Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Good Morning

by 5/4/2005 7:54 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

We follow the Fed blunder with an interesting futures picture. At first glance it may appear that the S&Ps are signaling a slightly negative open as they trade down 1.30. However, the cash market and futures diverged at the end of the day yesterday. The net result of this is that futures would have to trade down more than three points to be at fair value. In other words, even though the S&Ps are trading lower than yesterday's close, they are still two points above fair value which indicates a slightly higher open.

If this seems confusing, I wouldn't spend too much time on the issue as I don't think it is a tremendously important in the grand scheme. After all, whether the SPX opens two points higher or two points lower, it is still a relatively flat open. I just thought you might find it interesting and wanted to mention it as I have seen some contradictory comments this morning on what futures were pointing to...

Outside stocks, I see that gold is up 2.30 to 430 while oil is up a nickel to 49.55...

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Final Figures

by 5/3/2005 5:38 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

As the post below hinted towards...

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1161.2 -1.0 points -0.09 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10256.9 5 points 0.1 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 1933.1 4.4 points 0.23 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 584.5 -1.4 points -0.24 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 14.62 0.18 points 1.2 percent

...a last minute bounce boosted the broad market indices off their lows and left them firmly planted near the unchanged mark.

Overall we see a similar picture to what we have tracked all day - a mixed image on the upper two-thirds of the graph with weakness in the oil patch. Gold stocks popped in the afternoon as that group tries to shake off its recent malaise.

However, I am more curious to see how this afternoon's events will play out in the morning and that is where I will pick up tomorrow...


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Readers Respond - Oooops

by 5/3/2005 5:21 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

I am back from my meeting and immediately saw an email from Chris who says - "Did you catch what just happened? Within the last 5 minutes of trading, CNBC flashes a "News Alert" to say that the Fed mistakenly omitted a sentence from the statement. The Dow was down 40 or so, and popped to finish the day +5. The sentence Al forgot: "Longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained" Pretty big ooops! I won't go so far as to suggest Al maybe threw that one out when he did for a reason. I'm sure it was an honest oversight. "

My response - I am trying to catch up on what happened but it appears the headlines confirm that the Fed did have a small "ooops" in terms of their thoughts on inflation. And as the intraday chart below shows, the SPX did pop just before the close...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

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I Will Be Back

by 5/3/2005 4:00 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

I stepped away from the action to catch my colleague Todd Salamone do battle as the bear on his regular CNBC "bull-bear" debate....And now I need to step away for a quick meeting...I'll recap today's action when I return...

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The Whipsaw Continues

by 5/3/2005 3:18 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The whipsaw action continues as we head into the final 45 minutes of the session...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

The SPX reversed from its session highs and tagged a new intraday low. However, if you scan over today's percentage returns you can see we are still sitting more or less flat...

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1157.6 -4.6 points -0.39 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10220.7 -31 points -0.3 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 1928.6 -0.1 points -0.01 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 582.9 -2.9 points -0.50 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 14.90 0.46 points 3.2 percent

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