Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Analyst Upgrades: Adobe Systems Incorporated, Electronic Arts Inc., and The Coca-Cola Company

Analysts upwardly revised their ratings on ADBE, EA, and KO

by 6/19/2013 9:18 AM
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Analysts are weighing in today on diversified software firm Adobe Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ:ADBE), video game guru Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:EA), and beverage giant The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes.

  • Up almost 32% on a year-over-year basis to trade at $43.36, ADBE received some bullish attention today, after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings yesterday. FBR lifted its price target to $35 from $30, while JMP Securities and Bernstein followed suit. In addition, BofA-Merrill Lynch upgraded the shares to "buy" from "neutral." However, the sentiment scales among the brokerage bunch remain bearishly tipped. Only eight analysts have deemed Adobe Systems Incorporated worthy of a "buy" or better endorsement, versus nine "holds" and one "strong sell" recommendation. This leaves plenty of room for further upgrades, which could boost the shares higher.

  • EA -- which boasts a 52-week gain of close to 82% and is priced at $23.03 -- saw its price target upped by $1 to $27 at Stifel Nicolaus in pre-market activity. Nevertheless, the equity's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio sits at 1.11, indicating puts bought to open have outnumbered calls during the last 10 weeks. This ratio ranks higher than 86% of similar annual readings, signaling traders have picked up puts over calls at a faster clip just 14% of the time during the past year.

  • Analysts at Credit Suisse initiated coverage of KO with an "outperform" rating and a price target of $48 this morning, which could add to the stock's year-to-date advance of almost 13%. Elsewhere, The Coca-Cola Company -- currently docked at $40.93 -- sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.61, with calls easily outstripping puts among the front three-months' series of options. This ratio is docked in the 22nd percentile of its annual range, meaning short-term options players are more bullishly aligned toward the security than usual right now.

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Analysts are weighing in today on BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY), wireless services provider Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE:S), and mining concern Cliffs Natural Resources Inc (NYSE:CLF). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes.

  • Despite a year-over-year gain of 38% to trade at $14.84, BBRY was downgraded to "underperform" from "market perform," and saw its price target lowered to $10 from $15 at Bernstein today. Meanwhile, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.47 for Research In Motion Ltd, confirming calls bought to open have more than doubled puts during the past 10 weeks. This ratio ranks above all other readings taken in the past year, meaning traders have been snapping up calls over puts at an annual-high pace.

  • On the heels of the latest acquisition drama with DISH Network Corp (NASDAQ:DISH) and Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ:CLWR), S was cut to "neutral" from "outperform" at Macquarie this morning. This downbeat attitude among the brokerage bunch is more of the same for Sprint Nextel Corporation, which has soared more than 132% during the past year to perch at $7.32. The stock currently maintains seven "buy" or better ratings, compared to 10 "holds" and three "strong sell" suggestions.

  • CLF -- which has shed nearly 52% year-to-date to hover at $18.59 -- was lowered to "underperform" from "neutral" at BofA-Merrill Lynch ahead of the opening bell. Despite this technical weakness, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for Cliffs Natural Resources Inc checks in at 0.69, confirming calls outstrip puts among options scheduled to expire within the next three months. In fact, this ratio hovers just 4 percentage points above a yearly nadir, conveying near-term options players have rarely been more call-heavy toward the stock during the last 12 months.

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Buzz Stocks: FedEx Corporation, Yahoo! Inc., Facebook Inc (FB), and Starbucks Corporation

Today's stocks to watch in the news include FDX, YHOO, FB, and SBUX

by 6/19/2013 9:01 AM
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After two solid gains in a row, the major market indexes are taking a breather this morning. In early action, stocks are sticking close to breakeven, as investors play the "will they/won't they taper" game ahead of the Fed's highly anticipated statement. In company news, here are some stocks to watch today:

  • FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) entered the earnings confessional this morning, and came away smelling like roses. Excluding items, the shipping name posted earnings of $679 million, or $2.13 per share, topping analyst estimates of $1.96 per share. The outperformance was due to increased business, as well as reduced costs, attributable to a decrease in jet fuel prices. (CNBC)

