Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

At the Open

by 4/27/2005 9:48 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The tickers are blinking and here is what I see...

As indicated by futures...and continuing where yesterday left off...we see broad based weakness...though it is mild weakness for the most part. The exceptions would internet stocks, gold stocks, and semis...though cyclicals and natural gas stocks are pushing in on the one percent threshold. The internet index, of course, is getting hit on Amazon's five percent loss...


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Investors Intelligence

by 4/27/2005 9:27 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The weekly figures from Investors Intelligence are out...

The percent bullish dropped to 44 (from 48.4) while the percent bearish moved up to 29.7 (from 26.9)...

You can find the Investors Intelligence chart and recent data here...

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Still Not Looking Good

by 4/27/2005 9:08 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

No...that title isn't referring to my picture that is shown on the homepage...it is in reference Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) which is a stock I have been checking back on...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

Yesterday's high tested the previous lows as resistance. The shares were firmly rejected and tagged a new annual low. Given the complacency noted in the link above, I would keep a cautious eye on what happens here...

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Not So Durable

by 4/27/2005 8:57 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Durable goods orders came in below expectations and put pressure on stock futures...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

As you can see, the S&Ps were trying to bounce from their earlier lows and this disappointing data put the kibosh on that "rally" and pushed the June contract to a new low for the overnight session. They currently sit three points or so below fair value.

Perhaps the most thought provoking aspect of the report is what I read on the Dow Jones Newswires. In this article it was noted that analysts were explaining that this number was too volatile to be relied on for forecasting the economy.

There is some truth to this and I don't think you can rely on any single piece of data to tell the entire story. However, this does hint to the continuing underlying complacency that we have been seeing. Perhaps it is just me but it seems that investors are habitually urged to quickly dismiss risks and warning signs.


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AMZN?

by 4/27/2005 8:23 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

In my ending comments last night...which were posted after computer problems galore...I said I glanced over Amazon's earnings report and it looked like they beat expectations but were trading lower on outlook concerns. Upon closer inspection, it doesn't look like they beat EPS consensus...Well, then again...

In other words, there was some confusion about some charges and whether those were included in concensus estimates. When I flipped on CNBC this morning they said they were still trying to figure it out...

Given all we have heard about corporate reform and how earnings are so "clean" now, does anyone else find it odd that we can't get a simple earnings report? This is not rocket science...

EPS confusion aside, what we do know is that the shares are trading lower in pre-open action as the market was not thrilled with Amazon's outlook. Which, of course, is not going to help the chart of the Internet HOLDRS (HHH) that we looked at yesterday...

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