Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Lessons Learned as Facebook Inc (FB) Turns One

Why the FB volatility picture is exciting to no one

by 5/20/2013 7:34 AM
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Happy Zuck-iversary! One year ago, Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) opened up for trading. Unless you live in a cave that doesn't get CNBC, you probably know that getting in on day one did not turn into the best investment idea of all time. (Click the chart below to enlarge.)

Daily Chart of Facebook (FB) Since May 2012
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

FB "bottomed" near $27 a couple weeks into trading and did trade lower for a while, but it stabilized at the end of the year and hasn't budged much since. It's not unusual for a hot new stock to see volatility trend down over time, it just usually takes way longer than half a year to start looking like Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) do now.

Speaking of volatility:

Facebook (FB) Historical and Implied Volatility Measures
Chart courtesy of IVolatility

Even if the stock itself didn't explode, it seemed highly likely FB options would become The Next Big Thing. It really never happened. The stock became readily borrowable very early on, and extreme bouts of volatility have rarely showed up. As you can see on the chart above, 30-day implied volatility opened at 60 and has drifted all the way to 30 in a year. And that's very much in line with the realized volatility of Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) stock.

Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), it is not.

Options volume hasn't really taken off either. Here's the open-interest picture:

Facebook (FB) Call and Put Open Interest Levels Since May 2012
Chart courtesy of IVolatility

Open interest peaked around the January earnings report and has trended lower ever since. And that kind of makes sense. What's the compelling reason to trade options on a kind of boring, range-bound stock? There is none. $27 names with 30 volatility tend to excite exactly no one.

It's likely the stock, and of course the options, came to market a bit too late as far as trading is concerned. Facebook traded for so long and so actively on Second Market that it likely worked off the pricing bubble and the potential short squeezes, et al., before it actually listed. It's almost like we fast-forwarded to a two-or-three year-old name on day one.

This is all food for thought ahead of other potential high-profile IPOs. Keep expectations for volatility in check.

Disclaimer: The views represented on this blog are those of the individual author only, and do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.


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The major market indexes are exploring new highs this afternoon, thanks to a dose of upbeat economic data. Among the equities in focus include telecom titan AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T), oil and gas concern Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK), and networking equipment provider Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:BRCD), which have all attracted the attention of analysts.

  • Barclays offered its two cents on T, launching coverage with a lukewarm "equal weight" rating. The shares of AT&T are sitting out today's rally, down 0.2% at $37.30 to test support at their 10-week moving average. From a longer-term standpoint, the security has shed about 0.5% in May, yet options traders remain optimistic. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.26 sits just 2 percentage points from a 52-week peak. In other words, option buyers have scooped up T calls over puts at a near annual-high clip during the past two weeks.

  • CHK is up 1.3% at $20.14, after Global Hunter Securities hiked its price target to $27 from $25 -- the stock's second such note this week. There's still plenty of room on the bullish bandwagon, though. Short interest accounts for nearly 11% of Chesapeake Energy's total float, representing more than seven sessions' worth of pent-up buying demand, at CHK's average pace of trading. However, until CHK can muscle past congestion in the $21-$22 region -- which has served as a ceiling since April 2012 -- the bears on Wall Street could stay put.

  • Finally, BRCD is 3.9% lower at $5.51, as investors pan the firm's lackluster earnings guidance and a subsequent downgrade to "neutral" at Baird. Even before last night's unimpressive forecast, BRCD was no stranger to skepticism. Just three out of 19 analysts consider Brocade a "buy" or better, and the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.27 ranks in the 75th percentile of its annual range. In other words, near-term options players are more put-heavy than usual right now.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) is up 64 points, or 0.4%, to 15,296.89, thanks to a pair of upbeat economic reports. Specifically, the Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose by a larger-than-expected 0.6% to 95.0 last month, marking its highest level since mid-2008. Meanwhile, the preliminary May reading of Thomson-Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index arrived at 83.7, up from April's final reading of 76.4. The latest figure exceeded economists' projections, and notched the index's loftiest reading since July 2007. Not surprisingly, the blue-chip barometer claimed a third consecutive record intraday peak of 15,305.44 earlier in the session.

Here are a few noteworthy stats at midday:

  1. The equity put/call volume ratio across all 11 options exchanges sits at 0.83, with 4.3 million calls exchanged so far today, compared to 3.6 million puts.

  2. Among the equities with heavy call activity is Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN), which has added about 2.3% since the opening bell. The biotech firm on Thursday launched its BaseSpace app, which offers a storage platform and genomics cloud computing features. Currently, calls make up 83.6% of the security's intraday option volume. At last check, ILMN was trading at $71.27.

