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Stocks quoted in this article:

In response to my thinking out loud post, Dave says - "The Dow bounced off support AND the 200ma but has spent three days trying to get back a one day gain (3/29). It will be increasingly difficult for the indexes to move higher on pullbacks in oil, as oil stocks gain a larger share of the weighting. (i would like to see the percent of SP weighting in energy updated weekly and charted against the gains and losses to see if the market is gaining or losing support) its possible they can all go up together which might suggest the reflation play is still on. "

My response - Interesting thoughts - thanks for sharing them. I don't have direct access to the SPX weightings, but you can get a very close approximation by looking at the "Top Sectors/Industries" of the iShares S&P 500 Index Fund (IVV) which is available here.

The IVV is designed to track to the SPX and shows that energy is the seventh largest sector at 8.94 percent - as of 4/4/2005. The top groups above energy (Financials, Information Technology, Health Care, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples) make up just over 81 percent of IVV...

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Stocks quoted in this article:

The weekly oil inventory numbers came out at 10:30 and the market has been gyrating...

Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

The SPX initially moved lower but shortly after that, my alert for NYSE net ticks started to ring as it appears that buyers stepped up. The SPX has made a new high for the session as it continues to march toward last week's highs...

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Thinking Out Loud

by 4/6/2005 10:30 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

I was pondering a few points...The first is that the SPX and DIA are still sitting above the intermediate-term support that marked the January lows. (Charts of these can be found here for SPX and here for DIA.) The second is the creep lower we have seen in Investors Intelligence optimism. The third is that the major indices are pushing in on last week's highs as I showed yesterday.

From a purely short-term basis, it seems that a move above the last week's highs is something to watch closely. This could fuel a pop as the bulls would scream "double bottom" and some of the recent capitulation in Investors Intelligence may reverse itself and draw some money back into stocks.

As I said, this is just thinking out loud and not a prediction. On occasion, I like to try to pull together some of the points I am seeing into possible scenarios - this is one. The indices have not pushed above last week's highs and as noted earlier, the bull II numbers can still fall. However, it does seem likely that a push above resistance could have the potential to excite the bulls.

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One to Watch - AMHC

by 4/6/2005 10:01 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

As I went through the charts of the stocks listed in the scan below, American Healthways (AMHC) caught my eye...

Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

This weekly chart shows both the steady uptrend and the fact that the shares are in the process of trying to break above resistance. As the points below show, the Street is firmly on the sidelines while short interest is heavy. The put/call is relatively low, which is normally a warning sign, but open interest on the stock is so light that I wouldn't give this much weighting.

  • Percent of analysts tracked by Zacks who rate the stock with a "buy": 20%
  • Number of analysts tracked by Zacks: 10
  • Short interest as a percent of float: 19.2%
  • Short interest ratio: 12.40
  • Put/call ratio percent rank: 11.5%

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Stocks quoted in this article:

As usual, this table lists stocks that have at least 10 percent of their float sold short and then shows the top ten based on yesterday's gain. The last field shows how the stock is performing in today's session. This can be a useful tool for finding situations where stocks with heavy short interest have begun to move. All returns are shown in percentages.

Note - more information on short interest can be found by by clicking here.

Company Yesterday's
Percent of Float
Sold Short
Biosite, Inc. (BSTE) 12.1 36.7 58.43 0.80
Northfield Laboratories Inc. (NFLD) 9.3 15.8 11.93 6.55
Napster (NAPS) 9.2 18.9 6.74 -1.04
Cree, Inc. (CREE) 7.6 18.0 22.91 6.18 (ECLG) 6.2 16.9 13.64 0.51
Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc. (JOSB) 6.1 51.1 33.84 1.01
Shanda Interactive Entertainment Limited (SNDA) 5.7 18.6 31.70 0.73
American Healthways, Inc. (AMHC) 5.4 19.2 35.64 0.45
American Italian Pasta Company (PLB) 4.7 44.3 28.78 0.83
JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU) 4.6 19.7 19.44 2.67

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