Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Analyst Upgrades: Amazon.com, Inc., Cisco Systems, Inc., and SunPower Corporation

Analysts upwardly revised their ratings on AMZN, CSCO, and SPWR

by 5/16/2013 9:12 AM
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Analysts are weighing in today on Internet marketplace Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), tech concern Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO), and solar energy issue SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes.

  • AMZN -- which has added more than 6% so far this year and is presently priced at $266.56 -- was initiated with a "buy" rating and a price target of $310 at Lazard ahead of the opening bell. Meanwhile, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.04 for Amazon.com, Inc., confirming calls bought to open have slightly outnumbered puts during the past two weeks. This ratio arrives in the 66th annual percentile, meaning traders have been picking up calls over puts at an accelerated clip.

  • Up 27% on a year-over-year basis, CSCO was flooded with positive attention this morning, following yesterday's stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings report. Evercore Partners lifted its price target to $26 from $23, and brokerage firms including UBS, BMO, Nomura, and MKM Partners followed suit. Cisco Systems is no stranger to optimism from the brokerage bunch, though. The stock currently boasts 19 "strong buys" and two "buy" endorsements, compared to seven "holds" and two "strong sell" suggestions. Also, CSCO's average 12-month price target of $23.53 denotes expected upside of about 10.9% to Wednesday's closing price of $21.21.

  • SPWR is also in the bullish spotlight today, after the company said it expects its second-quarter earnings to easily exceed analysts' projections. As a result, Northland Capital upped its price target to $33 from $17, while Lazard, Baird, and RBC also issued upward price-target adjustments. SunPower Corporation has gained a whopping 267% year-to-date to hover at $20.65, yet bearish speculation on the stock remains alive and well. Short interest on SPWR jumped by 38.5% during the past two reporting periods, and now these pessimistic bets account for almost 24% of the equity's available float.

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Weekly Contrarian: There's Room on The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) Bandwagon

A reversal in sentiment among options traders could bolster PG even higher

by 5/16/2013 8:21 AM
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Activist investor Bill Ackman's bullish predictions for The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) "should come to fruition for patient investors," especially if the blue chip can "optimize pricing and improve productivity," notes this Barron's column (subscription required).

Late last week, Ackman said PG shares could hit $125 within the next couple of years, representing a premium of about 55% to the stock's current price of $80.68. Furthermore, the Pershing Square CEO thinks PG could eventually boast fiscal-year earnings of $6 per share; for the fiscal year ending in June, analysts expect earnings of $4.04 per share.

Just yesterday, Procter & Gamble CFO Jon Moeller hit the stage at a Goldman Sachs-sponsored event, hinting at several new products in the works. "As P&G introduces more products in developing markets -- especially in the beauty category -- it can gain share, and raise prices," the Barron's author opines. What's more, the company "already is firing on several other cylinders," thanks to ongoing cost-cutting measures, even with its Pantene and Olay brands losing market share. As such, and with Ackman in the background, the columnist says PG looks appealing right now.

Contrarian Perspective

PG has added nearly 19% since the start of the year, outperforming the record-setting Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which is up just over 16% in 2013. Plus, the stock recently bounced off support at its 10-week moving average, and is trading within a stone's throw of its all-time high of $82.54, tagged in mid-to-late April.

Despite PG's technical prowess and solid fundamental backdrop, not everyone on Wall Street is a fan. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.22 ranks in the 66th percentile of its annual range. In simpler terms, options traders have purchased PG puts over calls at a faster-than-usual clip during the past couple of weeks.

As a result, the security sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.68, suggesting puts more than double calls among options with a shelf-life of three months or less. Even more telling, this ratio sits just 1 percentage point from an annual acme, implying that near-term options traders have rarely been more put-heavy during the past year.

As PG continues its quest for new highs, the bearish holdouts in the options pits could hit the exits -- translating into a contrarian tailwind for the shares.


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5 Theories Behind the VIX Stagnation

The VIX is going nowhere while the SPX tackles record highs. What gives?

by 5/16/2013 7:49 AM
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The market goes up every day, and yet the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) basically goes nowhere. We're up about 4% just since May 2, yet the VIX is pretty much unchanged since then. VIX actually hit its highest high in nine sessions yesterday, and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) hit yet another new high?

What in the world is going on here?

Here are a few theories:

  1. It's a sign that this rally is doomed. Smart money is loading up on options!

    Well, I'm never a proponent of this line of thinking. I believe in *smart money* in individual stock options. I was a market maker for 13 years; I got to see that phenomenon first-hand about a thousand times. We used to joke that "Goldman has some great charts" when they uncannily loaded up on calls on something ahead of a stock move. But on the market as a whole? Eh. It's unlikely even the best-connected of us out there really *know* exactly what's coming next. Besides, they're all machines now, anyway. In a vacuum, I find it misguided and bullish when the market as a whole wants to pay up for options.

    Which leads me to…

  2. The VIX is objectively cheap. Maybe there's just not much downside left.

    VIX can get a bit lower than this. We've seen 11 and 10 and even 9 fulls over the course of time. But we're really not all that far above those levels. Yes, that's a big percentage move, but it's often better to look at VIX moves in absolute terms. A move from 13 down to 12 isn't that cosmically different from a move from 23 to 22, even though the percentage move is much greater. Parsing small-point moves is often just an over-analysis of noise.

    Besides, VIX tends to drop in something resembling a stair-step motion. It makes new lows and hovers for a while in a range before making new lows again. Perhaps we're just going to hang in this area for a bit longer. The Memorial Day weekend will hit us soon, as will the overall summer doldrums. There's a good chance that if VIX starts sliding again, that's when we'll see it.

