Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Good Morning

by 10/6/2004 8:15 AM
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We start the day with S&P futures trading flat against fair value. Gold ticked high overnight but has settled back towards 420, where it ended yesterday's session. Oil continues to flirt with 51.

The news headlines are dominated by the VP debate, Chiron and oil's push to new highs. Yum Brands appears to have bucked the malaise that infected the area I loosely call the consumer sector and reported better-than-expected earnings. Of course how can you go wrong with pizza and fried chicken? After the close, Genentech is expected to step into the spotlight and report earnings. During the day, Franklin Raines, Fannie Mae's chief executive, will appear before a House subcommittee to say they didn't do it.


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A Rally Into the Close?

by 10/5/2004 4:24 PM
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I guess it depends on how you define rally. The indices did generally rise for the last half hour of trading but as the table shows, this basically brought them back to breakeven. Of the four, the DJIA stands out as the odd man. The other three are consolidating near their highest point since mid-August while the DJIA is still below its apex of early September.

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1134.5 -0.7 points -0.06 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10177.7 -39 points -0.4 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 1955.5 3.1 points 0.16 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 587.3 -1.8 points -0.30 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 13.3 0.16 points 1.2 percent
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AIG - FYI

by 10/5/2004 3:10 PM
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Yesterday morning I noted the news that American International faced a potential civil action regarding alleged violations of federal securities laws. I just finished a commentary on the stock to update my views from July. In a nutshell, I am concerned about the stock. If you are interested, you can click on this link.

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An Hour to Go

by 10/5/2004 3:08 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

We enter the final hour of trading with the major indices all trading to the downside, but none more than half a percent. A news headline just flashed across my screen that oil closed above 51 for the first time ever, but I am sure that isn't a concern. At least that is the notion you would get by listening to the Street...

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Checking in on my list of 35 or so major sector Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) shows that most sectors are really not moving. As the list below hints towards, just five of the ETFs are moving more than one percent. On the upside are gold and energy related concerns. On the downside, biotech is the only ETF really showing much movement. While Chiron is having an impact here, Genentech (which makes up 31 percent of the BBH) is also adding pressure . (Note: The AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) is also included in my list of ETFs because there is no ETF to properly represent the sector - yet.)

Top Five Performing Sector Exchange Traded Funds:
  • Amex Gold Bug Index (HUI) = +2.86 percent
  • iShares GS Natural Resources Fund (IGE) = +1.28 percent
  • iShares DJ Energy (IYE) = +1.03 percent
  • Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) = +0.74 percent
  • Software HOLDRS (SWH) = +0.69 percent
Bottom Five Performing Sector Exchange Traded Funds:
  • Internet HOLDRS (HHH) = -0.59 percent
  • iShares GS Networking Fund (IGN) = -0.36 percent
  • iShares DJ Industrial (IYJ) = -0.57 percent
  • iShares NASDAQ Biotech Fund (IBB) = -1.43 percent
  • Biotech HOLDRS (BBH) = -2.57 percent

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