Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

From the Archives

by 6/28/2005 3:56 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

I have been going through some of my old files and just stumbled across something that you might find interesting...The list below was a set "lessons learned" that I had created in May 2002 to help me deal with the bear market...What struck is how many of these are still guidelines that I believe in today - three years later...

Nick's Lessons Learned (as of May 2002)

  • Sentiment is a must
  • Discipline
  • Patience (a.k.a. - Wait for your pitch)
  • Ask yourself - Why now? (a.k.a. - What's your catalyst?)
  • Don't chase stocks
  • Don't get cute (a.k.a. - You are not that smart)
  • Prepare for trading outside of market hours
  • Establish targets and stops before entering a trade
  • Monitor that feeling in the pit of your stomach and do NOT follow it
  • Stops work
  • Options trading is about managing probabilities
  • Go back to winners (a.k.a. - Trends persist)
  • Write out your notes before executing the trade
  • Avoid making intraday decisions whenever possible
  • Make sure the risk is worth the potential gain
  • Do not let your exposure become too far skewed to one side
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Stocks quoted in this article:

Here are today's top and bottom performing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)...

Top Performing Sector Exchange Traded Funds:

  • iShares DJ Transportation Average (IYT) = +2.30 percent
  • iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) = +2.02 percent
  • Biotech HOLDRS (BBH) = +1.80 percent
  • Retail HOLDRS (RTH) = +1.77 percent
  • iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index (IJR) = +1.59 percent
  • Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) = +1.55 percent
  • Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) = +1.50 percent
  • iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) = +1.49 percent

Bottom Performing Sector Exchange Traded Funds:

  • streetTRACKS Wilshire REIT Fund (RWR) = +0.08 percent
  • iShares C&S Realty Majors (ICF) = +0.00 percent
  • iShares GS Natural Resource (IGE) = -0.50 percent
  • iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) = -0.59 percent
  • streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD) = -1.09 percent
  • iShares DJ US Energy (IYE) = -1.34 percent
  • Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) = -1.38 percent
  • Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) = -1.72 percent

We head into the final hour of trading with an upside bias. Transports are in the lead but small caps are close behind. On the downside we see that oil services, energy and gold are pulling back as are bonds...

Note: If you are not familiar with ETFs, make sure you read the Education and FAQ sections in our ETF center.

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Still looking for Panic

by 6/28/2005 2:43 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Continuing on my "panic" post from earlier...I want to check on the long-term Investors Intelligence graph for signs of "panic"...


Chart Courtesy of Schaeffer's Sentiment PowerTools

Once again not only do we not find signs of panic, but we see hints of complacency. The percent bullish is near the upper edge of its longer-term range and the bearish percent is near the lower edge of its longer-term range. In other words, bullish opinion outpaces bearish opinion by a fairly wide margin. At previous bottoms the bearish percent and the bullish percent were much closer...

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Checking Back on Affymetrix

by 6/28/2005 2:23 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

I was scanning through some charts and noticed Affymetrix (AFFX) was on the move...I last touched on this stock earlier this month and noted the shares were sitting above support amid a skeptical sentiment backdrop. Checking the updated chart we see...


Created with SuperCharts by Omega Research

The shares failed to hold above their 20-day moving average but remained above the support zone. Today the stock is bouncing off that support and is testing its recent highs. A check of the sentiment profile shows that skepticism is still the dominant emotion...

  • Percent of analysts tracked by Zacks who rate the stock with a "buy": 14%
  • Number of analysts tracked by Zacks: 7
  • Short interest as a percent of float: 11.2%
  • Short interest ratio: 6.326
  • Put/call ratio percent rank: 35.3%

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Stocks quoted in this article:

Even though my alert for NYSE net ticks has been quiet this afternoon, the buying has continued...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson/ILX

Yesterday morning I noted support near 1190 on the SPX and that has so far served as a springboard as we head into Thursday's FOMC meeting...


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