Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Feeling Hot...Hot...Not?

by 4/26/2005 10:50 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

A quick scan of the news shows that IBM is a "hot stock" as they increased their dividend and approved a massive stock buyback...This has the shares trading up two percent to 76...which of course is still below where they started 2005 when they traded near 97...

Now, for new readers of this space, I am an unabashed cynic on the stock and you can click here and here for the reason why...

Keeping in my mind my bias as a caveat, doesn't this feel like it is a page ripped straight from "a CEO's guide for what to do when you miss earnings, your stock is plummeting, and you are afraid analysts will begin to downgrade your stock" playbook...

When I last checked on Wall Street's ratings we saw that 61 percent of the analysts tracked by Zacks ranked IBM with a "buy" rating. That has now slipped to 53 percent. Will this be enough to elicit some enthusiasm from the Street and keep the rest of them on board?


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Speaking of Semis

by 4/26/2005 10:23 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

An email from a reader turned my attention to Alter (ALTR) which was upgraded this morning. This enthusiasm caused the shares to gap up and they currently sit five percent higher on the day...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

Which has pushed the shares above their 50-day moving average and into a trendline that marks the descending highs. It will be interesting to see if

  1. The shares can hold this gap
  2. This positive momentum helps to boost the SMH off the lows noted in the post below...


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Chart Chatter - SMH

by 4/26/2005 10:04 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

As promised, here is a chart of the semis...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

Here we see the familiar support and resistance zones that we have been tracking for sometime, as well as the 50-day moving average. Last week we discussed how the group had found support at their January lows but notice how the SMH has not been able really to move higher. In fact, the last three sessions have seen the shares register a lower high.

I wouldn't call this the kiss of death...yet...as I have seen bounces off support get off to a slow start but it might be worthwhile to note the lethargy...


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At the Open

by 4/26/2005 9:52 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The opening bell has rung and here is what I see...

As indicated by pre-open futures activity, there was a negative bias at the open...but losses are fairly mild...oil is the biggest decliner...internet and semis are among the weakest groups along with cyclicals and natural gas....biotech, bonds, and gold are the only groups holding gains.

The chart of the semis just caught my eye. Give me a moment and I will post that...

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Stocks quoted in this article:

I have been keeping an eye on the pre-open futures action...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

As you can see, the S&Ps drifted steadily lower into 6:30 AM where they tried to bounce. This bounce appears have run out of steam as the June Futures turn lower. They currently sit three and a half points below fair value...

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