Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

At the Open

by 6/16/2005 9:56 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The opening bell has rung and here's what I see...

Once again we see mostly flat action, though semis, internet and biotech are trying to rally. And, once again, we see that gold stocks are on the move. If you missed it last night, you might want to check out this chart of the HIU...

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Into the Open

by 6/16/2005 9:24 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

We head toward the open with S&P futures pulling back to breakeven and gold rallying...The yellow metal is now up 5.20 while oil is nearly flat.


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Readers Respond - Low VXO?

by 6/16/2005 9:23 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

A number of readers sent me emails last night with same basic thought - "Check out the low CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) readings!"

My response - First of all, I want to thank everyone who sent in the emails (and charts!) - it is great to see that we are starting to come together as a community to share our collective knowledge. Secondly, I echo your thoughts that the VXO is low (along with its sister volatility indices) which does offer up a caution flag. As this monthly chart shows, the VXO is back to levels last seen in the mid-1990s...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

However, aside from absolute levels, you can measure the "relative" highs and lows over the short-term by using Bollinger Bands. The daily chart below shows the SPY plotted against the VXO with Bollinger Bands on it...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

In theory, a break below the bottom band shows a relative low. I have shaded the chart with grey areas to show these breaks. I choose this view because it highlights good signals and not-so-good signals, which is important to understand because no indicator is perfect....

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Keeping an Eye on Adobe

by 6/16/2005 8:05 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

A stock to keep an eye on today is Adobe Systems (ADBE)...which reports earnings tonight.

A check of the equity scorecard shows a rather unimpressive reading of four and a check of data from Zacks shows analysts are firmly in the bullish camp with 15 of 22 analysts (68 percent) ranking the stock with a "buy" rating.

For a look into what the bulls like about the stock, check out this article on CNN/Money's website - "Adobe: No Flash in the pan"...


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Good Morning

by 6/16/2005 7:46 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

We follow yesterday's small gains with a small upside bias in stock futures. With just under two hours until the open, the S&Ps are a point and a half above fair value. Gold is up 2.30 to 433.20, which is its highest level in over a month. Oil is up 25 cents to 55.82.


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