FB "bottomed" near $27 a couple weeks into trading and did trade lower for a while, but it stabilized at the end of the year and hasn't budged much since. It's not unusual for a hot new stock to see volatility trend down over time, it just usually takes way longer than half a year to start looking like Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) do now.
Speaking of volatility:
Chart courtesy of IVolatility
Even if the stock itself didn't explode, it seemed highly likely FB options would become The Next Big Thing. It really never happened. The stock became readily borrowable very early on, and extreme bouts of volatility have rarely showed up. As you can see on the chart above, 30-day implied volatility opened at 60 and has drifted all the way to 30 in a year. And that's very much in line with the realized volatility of Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) stock.
Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), it is not.
Options volume hasn't really taken off either. Here's the open-interest picture:
Chart courtesy of IVolatility
Open interest peaked around the January earnings report and has trended lower ever since. And that kind of makes sense. What's the compelling reason to trade options on a kind of boring, range-bound stock? There is none. $27 names with 30 volatility tend to excite exactly no one.
It's likely the stock, and of course the options, came to market a bit too late as far as trading is concerned. Facebook traded for so long and so actively on Second Market that it likely worked off the pricing bubble and the potential short squeezes, et al., before it actually listed. It's almost like we fast-forwarded to a two-or-three year-old name on day one.
This is all food for thought ahead of other potential high-profile IPOs. Keep expectations for volatility in check.
Disclaimer: The views represented on this blog are those of the individual author only, and do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.