Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog
Stocks quoted in this article:

U.S. stocks are slightly lower this afternoon, as Wall Street takes a breather ahead of the Fed policy statement. Among the equities in focus include insurance issue American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG), credit card issuer Visa Inc (NYSE:V), and commodity concern Arch Coal Inc (NYSE:ACI), which have all commanded the attention of analysts.

  • AIG is up 0.9% at $45.55, after Deutsche Bank hiked its price target to $56 from $52. Despite outperforming the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 12 percentage points during the past three months, American International Group's bullish bandwagon is far from crowded. The stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.06 on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits just 2 percentage points from a 52-week peak, suggesting option buyers are establishing bearish bets at a near annual-high clip. Likewise, AIG's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.01 ranks in the 98th percentile of its annual range, implying that near-term options players have rarely been more put-heavy during the past year.

  • Meanwhile, V is down 0.5% at $183.17, after scoring another upbeat analyst note -- this time in the form of a new "overweight" rating at Morgan Stanley. Most analysts are already optimistic when it comes to Visa Inc., which sports 20 "buy" or better ratings, compared to 10 "holds" and not one "sell" suggestion. Plus, the equity's SOIR of 0.99 registers in the 16th percentile of its annual range, suggesting short-term options speculators are also bullishly biased when it comes to V.

  • Finally, ACI has surrendered 3.1% to explore the $4.12 level, after BofA-Merrill Lynch cut its price target by $1 to $4. Despite losing more than 43% in 2013, Arch Coal still has plenty of fans on Wall Street. Option buyers have picked up nearly 10 calls for every put during the past two weeks, as evidenced by ACI's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 9.88 on the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX. Furthermore, this ratio ranks in the 88th percentile of its annual range, hinting at a healthier-than-usual appetite for long calls over puts. Should ACI continue to flounder on the charts, an unwinding of optimism among the options crowd could exacerbate selling pressure on the coal concern.

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Weekly Contrarian: Why the Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Rally Could Have Legs

Outperforming NFLX could benefit from a mass exodus of bears

by 6/19/2013 12:10 PM
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The latest deal with DreamWorks Animation SKG, Inc (NASDAQ:DWA) is just more evidence that Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), and not cable television, is "the future of entertainment," opines this MarketWatch column.

More specifically, DWA is giving NFLX the first run at 300 hours of programming, with exclusive initial video rights to The Croods -- and more -- coming next year, marking the biggest deal in NFLX history. Plus, Netflix has scored the first video rights to new films from The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) and its Pixar division, beginning in 2016. Considering a monthly Netflix subscription costs $7.99, compared to the average monthly cable bill of $70, "Would you rather park the kids in front of Nickelodeon, or just hand over your Netflix login information?" the author asks. If NFLX's price action this week is any indication -- the stock is up 9.7% -- Wall Street is betting on the latter.

As such, NFLX and its rivals "are hitting big cable where it hurts: with the younger audience." And, while the company's chief content officer admits that "the goal is to become HBO faster than HBO can become us," the columnist points out that HBO doesn't even seem to be trying.

Contrarian Perspective

NFLX has been on fire on the charts, even before this week, outperforming the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by nearly 19 percentage points during the past three months. Nevertheless, the stock remains surrounded by skeptics -- which could translate into contrarian upside.

On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.04 ranks in the 87th percentile of its annual range. In other words, option buyers have initiated bearish bets over bullish at a much faster clip than usual during the past couple of weeks. In similar fashion, the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.15 sits in the 77th annual percentile, suggesting near-term options bettors are more put-skewed than usual.

Elsewhere, short interest still accounts for a healthy 17.3% of NFLX's total available float. Meanwhile, just six out of 26 analysts consider the stock a "buy" or better.

Should NFLX keep flexing its muscle both on and off the charts, a mass exodus of option bears, a short-squeeze situation, or a flood of upbeat analyst attention could help propel the shares even higher.


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Midday Market Stats: Dow Jones Industrial Average Little Changed Ahead of Fed Update

LZB declines on a poorly received earnings report

by 6/19/2013 11:52 AM
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) is off 12 points, or 0.1%, to 15,306.44, as investors wait with bated breath for the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) latest policy statement, due at 2:00 p.m. ET. Following this much-discussed update, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold his usual press conference. Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the number of mortgage applications filed last week dropped by 4% from the week prior, which was attributed to a recent rise in interest rates.

