Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

More on Oil

by 4/15/2005 9:21 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:
As Joe mentioned, oil is down over $2 right now. The very interesting part is as far as I can see, there isn't any news out there that says exactly why. Whatever the reason is for the drop, look for more weakness from the transports – especially the oil sensitive shipping and railroad stocks. On the other hand, look for strength coming from airlines, as lower oil helps them considerably with their costs.

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Déjà vu?

by 4/15/2005 9:05 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:
After Thursday's drubbing on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), S&P 500 Index futures are relatively flat. This was pretty much the same opening remarks to Thursday's session. June 30-Year Treasury Bond futures are higher by +22/32. Spot oil prices are down over two points. Today is expiration Friday, which usually creates some media buzz for the potential for added volatility. It would not be surprising though to see a quieter session given that the volatility over this past week has been definitely more than usual.

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Final Figures

by 4/14/2005 4:53 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Once again we see...

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1161.7 -12.1 points -1.03 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10274.2 -130 points -1.2 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 1946.9 -27.5 points -1.39 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 592.1 -10.4 points -1.73 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 14.29 1.30 points 10.0 percent

...losses of one percent or more for the major indices. And an overall picture that shows...

..very few bright spots on the day. Drugs and oil held their gains while most groups suffered at least moderate losses.

After the close I noted that IBM appeared to miss earnings estimates by a nickel and I have yet to see that be revised so it looks like that is what the Street is going with. The back-to-back one percent losses on the major indices combined with this disappointing news from Big Blue comes at a critical time as the major indices are precariously perched on support.

This afternoon I showed the chart of the SPX versus the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) and this has the potential to be violated tomorrow. Which is supremely frustrating as I won't be in the office - make sure you keep an eye on this.

The good news for you though, is that you will get a change of pace from my monotonous ramblings as some friends will be making an appearance here to fill in. Be nice to them, otherwise they won't let me take off again! "See" you all Monday....


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IBM

by 4/14/2005 4:21 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Speaking of IBM....the company just reported earnings and at first glance it looks like they missed estimates by a nickel. However, remember the confusion we saw last earnings season as there was a debate about whether certain charges should be included in estimates so this miss may yet be "talked" away. Shares of IBM halted but futures ticked lower on the release so it appears, so far, that this isn't being well-received.

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At the Close

by 4/14/2005 4:13 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

A poor showing from the bulls...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

...as the SPX ticks below last week's low and closes near its worst levels of the day...


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