Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Still Not Looking Good

by 4/27/2005 9:08 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

No...that title isn't referring to my picture that is shown on the homepage...it is in reference Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) which is a stock I have been checking back on...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

Yesterday's high tested the previous lows as resistance. The shares were firmly rejected and tagged a new annual low. Given the complacency noted in the link above, I would keep a cautious eye on what happens here...

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Not So Durable

by 4/27/2005 8:57 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Durable goods orders came in below expectations and put pressure on stock futures...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

As you can see, the S&Ps were trying to bounce from their earlier lows and this disappointing data put the kibosh on that "rally" and pushed the June contract to a new low for the overnight session. They currently sit three points or so below fair value.

Perhaps the most thought provoking aspect of the report is what I read on the Dow Jones Newswires. In this article it was noted that analysts were explaining that this number was too volatile to be relied on for forecasting the economy.

There is some truth to this and I don't think you can rely on any single piece of data to tell the entire story. However, this does hint to the continuing underlying complacency that we have been seeing. Perhaps it is just me but it seems that investors are habitually urged to quickly dismiss risks and warning signs.


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AMZN?

by 4/27/2005 8:23 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

In my ending comments last night...which were posted after computer problems galore...I said I glanced over Amazon's earnings report and it looked like they beat expectations but were trading lower on outlook concerns. Upon closer inspection, it doesn't look like they beat EPS consensus...Well, then again...

In other words, there was some confusion about some charges and whether those were included in concensus estimates. When I flipped on CNBC this morning they said they were still trying to figure it out...

Given all we have heard about corporate reform and how earnings are so "clean" now, does anyone else find it odd that we can't get a simple earnings report? This is not rocket science...

EPS confusion aside, what we do know is that the shares are trading lower in pre-open action as the market was not thrilled with Amazon's outlook. Which, of course, is not going to help the chart of the Internet HOLDRS (HHH) that we looked at yesterday...

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Good Morning

by 4/27/2005 8:03 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

We follow yesterday's selloff with a touch of weakness. With an hour and a half until the open, S&P futures are trading nearly two points below fair value. Gold is down three points to 436 while oil is up a nickel to 54.25.


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Final Figures

by 4/26/2005 6:05 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Some days it feel like you just can't win...I was already running late on the day and my computer decided to just "eat" the first version of this post and then shut down... Grrrr...

As I was trying to say before I was so rudely interrupted....Monday giveth and Tuesday taketh away...

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1151.7 -10.4 points -0.89 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10151.1 -91 points -0.9 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 1927.4 -23.4 points -1.20 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 587.7 -8.8 points -1.47 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 14.26 0.47 points 3.4 percent

At least when it comes to the SPX. Monday's session saw a gain of 9.98 points and today we see a decline of almost that exact amount. In other words, we continue to see a trend of moderately large moves that net out against each other. While this sort of churn can be interpreted different ways, it is important to keep an eye on the net move.

Perhaps it is just me, but it seems that the "up" days are given more attention and the "down" days are more-or-less glossed over. This can lead to a feeling that the market is moving higher when the reality is not as sunny. Year-to-date the SPX is down five percent so that can help give us a benchmark to watch.

Getting back to today's session...

We see weakness across the board with the RUT showing the one of the largest percent moves while internet stocks and gold stocks were competing for the top spot on the decliners list.

As I touched on earlier, Amazon was due to report earnings after the close. I glanced over their earnings report and it looks like they beat expectations. However, the shares appear to be trading lower in after hours so it looks like the Street didn't like some aspect of the report. And that is where I will pick up tomorrow...


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