Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) is up 64 points, or 0.4%, to 15,296.89, thanks to a pair of upbeat economic reports. Specifically, the Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose by a larger-than-expected 0.6% to 95.0 last month, marking its highest level since mid-2008. Meanwhile, the preliminary May reading of Thomson-Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index arrived at 83.7, up from April's final reading of 76.4. The latest figure exceeded economists' projections, and notched the index's loftiest reading since July 2007. Not surprisingly, the blue-chip barometer claimed a third consecutive record intraday peak of 15,305.44 earlier in the session.

Here are a few noteworthy stats at midday:

  1. The equity put/call volume ratio across all 11 options exchanges sits at 0.83, with 4.3 million calls exchanged so far today, compared to 3.6 million puts.

  2. Among the equities with heavy call activity is Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN), which has added about 2.3% since the opening bell. The biotech firm on Thursday launched its BaseSpace app, which offers a storage platform and genomics cloud computing features. Currently, calls make up 83.6% of the security's intraday option volume. At last check, ILMN was trading at $71.27.

  3. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) shows an advance/decline ratio of 2.34, with the number of upward movers more than doubling the decliners.

  4. Among the NYSE's major advancers is General Motors Company (NYSE:GM), which has gained around 3.4% -- and touched a new multi-year high of $33.58 -- in intraday action, after analysts at CLSA upgraded the auto giant to "buy" from "underperform" ahead of the open. GM is presently trading at $33.48.

  5. Optimism dipped during the week ended May 15, according to the latest survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). The percentage of investors with a bullish view on stocks dropped to 38.5% from 40.8%, while the percentage bearish rose to 29.3% from 27.4%. Meanwhile, the percentage neutral edged up to 32.2% from 31.8%.

  6. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) is 0.6 point, or 4.4%, lower, to linger in the 12.49 neighborhood.

  7. The put/call volume ratio on the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSEARCA:VXX) -- which is currently hovering at 18.28 -- checks in at 0.95, with calls slightly outpacing puts.

View a real-time chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2 Minute (INDEXDJX:.DJI).

Unusual Option Volume at Midday


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Analyst Downgrades: Applied Materials, Inc., Aruba Networks, Inc., and The Walt Disney Company

Analysts downwardly revised their ratings on AMAT, ARUN, and DIS

by 5/17/2013 9:24 AM
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Analysts are weighing in today on tech concerns Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) and Aruba Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARUN), as well as entertainment giant The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes.

  • AMAT -- which sports a 52-week gain of 40% -- was downgraded to "neutral" from "buy" at D.A. Davidson today, on the heels of yesterday's quarterly earnings report. (Meanwhile, Susquehanna and Piper Jaffray raised their price targets for the equity.) However, Applied Materials, Inc. is no stranger to negative sentiment from the brokerage bunch. Only four analysts have deemed the stock worthy of a "buy" or better endorsement, compared to seven "holds" and two "sell" or worse recommendations. Even more telling, the equity's average 12-month price target of $14.72 reflects expected upside of just 0.4% to Thursday's closing price of $14.66.

  • Down about 15% year-to-date to trade at $17.61, ARUN was hammered with negative attention this morning, after reporting weaker-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings on Thursday. J.P. Morgan Securities cut the stock to "underweight" from "neutral," while brokerage firms including Wedbush Securities, Wells Fargo, and UBS also issued downgrades and/or price-target reductions. This skepticism toward Aruba Networks, Inc. goes beyond the analyst crowd, as short interest currently accounts for a hefty 21% of the equity's available float. In fact, it would take almost 13 days to cover these shorted shares, at the security's average pace of trading.

  • DIS was lowered to "neutral" from "overweight" at Atlantic Equities in pre-market action, which could chip away at the security's 2013 advance of roughly 34%. However, the options crowd is much more optimistic toward The Walt Disney Company, which is presently priced at $66.47. The equity's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio sits at 1.96, indicating calls bought to open have almost doubled puts during the past two weeks. This ratio ranks higher than 65% of similar annual readings, reflecting a stronger-than-usual appetite for calls over puts.

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Analyst Upgrades: Visa Inc, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., and Kohl's Corporation

Analysts upwardly revised their ratings on V, WMT, and KSS

by 5/17/2013 9:14 AM
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Analysts are weighing in today on credit card name Visa Inc (NYSE:V), along with retailers Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) and Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes.

  • V -- which has advanced more than 56% during the past year to trade at $179.80 -- saw its price target lifted to $220 from $187 at Nomura ahead of the opening bell. Meanwhile, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.37 for Visa Inc, confirming calls bought to open have more than tripled puts during the past two weeks. This ratio is just 2 percentage points shy of a yearly peak, meaning speculators have been snapping up bullish options over bearish at a near annual-high pace.

  • Up about 15% so far this year to hover at $78.50, WMT scored a price-target hike to $80 from $76 at Bernstein in pre-market activity, despite reporting weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings results yesterday. However, there is still plenty of bearish speculation surrounding Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., as short interest on the stock climbed by more than 6% during the past two reporting periods. These pessimistic bets now account for almost four days' worth of pent-up buying pressure, at the security's average daily trading volume.

  • KSS also received some earnings-induced attention this morning, as analysts at Barclays upped their price target for the stock to $57 from $52. Kohl's Corporation -- which has gained 21% year-to-date -- revealed first-quarter results that topped consensus bottom-line estimates on Thursday. However, despite today's vote of confidence, the sentiment scales among the brokerage bunch remain bearishly tipped. The stock maintains seven "strong buy" endorsements, compared to seven "holds" and three "strong sell" suggestions. What's more, the equity's average 12-month price target of $49.85 reflects a discount to yesterday's closing price of $52.03.

