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The latest deal with DreamWorks Animation SKG, Inc (NASDAQ:DWA) is just more evidence that Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), and not cable television, is "the future of entertainment," opines this MarketWatch column.
More specifically, DWA is giving NFLX the first run at 300 hours of programming, with exclusive initial video rights to The Croods -- and more -- coming next year, marking the biggest deal in NFLX history. Plus, Netflix has scored the first video rights to new films from The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) and its Pixar division, beginning in 2016. Considering a monthly Netflix subscription costs $7.99, compared to the average monthly cable bill of $70, "Would you rather park the kids in front of Nickelodeon, or just hand over your Netflix login information?" the author asks. If NFLX's price action this week is any indication -- the stock is up 9.7% -- Wall Street is betting on the latter.
As such, NFLX and its rivals "are hitting big cable where it hurts: with the younger audience." And, while the company's chief content officer admits that "the goal is to become HBO faster than HBO can become us," the columnist points out that HBO doesn't even seem to be trying.
Contrarian Perspective
NFLX has been on fire on the charts, even before this week, outperforming the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by nearly 19 percentage points during the past three months. Nevertheless, the stock remains surrounded by skeptics -- which could translate into contrarian upside.
On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.04 ranks in the 87th percentile of its annual range. In other words, option buyers have initiated bearish bets over bullish at a much faster clip than usual during the past couple of weeks. In similar fashion, the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.15 sits in the 77th annual percentile, suggesting near-term options bettors are more put-skewed than usual.
Elsewhere, short interest still accounts for a healthy 17.3% of NFLX's total available float. Meanwhile, just six out of 26 analysts consider the stock a "buy" or better.
Should NFLX keep flexing its muscle both on and off the charts, a mass exodus of option bears, a short-squeeze situation, or a flood of upbeat analyst attention could help propel the shares even higher.