Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

News and Futures

by 11/1/2004 8:56 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Scanning through the news reveals that not much is going on...Oracle raised its bid for PeopleSoft from $21 a share to $24 a share, which of course has PeopleSoft pushing higher. It might also be a good idea to keep an eye on the drug sector. The Wall Street Journal is highlighting some data that suggests Merck may have known about safety issues with Vioxx for some time.

Stock futures are ticking slightly higher and trading up almost a point above fair value. Gold and oil are also ticking up. Oil is up 50 cents while gold is up more than a point to trade above 430. I think that the chart we looked at Friday is still worth keeping in mind.


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Speaking Of It...

by 11/1/2004 8:39 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:
SchaeffersResearch.com Poll

How useful do you feel that the Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian column is?

Very Useful - I Read It Everyday
Somewhat Useful - I Read It a Couple Times a Week
I Look At It Occasionally But Not Often
I Don't Read It

As my post below hints at, and as regular readers have seen, I use our Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian column on regular basis. Out of curiosity, I was wondering how many of you use this column, so I thought it would make for an interesting poll question to help me identify what you are most interested in.


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Good Morning

by 11/1/2004 8:06 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

As you might expect given the election, we start the week with stock futures doing little. The S&Ps are trading flat against fair value and gives us little indication for the open. I suspect that the action over the next couple of days will be lackluster, but I have been wrong before.

One theme I want to briefly reiterate is the "election rally". When I flipped on the TV this morning, I saw a strategist calling for a post election rally. I am not saying that it can't happen, but it appears that many on the Street are expecting this. The market has a way of playing out in fashion that is not predictable. The problem is that if these lofty expectations are not met, selling will likely be the result.

I also want to mention that the strategist was urging the audience to disregard the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) because it was being hurt by a few key stocks and therefore showing a bias picture of negativity. While I agree that the method used to calculate the DJIA makes it a poor proxy for broad market representation, I find it interesting that it is pointed to by the bulls when it is holding up and then disregarded when it shows weakness. Perhaps I am off the mark on this, but I become curious when signs of weakness are argued away.

Finally, I want to point out (again) that at the beginning of the year, our Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian noted a huge push by strategists to focus on the large-cap, dividend-paying, defensive, safe-haven, yadda- yadda-yadda...stocks. Throughout the year we have seen these stocks crack and crumble. The drugs, the consumers, the tech bellwethers, the financial behemoths, just to name a few have seen problems hit and the stocks drop. The DJIA is dominated by these stocks and shows this. Yet, instead of taking notice we are told to look the other way...

Maybe I am just too cynical and need another cup of coffee...


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Final Figures

by 10/29/2004 4:46 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The bulls made a small push in the last half hour of trading, but as you can see it failed to gain much traction. This leaves the SPX poised below the resistance zone we discussed earlier. The COMP has faired much better as this marks the highest weekly close since early July.

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1130.2 2.8 points 0.24 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10027.5 23 points 0.2 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 1975.0 -0.7 points -0.04 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 583.8 -1.8 points -0.31 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 16.6 1.11 points 7.2 percent

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Limerick For Today

by 10/29/2004 4:15 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

I thought I would take a different approach to Limerick Friday. Instead of posting them as they came in, I compiled them into one document that you can download. In addition to our scheduled guest limerist Jocelynn Drake, we have surprise entries from Todd Salamone (who was supposed to contribute last week but failed to come through) and Joe Hargett. The latter two, deviated somewhat from this week's theme of "the markets and Halloween" and decided to poke a little fun at me. Click here to download the document...

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