Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Year-to-Date Returns

by 4/18/2005 12:51 PM
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Given the moves of the last week, I thought it would be a good idea to check in on the top and bottom performing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) for this year...This chart is based on the returns from December 31 through the most recent price today...

Energy, oil and natural resource related groups are still holding gains even though many of these stocks have pulled back. What stands out to me, however, is how the bottom performing list is so focused on tech related stocks.

Last week I noted the complacency on IBM, and not too long ago we discussed how the Street was swooning over Microsoft (which, according to Zacks, 21 of the 23 analysts rank as a "buy" rating)...and don't even get me started back on Yahoo or Dell....

In other words, many of the big-cap tech stocks have been crammed down the throats of investors as the "must own stocks", yet the performance this year isn't exactly inspiring....

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Below are a couple of thoughts from readers that I thought you might find interesting...

Dave says - "The low on the SOX is around 200, were the semis to lock into a range 200 might be the low end. The semis may be in the worst of all worlds, vulnerable to a slowdown in consumer spending, and deflationary pressures. Best Buy had trouble last week because big screen TV prices are dropping. And the military buildup in Asia will take capacity away from consumer products. "

Sharlee says - "I would not get too excited about net Ticks until the S&P gets up above 1156.We scared them to death last week ( VXO up 70% ! )and there could very well be one more little down draft before a solid correction comes through."

My response - Interesting perspectives - thank you for sharing them!

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Worth Noting?

by 4/18/2005 11:46 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

I have seen a few sporadic spikes in NYSE net ticks but as you can below...

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1141.8 -0.8 points -0.07 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10033.6 -54 points -0.5 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 1911.1 2.9 points 0.15 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 580.4 -0.4 points -0.06 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 17.10 0.45 points 2.7 percent

...this buying has not been able to bounce the indices. Similar to what we have discussed with uptrends, moves lower into oversold can be resolved either with bounces or through consolidations. The oversold readings in March were resolved more through consolidation so this action is worth watching....


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Checking Back on QLGC

by 4/18/2005 11:03 AM
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On Thursday I touched on QLogic (QLGC) as the stock was testing the water below support...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

As you can see, the shares plunged into these waters as the broad market headed lower. It will now be interesting to see if the shares can retake this former support, which should now serve as resistance. A check of Zacks shows no change in analyst opinion as 72 percent of the analysts still rank the stock with a "buy" rating so downgrades are still a major concern...


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As I mentioned below...The semis have pulled back to their January lows...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

This updated chart of the SMH shows the prior upward sloping trendline (which we last looked at here) that was drawn off the January lows....which is where the group sits, again, after the double top near 35. I think this is an important level to watch.


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