Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Worth a Read

by 4/20/2005 9:02 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Before the action get rolling...I wanted to point an article in yesterday's USA Today - "Oil prices not causing serious damage to economy"...

The title pretty much sums the article up and it serves as one more example of how few seem to have any worries...

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Don't Blink

by 4/20/2005 8:54 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The core CPI came out higher than expected...which ignited fears of inflation and knocked stock futures lower. However, if you blinked you might have missed the move...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

As you can see, S&P futures quickly dropped...then quickly rallied back...and now sit roughly two points above fair value. Gold is down 60 cents while oil is up 51 cents.

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Worth Noting?

by 4/20/2005 8:21 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

One of the more interesting comments I heard this morning involved IBM...which, of course, laid an earnings egg last week. While "big blue" was traditionally thought of as a bellwether, their report was described as an anomaly and it was suggested that the market should focus on the positive reports this morning.

I am always hesitant to put too much emphasis on a single piece of data or one random comment, but I thought this was worth at least mentioning. IBM could simply be an outlier, but I my contrarian "hackles" start to stand up when I see "bad news" dismissed away. As we paddle through the earnings flood, it might be worth seeing if this is merely an anomaly or an underlying trend.

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Good Morning

by 4/20/2005 8:13 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

With the earning's parade in full swing, we find futures pointing to a higher open. With an hour and a half until the open, the S&Ps sit roughly three and a half points above fair value. Oil is up 40 cents to 53.97 and gold is up 80 cents to 435.20.

As I alluded to last night, the positive earnings reports from both Yahoo (YHOO) and Intel (INTC) are the focus of the morning. INTC is indicated up more than three percent at this early hour while pre-open action in YHOO has the shares up five percent.


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Final Figures

by 4/19/2005 5:08 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

While I said it was an anti-climatic close, the indices did show moderate gains...

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1152.8 6.8 points 0.59 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10127.4 56 points 0.6 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 1932.4 19.5 points 1.02 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 594.9 9.6 points 1.64 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 14.43 -1.69 points -10.5 percent

While the SPX and DJIA showed decent gains, the strength was focused in the COMP and RUT.

Overall, we see that every symbol on my list was up on the day, with very strong gains in networking, gold and oil...internet stocks were lackluster in midday action but rallied into the close...semis held their gains as they attempt to bounce off their January lows.

Earlier today I updated the chart of the XOI and noted it was trading near obvious support. Today's rally has the XOI bouncing off that support. There are some interesting names in that group so it might be worth keeping an eye on...especially Amerada Hess (AHC)...

As I alluded to earlier, earnings will be the focus over the near-term. After the close there were a number of earnings reports...the big reports, of course, are Yahoo and Intel - both beat estimates and appear to be showing positive reactions so it will be interesting to watch how this carries through to the morning.

While they won't get the headlines, there are some small stocks, such CheckFree (CKFR), which may be more interesting. And that is where I will pick up tomorrow...


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