Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

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by 3/15/2005 9:15 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

I just touched on the charts of major indices...but make sure you check out Bernie's latest commentary - "Random Meanderings".

As I have noted before, I still read all of Bernie's commentaries because he a level deal of experience that you can't get any other way than to earn it....

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Stocks quoted in this article:

When I left off last night, I said I would pick up with some charts of the major indices this morning. Here is what I see...

Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

I have dropped some of the lines from the SPX chart to focus on the main levels. Intermediate-term support still sits near 1160 while I have moved the upper boundary to the recent closing high near 1125. I have left in the trendline of ascending lows which sits near 1200. A similar set-up is seen on the DJIA proxy - the Diamonds (DIA). The RUT is near the mid-point of its recent range but still holding its pattern of ascending lows. How these indices respond here will give us a clue to the strength of underlying the demand for stocks.

This brings us to the QQQQ which shows a somewhat different pattern. As I have said more times than I care to count, the cubes have been trapped below resistance near 38. You can see a slight pattern of ascending lows but it is feeble at best. However, it does give us something to watch. A break here would put the QQQQ at its recent lows which is the big level of support.


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Sale!

by 3/15/2005 8:43 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose 0.5 percent in February...According to the Dow Jones Newswires, economists were expecting a rise of 0.6 percent. The "ex-auto" number was also below expectations. However, data for January was revised higher from previous estimates.


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

All-in-all, this had little impact on stock futures which sit at their overnight highs...With 45 minutes until the open - S&P futures are nearly three points above fair value, gold is up 2.7 to 444.3, and oil is down 4 cents to 54.91...

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Good Morning

by 3/15/2005 8:07 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

We follow Monday's late-day bounce with an upward bias in stock futures. With an hour and a half until the open, S&P futures are trading two and a half points above fair value. Gold is up a point and a half to 443.1 while oil is down 3 cents to 54.92...

I am scanning through the headlines and, if you read this space yesterday, you can probably guess that it is a mix of theories about retail sales (due out in half an hour) and a recap of the Genentech news that I covered yesterday. In fact, you can even find me quoted on page C4 today's Wall Street Journal noting the DNA news. Which reminds me of a quote...

    I don't want to belong to any club that will accept me as a member. ~ Groucho Marx


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Final Figures

by 3/14/2005 4:44 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

It is somewhat difficult to put a description on the day...

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1206.8 6.8 points 0.56 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10804.5 30 points 0.3 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 2051.0 9.4 points 0.46 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 630.3 3.5 points 0.55 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 12.62 -0.34 points -2.6 percent

The action drifted sideways for most of the session and the major indices dipped in the early afternoon as oil moved higher and flirted with its previous highs. And then the DNA news hit and it seemed as if buyers jumped into the broad market. At some level, it had the feel of buyers being afraid they would miss a rally so they were waiting for any excuse to buy.

Looking at the "big picture" we see that biotech dominated the action. Internet, gold stocks and housing were weak all session but pared their losses into the close.

There has been some chatter about 1200 level being key on the SPX. That doesn't exactly stand out to me on a daily chart but I have seen a few discuss it and as we saw in the intraday chart of the SPX earlier, that was the floor so it appears at least some traders are watching it.

I was just checking out a couple of daily charts...and for the most part, today's action did little to change the "look" of the charts. The economic calendar starts to pick up this week, beginning with retail sales tomorrow morning...so retail sales and charts is where we will pick up the discussion tomorrow...


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