Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

In a Shaky Market, Biotech Stocks Are Still Working

XBI is one way to play the resilient biotech sector

by 5/16/2012 3:53 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Major market indexes are in a serious slump, with the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) working on a streak of 10 consecutive down days -- assuming there isn't a serious bounce into the close today. This phenomenon hasn't been witnessed since 1989. In times like this, when markets seemingly can't get out of their own way, a stock picker can usually find pockets of strength where capital can be deployed. One such example is currently the biotechnology sector.

The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is an exchange-traded fund that contains a basket of different biotech stocks. Looking at the chart, you will notice that the XBI is near its 52-week highs, even with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) nearly 100 points off its highs of the year. The chart pattern is an inverse head-and-shoulders that appears ready to break to new highs.

A few individual names in that ETF which happen to be favorites here at Schaeffer's are Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA), Amarin Corp. (AMRN), and Pharmacyclics (PCYC). Biotechnology stocks are notorious for making huge moves on news, such as FDA trials or buyouts. If you don't want exposure to one individual name, then XBI is the way to go. If you're looking for a big move, however, find an individual stock within that sector and define your risk.

XBI price chart
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

During shaky times in the markets, it is often best to look at what has been working. These names remain strong, even in the face of the entire European mess. If the broad market can regain some footing in the near future, one would have to think that the names in this sector will break out to new highs.


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Highs & Lows: AOL, Banco Santander, and Lennar

AOL, ABMD, and LEN hit new annual highs, while ANF, ARUN, and STD fell to new annual lows

by 5/16/2012 2:31 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

The major market indexes are battling breakeven this afternoon, torn between upbeat housing and industrial production data and ongoing political tension in Greece. As the Street begins to digest the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) April meeting, stocks at new annual highs are easily outnumbering new lows. The NYSE currently tallies 34 securities at new 52-week highs, versus 110 annual lows. Likewise, the Nasdaq has gathered 29 annual highs, and 93 lows. Among the stocks hitting notable technical milestones in today's trading are AOL, Inc. (AOL), Banco Santander SA (STD), and Lennar Corporation (LEN).

Notable Stocks at Annual Highs

  • AOL, Inc. (AOL - 26.72) topped out today at $27.49, notching its best price since November 2010. AOL has added 44.7% over the past 52 weeks, and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) now stands at an elevated 66. Analysts, however, are not exactly upbeat toward the Internet issue, as three out of eight analysts maintain a "buy" rating.
  • Abiomed, Inc. (ABMD - 23.30) enjoyed an earnings-induced upswing today, jumping to a decade-plus peak of $26.17. ABMD has climbed roughly 33% over the past year. The stock's RSI is seated at a middling 52, and 63% of analysts have doled out a "strong buy" endorsement.
  • Homebuilder Lennar Corporation (LEN - 29.60) tagged an intraday peak of $30.12 -- in territory not explored since August 2007. The equity is sitting on an outstanding year-over-year gain of 66.5%. LEN's RSI rests at 57, while eight out of 15 analysts consider it a "buy."

Notable Stocks at Annual Lows

  • Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF - 38.60) hit the $38.26 mark -- its lowest price since October 2010 -- after a poorly received first-quarter report. ANF has hacked off about 38% during the past 52 weeks, and its RSI of 38 is inching toward oversold territory. Downgrades could push the stock even lower, as 47% of brokerage firms maintain " buy" ratings.
  • Following price-target cuts from UBS (to $24.50 from $26) and Needham (to $25 from $28), Aruba Networks, Inc. (ARUN - 15.80) dropped to a near two-year low of $15.65 today, exacerbating its year-long 48.5% decline. The stock's RSI is parked at a slim 25, while 12 out of 18 analysts have doled out a "buy" recommendation.
  • Banco Santander SA (STD - 5.71) slipped to its worst price since March 2009, at the $5.67 level, as traders continue to contemplate a possible exit of Greece from the euro zone. Today's pullback has deepened the stock's 49.2% 52-week deficit. The equity's RSI stands at 39, and two out of five analysts consider STD worthy of a "strong buy" endorsement.


