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NYSE net ticks spiked above 1000 a few minutes ago, but there was little in the way of follow-through as the indices remain near breakeven...
Note - click here for an explanation of why I look at this.
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I just saw a report on TV that noted if you ignore the market-cap weighting of the SPX and give every stock the same weight, the index would be near its 52 week high. In other words, if you give less weight to the large cap stocks that have collapsed, things aren't that bad. This is a very similar theme to what I ranted about in my opening comments this morning - ignore the signs of weakness and focus on things that aren't that bad.
My only problem with this it - how does "reconfiguring" the index help investors who have been sold these large cap stocks. How much money is tied up in index funds that track the SPX as it stands now? Yes, the smaller stocks have done better but the average investor is probably heavily weighted to the large cap names.
I have no problems focusing on the positives, but I think it is important to realize that the average investor is probably not benefiting from "alternative" views of the market.
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Given that the action in the major indices remains lackluster, I thought I would turn our attention to my sector list. Unfortunately, my list of 35 or so major sector Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) shows little more than a mixed picture. Tech related concerns are trading higher while gold, drugs and energy related firms are trading lower. Overall though, the moves are fairly mute...
Top Five Performing Sector Exchange Traded Funds:
- iShares GS Software Fund (IGV) = +1.26 percent
- Internet HOLDRS (HHH) = +1.13 percent
- Telecom HOLDRS (TTH) = +1.01 percent
- Software HOLDRS (SWH) = +0.98 percent
- iShares DJ Telecommunications (IYZ) = +0.57 percent
Bottom Five Performing Sector Exchange Traded Funds:
- iShares DJ Energy (IYE) = -0.76 percent
- iShares DJ Healthcare (IYH) = -1.03 percent
- Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) = -1.46 percent
- Pharmaceutical HOLDRS (PPH) = -1.55 percent
- Amex Gold Bug Index (HUI) = -1.67 percent
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It appears that the bulls are not yet making a push...The "rally" I mentioned in the intraday chart below fizzled out just about the time I posted it. The SPX has moved back towards breakeven. Gold has also reversed earlier strength and is trading down more than a dollar to 428...
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I wanted to share some thoughts we are kicking around on the trading floor...
We had an email thread discussing how the buy-and-hold mantra has been "sold" to the general public. Bob Rack, our President and COO, made the comment that the there are two concepts that people have learned over the past 20 years. One is that you must be invested and index funds are the best way to be invested. The other is that the trick is to buy and hold for retirement. Over time, the market goes up.
As he noted, these ideas have been heavily promoted by the mutual fund industry. Yes this is the same industry has seen a number of investigations, yet still maintains a sterling reputation.
The feedback I read from you on a daily basis leads me to believe you are ahead of the curve when it comes to blindly following the Street. I do, however, think that you are still in the minority when it comes to such thinking. While the implications are far from certain, you have to wonder if it can really work out that "easily". How many people do you know who are still sitting on stocks purchased in the late 1990s waiting for them to come back?
Please, note, I don't mean for this to be all gloom-and-doom, but I think it is important to note that general public sits in a precarious position. Feel free to disagree, I just wanted to stir some thoughts...
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