Stocks quoted in this article:
The recent preponderance of triple-digit moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has gotten some well-deserved publicity. And it's, of course, impacted volatility readings; 10-day realized volatility (RV) in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has spiked up to 17, the high-water mark since late April. What's more, that April reading was really thanks to a big dip in one session (April 15). This one is more of a consistent uptick in the daily moves.
What's gotten less publicity is that the market really hasn't made a meaningful move net-net. Here's SPY over the past month of trading (with 10-day RV on the bottom of the graph).
Chart courtesy of TD Ameritrade
SPY hit the highs on May 22, then took a tumble in the next session. Since then we've had a lot of noise and angst and Hindenburg Omens and Nikkei crashes and yen explosions and talk of Dreaded Tapering and whatnot. And yet, SPY is essentially unchanged since May 23. That's hard to believe; it feels like the market has gotten much uglier than these numbers suggest.
The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) certainly reflects that perception of unrest. Here's how it looks over the last month.
Chart courtesy of TD Ameritrade
VIX closed at 14.07 on May 23, so even after yesterday's market pop, the "fear gauge" has rallied about 20% over a four-week period, where SPY hasn't budged.
Even "Worst ETF Ever" iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) has acted well.
Chart courtesy of TD Ameritrade
It's up about 10% since May 23, which is perfectly in line with VIX rallying 20%. Basically, the VIX term structure has almost the exact same slope it had on May 23, just a higher basis (chart courtesy of VIX Central).
Chart courtesy of VIX Central
Now, I always preach that volatility indicators measure... volatility. They're sometimes confused with inverse stock ETFs. So, in a sense this is all appropriate action. Even though the market itself hasn't actually moved, realized volatility has demonstrably ticked up.
But by the same token, that across-the-board spike in volatility unaccompanied by an actual net market move is a bit bullish on a contrary basis. We have literally the worst time of year to own options about to happen. The stretch from June expiration to the return from the July 4 break is notoriously slow year after year. We have Big Ben on tap this week, and that could obviously cause some gyrations. But it's very likely that's the last piece of "good" volatility news for a few weeks.
Disclaimer: The views represented on this blog are those of the individual author only, and do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.