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Buzz Stocks: Applied Materials, Dell Inc., Yahoo! Inc., and Facebook Inc (FB)

Today's stocks to watch in the news include AMAT, DELL, YHOO, and FB

by 5/17/2013 9:13 AM
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The Dow is on pace to reverse yesterday's losses and complete a fourth consecutive week in the black. Ahead of the opening bell, futures are pointed notably higher. In stock news, here are some companies to watch today:

  • Despite a weak fiscal second quarter, Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) came in ahead of both earnings per share and revenue estimates. The semiconductor unit reported quarterly revenues of $1.97 billion, edging out analysts' expectation of roughly $1.9 billion. Likewise, the company notched adjusted earnings per share of 16 cents, versus consensus estimates of 13 cents per share. (NASDAQ)

  • Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL) came clean in the earnings confessional yesterday, and it was not pretty. The computer maker, which is chewing on takeover overtures from both Michael Dell and Carl Icahn, fell short as it disclosed first-quarter earnings per share of 21 cents, excluding items -- well shy of the per-share consensus estimate of 35 cents. However, company revenue for the first quarter was $14.1 billion, topping consensus expectations of $13.5 billion. (The New York Times)

  • To attract more users, Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) is reportedly interested in forming an alliance with, investing in, or outright buying Tumblr, Inc. Earlier this week, Yahoo CFO Ken Goldman announced the company's need to be "cool again" at JP Morgan's Global Technology conference, which would entail finding ways to appeal a younger demographic. (All Things D)

  • Today, Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) celebrates its first birthday as a publicly traded company. Despite the lukewarm reception it initially received, the social network has rebounded, buoying analysts' confidence in the tech IPO market. (USA Today)

  • Charles Schwab Corp (NYSE:SCHW) is temporarily suspending a portion of its account agreement that requires clients to waive their class-action lawsuit rights. Last year, the provision came under fire from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, but was ultimately deemed legal. Nevertheless, the financial services firm has capitulated to public concerns over the policy -- at least, "for the foreseeable future." (FOX Business)

  • Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), with a market value of roughly $12.8 billion, is set to replace Dean Foods Co (NYSE:DF) in the S&P 500 Index (SPX), making it the 286th largest company in the index. Dean Foods will take KSU's spot in the S&P MidCap 400 Index (MID). (Bloomberg)

  • Compuware Corporation (NASDAQ:CPWR) will reportedly issue its first ever quarterly cash dividend payment on June 19. Shareholders of record at the close on June 5 will receive $0.125 per common share. (NASDAQ)

  • Iconic soccer player David Beckham announced that he will be retiring after his final two games with Paris Saint-Germain. Through his 21-year career, the 38-year-old has earned countless club honors, but will leave the sport without ever winning the World Cup. (ABC News)

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The Bigger VIX-ture

Gauging the VIX from a short- and long-term perspective

by 5/17/2013 7:31 AM
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We get some questions on Twitter, sometimes even related to the CBOE Market Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX).

"...Seems most of your post [sic] on the VIX stuff is negative biased expecting lower moves. When it jumps you do the same?"

It's a fair point. I imagine I come off as bearish on volatility with a tendency to read every sporadic sign of VIX strength as unsustainable and ultimately bullish for the market.

My guess is that most of us with an options background view volatility in a similar light. That is, it tends to mean-revert. But I don't want to put words in people's mouths, so let me just speak for myself.

I view VIX in two time frame -- a very long-term macro sort of picture and a very short-term technical picture. The longer term is somewhat figurative. As I've mentioned before, the VIX tends to move within "up" and "down" regimes that last something like four to six years each. It is very inexact, but in my opinion, we are something like two-to-three years into a down regime. The last "up" regime started in early 2007 and lasted about four years.

Again, this is all imprecise, bigger-picture stuff.

Shorter term, I look at moving averages, mostly the 10-day simple moving average (SMA). If the VIX moves 20% above its 10-day SMA, I consider that overbought, and conversely I consider 20% below the 10-day oversold. Funny thing about "oversold" though -- it hardly ever happens. And even when it does, it just highlights complacency, and complacency is a lousy market timer. So let's forget about oversold.

As a Mean Reversion-ist (if that's a word), I look at upside deviations as a contrary tell. So if the VIX shoots 20% over the 10-day (or whatever criteria you use -- Bollinger Band violations work fine as a proxy, too) I consider that overdone and likely to reverse. And since the market generally moves in opposition to the VIX, that would get me bullish on the market in the shorter term.

But then I put that into the context of the longer-term picture in the VIX. If the VIX itself resides in an "up" regime, then I don't find much signal in shorter-term VIX getting overbought. It is simply consistent with the underlying market, and is the same principle as reading less into excess call volume in an up stock than I would in a down stock. In a down stock, I'd read the excess call volume bearishly (i.e. everybody's looking for a bottom, which means its probably not happening just yet).

As I mentioned a few paragraphs ago, I believe the VIX remains something like halfway through a "down" regime. Thus I consider these sporadic VIX pops as contrary tells and short-term bullish for the market. VIX isn't exactly flying lately, but it's not dropping despite the fact that the market remains strong.

Look … at some point the longer-term VIX will turn. I doubt I knew that the VIX pop in February 2007 would ultimately signal a sea change. But it's only obvious in hindsight, so until then, I'm going to look for mean reversion when the VIX pops.

Disclaimer: The views represented on this blog are those of the individual author only, and do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.


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