11.8 billion rupees a year prior. Thanks, in part, to the rebound in demand for JLR, Tata's overall sales jumped 47% to $5.65 billion, with the company swinging to a quarterly profit of $141 million, compared to a $565 million loss in the year-ago period. The earnings "were significantly ahead of our estimates," noted Morgan Stanley analyst Binay Singh, opining that Tata is "well placed to benefit from a volume recovery" in the luxury car and Indian commercial vehicle markets.
The column concludes by noting Tata's newest executives: Group CEO Carl-Peter Forster, former head of GM Europe, and JLR CEO Ralf Speth, formerly with BMW. As such, "the new talent should help Tata keep the turnaround going overseas, too," states the author, pointing to the firm's 56% increase in India-based sales last month.
Contrarian Takeaway:
While the aforementioned article notes that many Street dwellers are starting to take notice of TTM, the stock's sentiment backdrop reveals that the Indian car concern's bullish bandwagon is far from crowded. Short interest on the equity jumped by 6.2% during the most recent reporting period, and now accounts for 11.5 million TTM shares. At the security's average trading volume, it would take almost two weeks for all of these bearish bets to unwind.
Furthermore, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.72 ranks in the 74th percentile of its annual range. In other words, short-term options speculators have been more skeptically skewed toward TTM only 26% of the time during the past 52 weeks.
Technically speaking, the shares of TTM have advanced nearly 600% since flirting with the $3 level in mid-March 2009, guided higher by their 10-week and 20-week moving averages. From a contrarian perspective, a continued show of strength both fundamentally and on the charts could spook the lingering skeptics on the Street. An unwinding of pessimism in the options pits or a significant short-covering boost could act as catalysts even higher for the automaker.
Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com)
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Posted on 3/1/2010 10:37 AM
Publication: "Barron’s"
Publication title: "Cavalry May Not Arrive in Time for Oshkosh"
Publication Date: 3/1/2010
KeyWords: OSK
Brief Summary:
This Barron's article contends that cutbacks in defense spending threaten Oshkosh's (OSK) military truck business, which is the center of the company's earnings strength, and that the U.S. economy is still too weak for the contractor's other units to pick up the slack.
While the U.S. Army recently reaffirmed its award of a key $3 billion, five-year contract to supply as many as 23,000 cargo trucks and trailers for use in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other parts of the world, the article argues that the news isn't good enough to sustain a stock price that has gained 448% over the past 12 months. Furthermore, Steve Barger, an analyst for Keybanc Capital Markets, recently downgraded the stock to "hold" from "buy," citing concerns about future earnings in the face of military cutbacks by the Obama administration and the end of the M-ATV program this summer.
Senior analyst Bill Driscoll, of RBM Capital's 1837 Partners, shares some of Barger's worries. He says any further worsening in the current economic environment could push the stock down to the 30 level.
The article closes with the belief that the shares "could lose 20% or more of their value as growth and profits fall in key military markets and other lines of business await a stronger economic recovery."
Contrarian Takeaway:
While this article takes a negative look at the shares, options players remain optimistic. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio comes in at 0.62, as call open interest nearly doubles put open interest among options slated to expire in less than three months. This reading is also lower than 78% of all those taken during the past year, pointing to a growing optimism.
Furthermore, the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) have reported 13 calls purchased to open for every one put purchased to open during the past 10 trading sessions. This ratio of calls to puts is higher than 94% of all those taken during the past year.
Technically speaking, the stock has gained more than 2% since the start of the year. However, the equity is struggling to hold above its 10-week and 20-week moving averages. These trendlines have guided the shares higher since April 2009. A breach of these support levels could send the bulls running for cover, creating a fresh wave of selling pressure.
Jocelynn Drake (jdrake@sir-inc.com)
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