  3. It has something to do with the VIX roll.

    VIX proxies the implied volatility of a 30-day at-the-money (ATM) option in SPX. It uses the nearest two SPX options cycles, but rolls out of the nearest cycle when it's within eight days of expiration. That completed on Monday, so that's when we would have seen a quirky move in VIX. We really didn't, though.

    That roll would not affect VIX futures or VIX ETN's. And they've held relatively strong this week, too, which suggests the relative strength in VIX is real and not some sort of statistical anomaly.

  4. It's not abnormal for VIX to lift in a strong market.

    Well, the best example of this is the Tech Bubble. Volatility exploded across the board as stocks exploded. Think of the Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) volatility graph we posted yesterday, but in 100's of names and the market indices themselves. In fact, skew even inverted as out-of-the-money (OTM) calls traded at higher implied volatility than ATM's.

    We're not exactly in that sort of bubble just yet, but it just highlights that implied volatility is not an exact inverse to stock price action. Volatility can pick up on upside moves as well.

  5. The options market won't settle down until Tim Tebow signs somewhere.

    This is the most likely explanation of all.

OK, seriously, the odd relative VIX strength is likely a function of many factors, none of which are all that revealing of future market direction. I find it modestly bullish on the margins, but suspect it's more noise than anything else.

Disclaimer: The views represented on this blog are those of the individual author only, and do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.


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The major market indexes are higher this afternoon, as Wall Street shrugs off a round of lackluster economic data. Among the equities in focus include bleach behemoth The Clorox Co (NYSE:CLX), home beverage maker SodaStream International Ltd (NASDAQ:SODA), and biopharma firm Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:QCOR), which have all attracted the attention of analysts.

  • CLX is flirting with breakeven at $88.11, as traders digest a downgrade to "neutral" from "outperform" at Credit Suisse. The brokerage firm also trimmed its 2013 and 2014 per-share earnings estimates, but said it still believes earnings-per-share growth will accelerate sequentially next year. Despite adding almost 20% so far this year, CLX is no stranger to skepticism. The stock sports 14 "holds" and one "sell" rating, with not a single "buy" in sight. Plus, short interest represents more than a week's worth of pent-up buying demand, at Clorox's average pace of trading. Should CLX resume its longer-term uptrend, a mass exodus of bears could add contrarian fuel to the fire.

  • Moving on, SODA rallied to a new annual high of $66.69, but has since trimmed its lead to 1.7% to linger at $65.13. Ahead of the bell, Roth Capital lifted its price target on the stock to $75, marking a second straight session of upbeat analyst attention. There's still plenty of room on SodaStream's bullish bandwagon, too. Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) sits at a 12-month peak of 1.05, implying that near-term options traders haven't been more put-skewed at any other time during the past year. Furthermore, short interest accounts for 40% of SODA's total available float, and it would take more than 14 sessions to repurchase all of these pessimistic positions, at the stock's average daily trading volume. A reversal in sentiment among options players, or a short-squeeze situation, could amplify buying pressure on SODA.

  • Finally, QCOR has surrendered 8.4% to explore the $38.85 vicinity, giving back most of Tuesday's gains. Shareholders are shrugging off a price target hike to $50 from $41 at Mizuho, as well last night's investor presentation at a BofA/Merrill healthcare conference. Questcor could find an ally in its 20-month moving average, which contained the stock's rally attempts earlier this year, but could now serve as support. What's more, should the equity continue its longer-term ascent, a short-covering rally could serve as a contrarian tailwind. Currently, short interest accounts for more than half of QCOR's total float, representing nearly 19 sessions' worth of pent-up buying demand.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) is up 29 points, or 0.2%, to 15,243.88, overcoming earlier losses triggered by some lackluster economic data. The Empire State manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to negative 1.43 in May, a notable drop from April's reading of 3.05. Meanwhile, the Labor Department's producer price index (PPI) slipped by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% last month -- disappointing economists, and notching its largest monthly drop since February 2010. Core wholesale prices rose 0.1%, which also fell short of consensus estimates. Also of note, the Fed revealed that industrial production decreased by a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in April, while capacity utilization edged down to 77.8%. Both figures marked larger-than-anticipated declines. Nevertheless, the blue-chip barometer still managed to touch yet another record intraday high of 15,253.69, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) cruised to an all-time peak of 1,655.66.

Here are a few noteworthy stats at midday:

  1. The equity put/call volume ratio across all 11 options exchanges sits at 0.78, with 4.2 million calls crossing the tape so far today, versus 3.3 million puts.

  2. Among the equities with call-slanted activity is Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE:A), which has gained about 4% -- and tagged a new multi-year high of $46.49 -- since the opening bell, exceeding analysts' quarterly earnings projections yesterday. Currently, calls account for 70.8% of the security's intraday option volume. At last check, A was trading at $45.74.

  3. The Nasdaq shows an advance/decline ratio of 1.31, with the number of upward movers outpacing the decliners.

  4. Among the Nasdaq's major advancers is Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:HALO), which has surged around 7.3% in intraday trading, after analysts at Piper Jaffray initiated coverage of the stock with an "overweight" rating this morning. HALO is presently trading at $7.20.

  5. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) is 0.2 point, or 1.3%, higher, to hover at 12.93.

  6. The put/call volume ratio on the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSEARCA:VXX) -- which is currently docked at 18.26 -- checks in at 1.57, with puts outnumbering calls.

View a real-time chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2 Minute (INDEXDJX:.DJI).

Unusual Option Volume at Midday


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