  • The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) officially launched the 787-10 Dreamliner today. The first North American carrier to add the jumbo jet to its fleet will be United Air Lines, Inc., a subsidiary of United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL), which will buy 20 of the new planes. Delivery is expected in 2018. (USA Today)

  • Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) continues its mobile app acquisition streak. After mulling over a $30 million to $40 million acquisition of address book designer Xobni earlier this week, the Internet giant is said to be in talks with Qwiki, a startup that produces an app for easily converting pictures, songs, and videos into movies. The deal could be worth as much as $50 million. (AllThingsD)

  • Adobe Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ:ADBE) earned $76.5 million, or 15 cents per share, for its fiscal second quarter. Topping analyst estimates by three pennies, per-share earnings came in at 36 cents, excluding items. Meanwhile, revenue was down 10% to $1.01 billion, which was in line with forecasts. (FOX Business)

  • Vodafone Group Plc (ADR) (NASDAQ:VOD) has raised its bid for Kabel Deutschland to roughly 85 euros per share from its original offer of 80 to 82 euros a share. The upped bid matches that from Liberty Global PLC (NASDAQ:LBTYA), and values the Germany-based cable operator at 7.5 billion euros, or $10.04 billion. (CNBC)

  • Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) will not include video advertisements in its News Feed until fall, as opposed to the original plan to launch in the spring. The videos have not yet been proven as effective forms of advertisement, and so the social network is still trying to convince advertisers to invest in them. (Mashable)

  • Duke Energy Corp's (NYSE:DUK) current chief financial officer Lynn Good is set to replace CEO Jim Rogers, after he retires at the end of the month. Moreover, Good, who has served as CFO since 2009, will also join the company board, and Rogers will remain board chairman until the end of the year. (The Washington Post)

  • In an effort to increase its sales in the U.S. (particularly in the afternoons and evenings), Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) is expanding its food menu to include more sandwiches and salads, among other items. Chief financial officer Troy Alstead announced on Tuesday that, currently, one out of three purchases at U.S. restaurants includes a food item, and that food purchases account for 19% of overall sales. (USA Today)


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Is the VIX Pointing to a Shift in Stock Leadership?

When high-beta stocks outperform their low-beta peers

by 6/19/2013 7:39 AM
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We've all parsed the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) Spring Pop to the extreme, and I'm probably more guilty than anyone. Everyone agrees that it represents an uptick in Fear; the debate is really over whether that's bullish or bearish for the markets. I tend to view VIX as a contra tell, and side with the former. The greater the rush to buy protection, the less likely you'll actually need that protection. It almost becomes self-fulfilling.

But here's an interesting angle I hadn't thought about recently, from The Wall Street Journal:

Conventional wisdom dictates that a rising VIX means investors are getting more fearful.

But Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, says it suggests change may be afoot in stock-market leadership, a bullish sign.

… Over the past two months, investors have favored companies with potential to raise dividends in the future over those that offer the biggest payouts now, Ms. Subramanian notes. High-dividend payers have been a hot commodity in an environment with ultralow bond yields. But concerns about the Federal Reserve trimming its monthly asset-purchase program have sent yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds higher in recent weeks.

Rising rates have played havoc with the prices of bond-like stocks that offer the biggest dividends, and moving forward, Ms. Subramanian says, dividend-growth stocks "may be a better hedge against rising rates."

Also, taking the lead have been stocks most closely tied to economic growth, like technology and industrials, which have been outperforming their more defensive brethren in recent weeks.

In another reversal, stocks that tend to have smallest price moves are falling behind. That trend is clear looking at exchange-traded funds: The PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) has gained just 0.8% over the past two months, well short of the 13% rise in the PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB), which is up 13%.

What goes around comes around. That SPLV rings a bell... Wait a sec, I remember now -- I discussed it back on April 30.

At the time, low-volatility stocks were in a very extended run of outperformance. I posted a chart of the ratio of the PowerShares Low Volatility Portfolio (SPLV) to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) over the prior two years and noted...

