Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Final Figures

by 4/29/2005 5:03 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

As we have already discussed...

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1156.9 13.6 points 1.19 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10192.5 122 points 1.2 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 1921.7 17.5 points 0.92 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 579.4 4.4 points 0.76 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 15.18 -1.38 points -8.3 percent

...the bulls made a push today to keep the week from being a complete disaster. The RUT and COMP lagged the action but did make up some ground into the close...

Overall, we see a big drop in oil as most indices trade higher. Housing stocks were the largest gainer as the group recouped some of yesterday's large drop. It is somewhat interesting to note that even with all of the buying the seemed to go on today, semis and internets couldn't gain traction.

And while the major indices ended the week on an up note, the tune is still somewhat downbeat as the major indices are still locked in short-term downtrends and remain near the lows for the year. And that is where I will pick up on Monday...

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At the Close

by 4/29/2005 4:18 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The bulls were able to keep a bid under the market...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

...as the SPX closed at its highs.

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Final Hour

by 4/29/2005 3:19 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

We roll into the final hour of trading with the indices trying to rally...

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1152.6 9.4 points 0.82 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10160.6 90 points 0.9 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 1915.1 10.9 points 0.57 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 576.7 1.6 points 0.28 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 15.53 -1.03 points -6.2 percent

As you can see the SPX and DJIA are showing moderate gains but the bulls continue to have trouble gaining traction in the COMP and RUT.

The chatter on the rally focuses on...can you guess it...a decline in oil as crude pushes below 50. As we have discussed, this seems a somewhat dubious "catalyst" (at least to me) as we have seen declines in oil show no help for stocks, but I will leave that discussion for another time.

As I noted earlier, a failure today would make for an uncomfortable weekend so a push by the bulls doesn't seem too unexpected. It will be interesting to see if they can hold this rally into the close...


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Readers Respond - Gold?

by 4/29/2005 2:19 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

A number of readers have asked - "what is going on with gold?"

My response - Obviously I am paraphrasing, but a number of you have asked about the prospects for the yellow metal. For those who aren't aware, we shifted our official posture on gold from "bullish" to "neutral" last week. (The list of our official postures on stocks, gold, and bonds is available at the bottom of the Market Recap column which is updated daily on the homepage.)

I threw the topic out on the trading floor to get some thoughts and the general response was that there are too many mixed signals to get a clear read on what is going on. For example, gold itself remains in an uptrend but gold stocks are showing a concerning breakdown. One colleague also noted that optimism seems to be creeping higher and pointed to an article in the Financial Times that discusses gold going to 500.

As for me, I am still watching the monthly chart of the Amex Gold Bug Index (HUI) that I first noted in October...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

Here you can see that the HUI has broken below that uptrending channel and the 20-month moving average. However, it is still holding above the long-term support zone that contained the pullback last May. Which, overall, just highlights some of the conflicting signals emanating from this sector...


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Two Unrelated Points

by 4/29/2005 1:40 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

As I just mentioned, I have been keeping an eye on the NYSE net ticks as a sign of buying demand...My alert has remained active since my last post as it seems that the bulls have been making a run. The major indices have now moved off their lows but have yet to make new highs on the session. Given the poor action this week, a failure today could make for a "nervous" weekend as investors will be stewing on the new lows for the year.

The second point is that I just saw some comments from Bernie that you might find interesting. In his latest post - "Two Easy Pieces " - he discusses Google (GOOG) which is a stock many of you have asked about. If you haven't read this column, make sure you check it out...


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