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Option Bears Brace for More Downside from Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)

Puts are popular as AAPL shares test support in the $550 neighborhood

by 5/16/2012 12:21 PM
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Options traders have been snapping up puts on Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), with speculators apparently looking for the stock to pull back. Over the past 10 days, shares of AAPL have garnered a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.71 on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio ranks higher than 96% of other such readings taken over the past year, indicating that traders on these exchanges have rarely bought to open puts over calls at a faster pace.

In the soon-to-expire front-month series, put players have focused their efforts on AAPL's May 550 strike. This option carries peak put open interest of 25,149 contracts. Not far behind is the May 540 put, with 21,917 contracts outstanding. AAPL is currently lingering around $551 -- so it looks as though a healthy number of traders are bracing for the stock to slide through the end of this week, when May-dated options are slated to expire.

Elsewhere, short sellers are also raising the bearish stakes, with short interest on AAPL ballooning by 40.6% during the most recent reporting period. However, these pessimistic bets account for a tame 1.2% of the equity's float.

On the charts, AAPL has gained a market-beating 36.6% so far in 2012, but the stock is off about 14% from April's record high of $644. The shares are currently testing support in the round-number $550 area, and AAPL is at risk of notching a daily close beneath its 80-day moving average for the first time this year.

Daily Chart of AAPL since December 2011 With 80-Day Moving Average


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Shut Up Greece, Facebook's Here

Five things to know about the upcoming Facebook IPO

by 5/16/2012 11:55 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

While Greece and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) have garnered most of the headlines over the past couple of weeks, Facebook's (FB) IPO has definitely received its fair share of attention. With the company's initial public offering scheduled for this Friday, I just wanted to share some of the interesting things I've noticed during the run-up to this "historic" event.

  1. The company has already had a blockbuster film made about it… not too shabby.
  2. There is a Facebook IPO countdown ticker running at the top of CNBC.com.
  3. Rumors have surfaced that General Motors (GM) plans to stop advertising on FB.
  4. The company increased the number of shares it will offer by 25%, most of which are coming from shareholders looking to cash out. Peter Thiel, one of Facebook's original investors, is among the insiders increasing his planned sale and is more than doubling the amount he originally planned to sell.
  5. Facebook this week raised the range for its offering to $34-$38 per share from $28-$35.

So what does all of this mean? First off, most people love Facebook. I do find it intriguing that more and more insiders are looking to cash out just as the company goes public, and the timing of GM's decision is also quite interesting. Perhaps these are signs that all the hoopla around the company is a little extreme.

On the other hand, one of the odd things I've seen is the Barron's Big Money poll, where FB was mentioned as one of the most overvalued stocks. Remember, this stock isn't even trading yet! LinkedIn (LNKD) and Groupon (GRPN) were both on that list, too, so there definitely seems to be a little skepticism toward social media companies. It seems like the retail crowd may be excited about this upcoming IPO, while strategists and institutions are a little more skeptical. It is hard for me to get a read until I see some price action from the stock -- but the one thing I'm certain about is that everyone on Earth has a Facebook account besides me.


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Data Drop: Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey

Bearish sentiment among financial advisers edged up, according to the latest II survey

by 5/16/2012 11:03 AM
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The weekly figures from the Investors Intelligence (II) sentiment survey are out. Here are the highlights:

  • Bullish sentiment among advisers rose to 39.4% (0.7% increase).
  • Bearish sentiment among advisers rose to 22.3% (1.9% increase).
  • 38.3% of advisers foresee a correction in the market.

So there was a rise in both the bulls and the bears this week. The bigger rise was in the bears, so less optimism this week than last week, according to the bulls-minus-bears line. The bulls-minus-bears line is between what we consider an "extreme," and heading lower. Both bulls and bears are at relatively low levels, meaning a lot of investors are in the "correction" camp, which I look at as a transition area between bullish and bearish sentiment. In other words, it appears that investors do not have a lot of conviction either way.

Bulls-Bears Line in Relation to the SPX

The table below compares the current data to typical data since 2005. We have significantly fewer bulls and fewer bears than usual, meaning a very high level of advisers in the "correction" camp. The bulls-minus bears-line is right about average.

II Bulls-Bears Data since 2005


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