Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Coming Soon...

by 3/4/2005 10:21 AM
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Before I forget...I hope to have a couple of new weekly posts out later today to help in your weekend analysis. Make sure you either stick around or come back later today to check it out and give me your thoughts...

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Don't Follow the Leader...

by 3/4/2005 10:17 AM
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With the headlines flashing the Dow at new highs...and joy abounding...I think it is more interesting to note what stocks aren't participating....a look across my screen shows that YHOO and GOOG are below breakeven...along with a smattering of biotech and semis...I see EMC at breakeven and MSFT "rallying" nine cents...oil services are weak.

Now some of this makes sense. We have seen a bit of negative correlation between oil/oil services and the broad market. However, some of the others have me keeping a watchful eye....

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Sorry...

by 3/4/2005 10:09 AM
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I have avoided talking about it....but I had to note that MSO is now listed on the CNBC "bug" along with the indices. I discussed the stock earlier so you can follow those links if you are interested. Other than that, I would prefer this to be a refuge from the Martha deluge...

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At the Open

by 3/4/2005 10:04 AM
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Sorry the delay, I was putting together my index graph and was sidetracked by a call from the Financial Times Germany to discuss the coming week....checking on the "big picture" shows....

Nothing too surprising here as we see an upside bias. I would have expected the gains to be a bit stronger at the open but NYSE net ticks have spiked so buyers may be dribbling in here. Outside that...semis are higher but barely so...oil is down slightly...biotech is flat...


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Gary says - "Is anyone really surprised at how the jobs number is being reacted to? Had the number been 100,000 below consensus, stocks would likely be poised for a higher opening just the same. The logic would have been that now the Fed could slow its pace of tightenings. Today's number should incite a bit of fear for the pace of Fed. It seems that we are at one of those moments in time when market participants were going to take the market higher regardless of the actual number. The question is whether there is sufficient momentum to lift the market beyond this morning? today?"

My response - It is hard to say what would have happened under other scenarios. However, in gauging the comments I have seen, it appears that at least part of the jubilant reaction is from the "it is out of the way" perspective.

I do agree that it will be interesting to see how this strength holds. As I talked about in my Pondering a Post links below, I think there is a potential to see a "momentum chase" but that is a different type of rally than what I would call a "bull rally"...It might sound like I am playing with words, but the first tend to be of the fast-furious-flameout variety while that latter is more of the stair-step fashion. You can make money on both, but keeping your discipline is crucial on the first because it is very tough to tell how much fuel is feeding that fire and when it will run out...

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