Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Heading Into the Open

by 3/9/2005 9:06 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

S&P futures are now four points below fair value as we head toward the open...As far as the catalyst for the selling, most point to a drop in bonds...

On the individual stock level, I see that JP Morgan is saying that they think Intel will have good things to say in their mid-quarter update tomorrow night....JP Morgan is also urging investors to buy palmOne...a brokerage firm is lower estimates on Overstock.com...

Gold is now down a point while oil is holding gains - up 26 cents...


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Futures Update

by 3/9/2005 8:18 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Earlier I noted how S&P futures were pulling back from their overnight highs and this has turned into outright selling...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

As you can see, there has been a somewhat dramatic dip and futures are now five points or so below fair value. I don't see much in the way of headline news to account for selling but the "chatter" is all over the board so I will keep digging...

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In the News

by 3/9/2005 8:11 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

A couple of articles in today's USA Today are worth a read...

What caught my eye was how the focus is continuing to shift toward energy and commodities. I haven't chewed through what the contrarian implications might be but I wanted to point this out because it shows how these groups are carrying the market and how commodities prices continue to push higher...

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Good Morning

by 3/9/2005 7:48 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

We start the day with S&P futures pulling back from their overnight highs but still holding above fair value. With a little over an hour and a half until the open, S&Ps are sitting just a over point above fair value. Gold is up 70 cents to 441. Oil is also higher, adding 26 cents to trade at 54.85....

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Final Figures

by 3/8/2005 4:42 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

As I noted below, a late day bout of selling knocked the indices to new session lows...

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1219.4 -5.9 points -0.48 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10912.6 -24 points -0.2 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 2073.6 -16.6 points -0.79 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 638.0 -5.9 points -0.91 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 11.95 0.31 points 2.7 percent

As you can see, the COMP and RUT showed the largest losses but even those were capped below one percent so today wasn't too terribly dramatic. However, the COMP has been lagging and showed a notable bounce yesterday. Today's sell-off reverses nearly all of those gains.

Overall, this view isn't much changed from what we saw this afternoon... weakness in most stock groups...strength in gold... also what I said for the COMP above also applies for the NDX.

Last night I said:

    Perhaps the biggest "non-events" of the day were the QQQQ and SMH failing to decisively break through the resistance zones we looked at earlier today. Note - I didn't say they were rejected, as they more or less held their ground into the close. They just failed to push through and are left poised to give us an indication tomorrow.

Even though we saw some weakness today, I would still say the same comments apply. After the close Xilinx (XLNX) made some positive remarks in their mid-quarter update and the stock is trading slightly higher. While this may give a boost to the semis, I don't think traders will make a major move until Intel's comments are out of way. I could be wrong on this so that is something to watch...

For now, I am off to dig into some more of the stocks from the scan I ran this afternoon so that I can hit the ground running with stock ideas tomorrow morning...

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