Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

I Am Back!!!

by 4/22/2005 11:36 AM
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Yes - there is a cosmic sort of justice to the world...yesterday my "30 minute" meeting ran an hour but today, my "60 minute" meeting was over in 20 minutes...which on a "pro-forma" basis means I beat expectation by a dime for the past two days...

Checking in on the market, I see...

...that the larger cap names (SPX & DJIA) have moved back toward breakeven but tech and small caps (COMP & RUT) are not enjoying the same enthusiasm...networkers are still the weakest group...semis aren't showing much and still remain below Wednesday's high...oil and natural gas stocks have perked up as both indices just ticked to new highs on the session...if you missed my comments on these groups click here for XOI and click here for XNG...

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Keep an Eye on MXIM

by 4/22/2005 10:40 AM
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For what is it worth...I just noticed that Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) hit a new annual low today after gaining just 33 cents during yesterday's monster rally...


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As is usually the case on Fridays...I am making posts as I prepare for my weekly Friday meeting at 11:00 AM. For those longer-term trend followers out there, check out the monthly chart of the QQQQ with its 10-month and 20-month moving averages and an uptrending channel...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

The QQQQ is potentially breaking below the lower rail of the uptrending channel which is aligned with the 20-month moving average. You can also see that the 10-month moving average is converging on the 20-month average. A firm break of the 20-month average would start pulling the 10-month moving average lower and set-up a bearish cross - which is generally regarded as a sign of changing momentum. This is something that I will be keeping an eye on....

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In response to my comments on in my post Updated Index Charts, Mark says - "Speaking of trying to fight what seems like irrationality, there's an old saying (I forget who said it) but "the markets can remain irrational much longer than the average investor can remain solvent." An important thing to remember. "

My response - This is one of my favorite quotes! A search shows I have posted it at least five times in this space but I don't think it can hurt to mention it again -

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

~John Maynard Keynes

As I have said before, I used to have this posted on the wall above my screen as a constant reminder of the power of risk.

Note - I have seen this attributed to other authors so if someone can point me to evidence of the "real" author I will change it.


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As promised, here is a chart of the networking index...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

The index has rallied back to its recent lows which is the site of the 20-day moving average. This group has had a horrible 2005 so this will be a good test to see if the downtrend is showing signs of changing...

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