Here are a few noteworthy stats at midday:

  1. The equity put/call volume ratio across all 11 options exchanges rests at 0.81, with 3.3 million calls changing hands so far today, compared to 2.7 million puts.

  2. Among the equities with heavy call activity is Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:VNDA), despite falling about 22.2% since the opening bell. The drop comes on the heels of an article published on TheStreet.com, which questioned a study of the firm's tasimelteon drug being used for the treatment of a sleep disorder that primarily affects blind people. Currently, calls account for 86.8% of the security's intraday option volume. At last check, VNDA was trading at $8.50.

  3. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) shows an advance/decline ratio of 0.54, with the number of downward movers almost doubling the advancers.

  4. Among the NYSE's major decliners is La-Z-Boy Incorporated (NYSE:LZB), which has shed about 5.1% in intraday action, after reporting a 6.6% drop in fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday. LZB is presently trading at $19.25.

  5. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is 0.3 point, or 1.6%, lower, to hover at 16.35.

  6. The put/call volume ratio on the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSEARCA:VXX) -- which is currently docked at 19.85 -- checks in at 2.78, with puts almost tripling calls.

View a real-time chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2 Minute (INDEXDJX:.DJI).

Unusual Option Volume at Midday


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Analyst Upgrades: Adobe Systems Incorporated, Electronic Arts Inc., and The Coca-Cola Company

Analysts upwardly revised their ratings on ADBE, EA, and KO

by 6/19/2013 9:18 AM
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Analysts are weighing in today on diversified software firm Adobe Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ:ADBE), video game guru Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:EA), and beverage giant The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes.

  • Up almost 32% on a year-over-year basis to trade at $43.36, ADBE received some bullish attention today, after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings yesterday. FBR lifted its price target to $35 from $30, while JMP Securities and Bernstein followed suit. In addition, BofA-Merrill Lynch upgraded the shares to "buy" from "neutral." However, the sentiment scales among the brokerage bunch remain bearishly tipped. Only eight analysts have deemed Adobe Systems Incorporated worthy of a "buy" or better endorsement, versus nine "holds" and one "strong sell" recommendation. This leaves plenty of room for further upgrades, which could boost the shares higher.

  • EA -- which boasts a 52-week gain of close to 82% and is priced at $23.03 -- saw its price target upped by $1 to $27 at Stifel Nicolaus in pre-market activity. Nevertheless, the equity's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio sits at 1.11, indicating puts bought to open have outnumbered calls during the last 10 weeks. This ratio ranks higher than 86% of similar annual readings, signaling traders have picked up puts over calls at a faster clip just 14% of the time during the past year.

  • Analysts at Credit Suisse initiated coverage of KO with an "outperform" rating and a price target of $48 this morning, which could add to the stock's year-to-date advance of almost 13%. Elsewhere, The Coca-Cola Company -- currently docked at $40.93 -- sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.61, with calls easily outstripping puts among the front three-months' series of options. This ratio is docked in the 22nd percentile of its annual range, meaning short-term options players are more bullishly aligned toward the security than usual right now.

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Stocks quoted in this article:

Analysts are weighing in today on BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY), wireless services provider Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE:S), and mining concern Cliffs Natural Resources Inc (NYSE:CLF). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes.

  • Despite a year-over-year gain of 38% to trade at $14.84, BBRY was downgraded to "underperform" from "market perform," and saw its price target lowered to $10 from $15 at Bernstein today. Meanwhile, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.47 for Research In Motion Ltd, confirming calls bought to open have more than doubled puts during the past 10 weeks. This ratio ranks above all other readings taken in the past year, meaning traders have been snapping up calls over puts at an annual-high pace.

  • On the heels of the latest acquisition drama with DISH Network Corp (NASDAQ:DISH) and Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ:CLWR), S was cut to "neutral" from "outperform" at Macquarie this morning. This downbeat attitude among the brokerage bunch is more of the same for Sprint Nextel Corporation, which has soared more than 132% during the past year to perch at $7.32. The stock currently maintains seven "buy" or better ratings, compared to 10 "holds" and three "strong sell" suggestions.

  • CLF -- which has shed nearly 52% year-to-date to hover at $18.59 -- was lowered to "underperform" from "neutral" at BofA-Merrill Lynch ahead of the opening bell. Despite this technical weakness, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for Cliffs Natural Resources Inc checks in at 0.69, confirming calls outstrip puts among options scheduled to expire within the next three months. In fact, this ratio hovers just 4 percentage points above a yearly nadir, conveying near-term options players have rarely been more call-heavy toward the stock during the last 12 months.

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