Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

At the Open

by 3/30/2005 9:45 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The opening bell rung and stocks are bouncing...

Oil is lower...Bonds are flat...The rest of the list is higher. Internet stocks are leading the way as they try to recoup the gains they failed to hold yesterday.

It is hard to read too much into this bounce given the hard sell-off we saw yesterday and the pattern of weak finishes for past few sessions. In other words, the key to watch today is how well the indices hold these gains as the day progresses...

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News

by 3/30/2005 9:27 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

There are a few stock specific stories out there...but I don't see anything too exciting. I am growing immune to the continuing saga at AIG and the rest of the stories don't seem to be market movers.

I did notice that Travelzoo (TZOO) is indicated up 10 percent. I looked into it and it appears the strength is driven by an upgrade. The shares have been cut in half this year so I wouldn't call them a recent leader but they do have a high short position so it might be something to watch.


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Slight Weakening

by 3/30/2005 9:16 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

For what it is worth...S&P futures have backed off their highest levels and are now two points above fair value as we head into the open...


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Investors Intelligence

by 3/30/2005 9:08 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The weekly figures from Investors Intelligence are out and continue to show a slight drift towards skepticism...

The percent bullish ticked down to 51.6 (from 53.6) while the percent bearish ticked up to 28.0 (from 27.8)...

If you missed it, last week, I asked our II authority about the uptick in bearishness:

    I asked our in-house data expert, Bob Becks, for some perspective and he offered that the "bears are at their highest level since 8/25/04 when they were at 30.2%" but noted that the bulls were at 39.6% then, compared to 53.6 now. In other words, there has been a small move higher in bearishness but we have not seen widespread capitulation by the bulls...


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GDP

by 3/30/2005 8:41 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The fourth-quarter gross domestic product data is out...According to the Wall Street Journal, concensus called for an upward revision to four percent from the preliminary estimate of 3.8 percent but the Commerce Department left fourth-quarter GDP at 3.8 percent.


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

Stocks futures showed a small blip on the data but, for the most part, shrugged it off. The S&Ps still sit three and a half points above fair value. You can also see that the action seems somewhat light this morning so I am curious to see how much of this strength translates into the open...

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