  3. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) shows an advance/decline ratio of 2.34, with the number of upward movers more than doubling the decliners.

  4. Among the NYSE's major advancers is General Motors Company (NYSE:GM), which has gained around 3.4% -- and touched a new multi-year high of $33.58 -- in intraday action, after analysts at CLSA upgraded the auto giant to "buy" from "underperform" ahead of the open. GM is presently trading at $33.48.

  5. Optimism dipped during the week ended May 15, according to the latest survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). The percentage of investors with a bullish view on stocks dropped to 38.5% from 40.8%, while the percentage bearish rose to 29.3% from 27.4%. Meanwhile, the percentage neutral edged up to 32.2% from 31.8%.

  6. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) is 0.6 point, or 4.4%, lower, to linger in the 12.49 neighborhood.

  7. The put/call volume ratio on the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSEARCA:VXX) -- which is currently hovering at 18.28 -- checks in at 0.95, with calls slightly outpacing puts.

View a real-time chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2 Minute (INDEXDJX:.DJI).

Unusual Option Volume at Midday


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Analyst Downgrades: Applied Materials, Inc., Aruba Networks, Inc., and The Walt Disney Company

Analysts downwardly revised their ratings on AMAT, ARUN, and DIS

by 5/17/2013 9:24 AM
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Analysts are weighing in today on tech concerns Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) and Aruba Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARUN), as well as entertainment giant The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes.

  • AMAT -- which sports a 52-week gain of 40% -- was downgraded to "neutral" from "buy" at D.A. Davidson today, on the heels of yesterday's quarterly earnings report. (Meanwhile, Susquehanna and Piper Jaffray raised their price targets for the equity.) However, Applied Materials, Inc. is no stranger to negative sentiment from the brokerage bunch. Only four analysts have deemed the stock worthy of a "buy" or better endorsement, compared to seven "holds" and two "sell" or worse recommendations. Even more telling, the equity's average 12-month price target of $14.72 reflects expected upside of just 0.4% to Thursday's closing price of $14.66.

  • Down about 15% year-to-date to trade at $17.61, ARUN was hammered with negative attention this morning, after reporting weaker-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings on Thursday. J.P. Morgan Securities cut the stock to "underweight" from "neutral," while brokerage firms including Wedbush Securities, Wells Fargo, and UBS also issued downgrades and/or price-target reductions. This skepticism toward Aruba Networks, Inc. goes beyond the analyst crowd, as short interest currently accounts for a hefty 21% of the equity's available float. In fact, it would take almost 13 days to cover these shorted shares, at the security's average pace of trading.

  • DIS was lowered to "neutral" from "overweight" at Atlantic Equities in pre-market action, which could chip away at the security's 2013 advance of roughly 34%. However, the options crowd is much more optimistic toward The Walt Disney Company, which is presently priced at $66.47. The equity's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio sits at 1.96, indicating calls bought to open have almost doubled puts during the past two weeks. This ratio ranks higher than 65% of similar annual readings, reflecting a stronger-than-usual appetite for calls over puts.

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Analyst Upgrades: Visa Inc, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., and Kohl's Corporation

Analysts upwardly revised their ratings on V, WMT, and KSS

by 5/17/2013 9:14 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Analysts are weighing in today on credit card name Visa Inc (NYSE:V), along with retailers Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) and Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes.

  • V -- which has advanced more than 56% during the past year to trade at $179.80 -- saw its price target lifted to $220 from $187 at Nomura ahead of the opening bell. Meanwhile, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.37 for Visa Inc, confirming calls bought to open have more than tripled puts during the past two weeks. This ratio is just 2 percentage points shy of a yearly peak, meaning speculators have been snapping up bullish options over bearish at a near annual-high pace.

  • Up about 15% so far this year to hover at $78.50, WMT scored a price-target hike to $80 from $76 at Bernstein in pre-market activity, despite reporting weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings results yesterday. However, there is still plenty of bearish speculation surrounding Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., as short interest on the stock climbed by more than 6% during the past two reporting periods. These pessimistic bets now account for almost four days' worth of pent-up buying pressure, at the security's average daily trading volume.

  • KSS also received some earnings-induced attention this morning, as analysts at Barclays upped their price target for the stock to $57 from $52. Kohl's Corporation -- which has gained 21% year-to-date -- revealed first-quarter results that topped consensus bottom-line estimates on Thursday. However, despite today's vote of confidence, the sentiment scales among the brokerage bunch remain bearishly tipped. The stock maintains seven "strong buy" endorsements, compared to seven "holds" and three "strong sell" suggestions. What's more, the equity's average 12-month price target of $49.85 reflects a discount to yesterday's closing price of $52.03.

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