Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Index Check

by 4/18/2005 2:15 PM
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Buyers appear to have become active again and here is what the overall picture looks like...

For the most part, we see muted gains on the broad market indices though the DJIA is flat as it is pressured by a five percent loss in 3M. Drugs stocks and oil are still lower, but oil stocks have turned higher. Gold stocks trade near their highs for the day as the group struggles to rebound from recent selling pressure.

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One to Watch - PFCB

by 4/18/2005 1:29 PM
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While this recent broad market action hasn't been the most conducive for being long stocks...I did just happen across a stock that has some intriguing prospects - PF Changs China Bistro (PFCB)...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

This weekly chart shows an interesting picture. The shares moved steadily higher in the last half of 2004 and punched through a resistance zone just below 54. This former resistance then served as support earlier this year as the shares moved in a sideways consolidation. A few weeks ago, the shares overtook the top of this range and are now sitting on this zone.

The data below shows that Wall Street is on the sidelines while short selling activity represents potential buying pressure. The put/call ratio would seem to indicate optimism but open interest is relatively light so I would not put too much weight on that.

  • Percent of analysts tracked by Zacks who rate the stock with a "buy": 41%
  • Number of analysts tracked by Zacks: 17
  • Short interest as a percent of float: 15.5%
  • Short interest ratio: 11.231
  • Put/call ratio percent rank: 23.0%


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Once again...my alert for NYSE net ticks has begun a flurry of "dings", but unlike what we saw earlier, this buying has boosted the market....


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

As you can see, the SPX has moved almost vertically in the last 25 minutes to hit a new high for the session. The former support near 1160 is what I see as the next major resistance zone but I would not expect that to hit today...

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Year-to-Date Returns

by 4/18/2005 12:51 PM
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Given the moves of the last week, I thought it would be a good idea to check in on the top and bottom performing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) for this year...This chart is based on the returns from December 31 through the most recent price today...

Energy, oil and natural resource related groups are still holding gains even though many of these stocks have pulled back. What stands out to me, however, is how the bottom performing list is so focused on tech related stocks.

Last week I noted the complacency on IBM, and not too long ago we discussed how the Street was swooning over Microsoft (which, according to Zacks, 21 of the 23 analysts rank as a "buy" rating)...and don't even get me started back on Yahoo or Dell....

In other words, many of the big-cap tech stocks have been crammed down the throats of investors as the "must own stocks", yet the performance this year isn't exactly inspiring....

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Below are a couple of thoughts from readers that I thought you might find interesting...

Dave says - "The low on the SOX is around 200, were the semis to lock into a range 200 might be the low end. The semis may be in the worst of all worlds, vulnerable to a slowdown in consumer spending, and deflationary pressures. Best Buy had trouble last week because big screen TV prices are dropping. And the military buildup in Asia will take capacity away from consumer products. "

Sharlee says - "I would not get too excited about net Ticks until the S&P gets up above 1156.We scared them to death last week ( VXO up 70% ! )and there could very well be one more little down draft before a solid correction comes through."

My response - Interesting perspectives - thank you for sharing them!

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