Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Into the Open

by 4/29/2005 9:09 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The Commerce and Labor Departments gave us a flurry of data at 8:30 that energized pre-open futures trading....


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

However, this failed to take out the earlier intraday highs. But the bulls have kept the S&Ps near their best levels for the overnight session as they sit seven points above fair value.


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Giddy...

by 4/29/2005 8:29 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

And of course, all the chatter this morning focuses on Microsoft's wonderful earnings report which has some giving the "all-clear" for tech stocks...Wait a minute you might ask, didn't the stock initially trade lower after hours amid confusion about how they did and concerns that revenues were lackluster? Yes that is true. But after some careful deliberation and some comments from MSFT's management, it was declared that their report was "good" and all could breathe a sigh of relief.

Okay, okay...I admit I am once again being a little facetious but I have a good caffeine buzz working so cut me some slack....please?

Cynicism aside, the results from Microsoft are the focus this morning and there are comments coming from both sides of the bull/bear debate, but I do believe that the bulls are yelling loudest. For an example of the comments, check out this article from CNN/Money - "Windows of opportunity?"...

While it is still early, and things are subject to change, the shares are up a percent and a half to 24.80 or so. Last night, I made a point of capturing the intraday chart and if you click on that link, you will see that 24.80 more or less just undoes the late-day decline in the shares so it will take more than that to improve the look of MSFT's chart...


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Good Morning

by 4/29/2005 8:06 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

I ended yesterday's session by saying the market "needed" a positive reaction and, as luck (?) would have it, we see stock futures staging a strong bounce this morning. With an hour and a half until the open, the S&Ps are more than five points above fair value. Oil is down 22 cents to 51.55 while gold is up 2.20 to 434.60.

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Final Figures

by 4/28/2005 5:04 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Today was not the session the bulls were hoping for...

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1143.2 -13.2 points -1.14 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10070.4 -128 points -1.3 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 1904.2 -26.2 points -1.36 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 575.0 -12.1 points -2.06 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 16.56 2.66 points 19.1 percent

...as we saw across the board selling of the major indices with the small cap group getting hit especially hard.

Overall we see that only bonds, drug stocks and oil managed to avoid showing a loss on the day...Earlier today we saw that oil was down two percent so you can surmise that it bounced this afternoon...And even though oil rebounded, oil related stocks did not...The NWX was the biggest mover but we already touch on this group...gold was down only slightly but gold stocks continue to get hammered...

As I said, not the session the bulls were hoping for as the COMP closed below last week's low and finished at its lowest level since last October. The RUT also broke below last week's lows and tagged a new low for 2005. The SPX and DJIA are still holding above their recent lows, but not by much.

The reaction to Microsoft's earnings appears to be taking on a slightly upbeat tone as some suggest that once all the charges are sorted out, the tech behemoth met or beat EPS estimates. And given the action today, the market is going to need a "positive" reaction as today's action leaves us on shaky ground. That is where I will pick up tomorrow...

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Microsoft

by 4/28/2005 4:30 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The numbers from Microsoft are out...but don't expect to make immediate sense of them as the reported EPS numbers are not comparable to published consensus estimates due to some charges. This sort of confusion has been the recent trend and I already lamented this issue when we looked at Amazon's numbers. It does appear that revenue was a bit lighter than expected.

The shares have been all over the board so we will likely need to wait until the morning to get a better handle on the situation. I did want to note the intraday chart below that shows the action heading into the report...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

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