Ratios aren't exactly gospel; there's no reason a relationship like this one can't go way above or below the outer levels seen above. But having said that, you can see the outperformance in 2013 is pretty stark, and it's taken the ratio to the upper bounds of the relatively brief timeframe where we can see SPLV.

That, plus common sense says this trend is likely to end soon. If there's one thing all markets tend to do, it's rotate sectors over time. What's Hot today is likely Not tomorrow. And the trend towards low volatility is likely running on fumes.

I was right about the end of low-beta outperformance, but not so right about what exactly that meant. I added this.

The good news? It's theoretically bullish for the general market. You'd normally expect low volatility to outperform in a down market, in that it loses less. But it's outperformed in a strong market, so we've rallied with little help from the higher-beta names. Well, what happens when the baton inevitably gets passed at some point? Let's just say it's hard to imagine a downtrending market where the high-beta names are holding up the best. It's more likely the relatively few and volatile will lead a leg higher with the old and slow moving kind of flat.

So, yes, I still agree with myself. I think it's bullish if high beta does better than low beta. That really hasn't played out at all. The two years of low-beta outperformance saw a very strong market. The two months of high-beta outperformance have seen a very flat market. Go figure.

As to what it all means for volatility, I differ from Ms. Subramanian. Index volatility has two drivers. One is the volatility of the individual components of the index. If their volatility increases, index volatility clearly increases. The other driver is the correlation between the components. As correlation increases, index volatility increases. But sector rotation implies decreased index volatility. The pop in one sector is offset by a drop in another. So, if sector rotation goes full throttle, VIX should actually dip. And perhaps it soon will.

Disclaimer: The views represented on this blog are those of the individual author only, and do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.


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U.S. stocks are in the green this afternoon, as Wall Street anxiously awaits tomorrow's report from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Among the equities in focus are 3D-content development and design company 3D Systems Corporation (NYSE:DDD), medical equipment manufacturer Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ:ISRG), and data storage provider NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ:NTAP).

DDD enjoyed price-target hikes from BB&T Capital and Canaccord Genuity today. The respective $56 and $55 targets represent expected upside of 18.1% and 16% to the stock's current price of $47.41, and come as no surprise, considering DDD has tacked on a brow-raising 133.3% year-over-year, and has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 45.2 percentage points during the past three months. Moreover, according to DDD's International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) 20-day call/put volume ratio of 2.41, speculators have bought to open almost 2.5 calls for every put within the last 20 sessions. Still, short interest accounts for a whopping 27.15% of the stock's available float, meaning stock traders are overwhelmingly pessimistic toward DDD. Therefore, it is possible that call activity is heavy due to short sellers hedging their bearish bets.

Wedbush announced its price target of $580 for ISRG today, which stands as a discount to analysts' consensus target of $602.36. Moreover, the firm gave ISRG an "outperform" rating, coinciding with the 12 out of 15 analysts who endorse the stock as a "buy" or better. It seems as though analysts' expectations are a tad bit high, considering ISRG has advanced a modest 3.5% year-to-date, and currently rests at $508.01. On the other hand, sentiment in ISRG's options pits run on the bearish side. In fact, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.51 ranks higher than 99% of other such readings taken during the past year, meaning put open interest for options with a shelf-life of three months or less is at a near-annual high, outnumbering call open interest by roughly 1.5-to-1. Should ISRG continue to move sideways, potential downgrades/price-target cuts could be in store, pushing the stock south.

NTAP has been on the rise as of late, climbing almost 28% during the past year, and 15.4% within the last three months alone. Moreover, the stock reached a new 52-week high of $39.48 today, and currently stands at $39.36, roughly 2% ahead of yesterday's close. Expecting the northward trend to continue, Pacific Crest raised its price target for NTAP to $48 from $41. What's more, there could be plenty more in store for NetApp. Just 10 out of 26 analysts offer up "buy" or better endorsements, and the average 12-month price target of $41.16 is just a stone's throw from the stock's current perch. Plus, an unwinding of bearish bets in the options pits could also translate into a contrarian boon. The equity's SOIR of 0.78 ranks in the 75th percentile of its annual range, suggesting short-term speculators are more put-skewed than usual.


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