Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Final Figures

by 6/27/2005 4:37 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

I just posted an intraday chart of the SPX, and here are some figures to go along with that...

Index Index Value Point Change Percent Change
S&P 500 (SPX) 1190.7 -0.9 points -0.07 percent
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 10290.8 -7 points -0.1 percent
Nasdaq Composite (COMP) 2045.2 -8.1 points -0.39 percent
Russell 2000 (RUT) 628.3 -2.1 points -0.33 percent
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VXO) 11.50 -0.27 points -2.3 percent

For the most part the major indices were flat on the day. This morning I discussed support near 1190 on the SPX and it appears that the bulls and the bears are locked in a stalemate at this level. I also wanted to point out the VXO which still sits below 12, despite last week's pullback.


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Chart Chatter - SMH

by 6/27/2005 4:30 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

I meant to show this chart earlier today...but I was called into a meeting this afternoon and didn't get a chance to post it. I was going to hold it until tomorrow but I was afraid that "something" else would come and I wouldn't get to it and I want to make sure everyone sees it...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

Here we see the weekly chart of the Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) with the longer-term support and resistance we have been tracking. For the last month the SMH has been flirting with the resistance zone but its advances have not been warmly received. Now the group has begun to pullback from this zone...

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At the Close

by 6/27/2005 4:08 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

About an hour before the close it looked as if the bulls were making a push...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

However, this effort was short lived and the SPX ended the session near breakeven...

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Stocks quoted in this article:

Here are today's top and bottom performing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)...

Top Performing Sector Exchange Traded Funds:

  • Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) = +1.36 percent
  • iShares GS Natural Resource (IGE) = +1.21 percent
  • iShares DJ US Energy (IYE) = +1.19 percent
  • Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) = +1.07 percent
  • iShares DJ US Utilities (IDU) = +0.76 percent
  • Retail HOLDRS (RTH) = +0.64 percent
  • Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) = +0.55 percent
  • Utilities HOLDRS (UTH) = +0.49 percent

Bottom Performing Sector Exchange Traded Funds:

  • Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) = -0.75 percent
  • iShares DJ Transportation Average (IYT) = -0.86 percent
  • iShares DJ US Technology (IYW) = -1.06 percent
  • iShares GS Technology Indx (IGM) = -1.15 percent
  • Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) = -1.38 percent
  • iShares GS Networking (IGN) = -1.59 percent
  • iShares GS Semiconductor (IGW) = -1.83 percent
  • Internet HOLDRS (HHH) = -1.95 percent

Energy/oil related groups are in the lead along with utilities. On the downside we see that technology related groups are struggling with internet stocks showing the largest decline...

Note: If you are not familiar with ETFs, make sure you read the Education and FAQ sections in our ETF center.


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Stocks quoted in this article:

Jeff says - "I see the move toward the big caps as a sign of fear in the market safer, dividend paying, and lower statistical volatility. Does this have any merit?"

My response - I agree that many on the Street are urging investors to focus on the large cap-market. However, I am concerned this is flawed strategy as optimism is running very high that this group would withstand a downturn.

Last week I noted an article in Business Week's site that discussed some of the optimism on the large cap sector. I later used this article in our Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian column and the excerpt below is worth reposting here...

Regular readers of SchaeffersResearch.com will quickly see that this view strongly differs from ours. The optimism expressed above for large-cap tech stocks is echoed by many on Wall Street and can be seen in the fact that, according to Zacks, 22 of 25 analysts (88 percent) rank MSFT with a "buy" rating. Bernie himself touched on the optimism emanating from the Street in his recent comments to Barron's where he said:

    ...the S&P remains hostage to the fortunes of its biggest capitalization components and its top 10 currently includes such troubled names as Wal-Mart Stores, Pfizer, American International Group, IBM and, yes, Microsoft. In general, the mega-cap names that determine the S&P's fortunes remain over valued relative to their growth prospects, over owned by the big players, over recommended by Wall Street, and weak from a technical perspective.

A complete summary of Bernie's thoughts can be found in his column - A Look Ahead.


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