Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog

Stocks On the Move: Caterpillar Inc., Celgene Corporation, and IPC The Hospitalist Company Inc

CAT, CELG, and IPCM are moving sharply in Thursday's trading

by 10/23/2014 12:52 PM
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U.S. stocks are in the black this afternoon, as Wall Street cheers solid blue-chip earnings. One of the leading Dow components at midday is big-cap construction concern Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT), and biopharmaceutical issue Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ:CELG) and inpatient care provider IPC The Hospitalist Company Inc (NASDAQ:IPCM) are also making notable moves. Here's a quick look at how CAT, CELG, and IPCM are faring on the charts today.

  • CAT is 4.5% higher at $98.78, second only to 3M Co (NYSE:MMM) among blue chips, and helping prop the Dow to a 242-point lead. CAT traders are celebrating the company's stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings report, as well as an upwardly revised profit outlook for 2014. The shares of Caterpillar Inc. are now 9.2% higher year-to-date, though the equity has yet to enter triple-digit territory today, peaking at $99.94 earlier. In the options pits, short-term traders could be hitting the exits; the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) sits at 2.22, indicating that puts more than double calls among options expiring within three months. Furthermore, this ratio stands higher than 88% of all other readings from the past year, implying that near-term traders have rarely been more put-skewed.

  • CELG is up 6.2% to flirt with $100.66, and earlier touched a record high of $100.91 -- marking the stock's first foray north of the century mark. Bolstering the security was a stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings report, as well as the company's announcement that it's finalizing plans for a Phase III trial of its Crohn's drug. Thanks to today's rally, Celgene Corporation boasts a year-to-date gain of 19.3%, which could intimidate short-term option bears; the equity's SOIR of 0.80 ranks in the 74th percentile of its annual range.

  • IPCM is the worst performer on the Nasdaq, down 17% to linger near $39.05. What's more, the security touched a near-two-year low of $36.12 earlier in the session, as shareholders and analysts balk at the company's downwardly revised full-year outlook. No fewer than four brokerage firms have cut their price targets on IPC The Hospitalist Company Inc, and Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to "market perform" from "outperform." Not everyone is jeering today's swoon, though; short interest accounts for 12.3% of IPCM's total available float, representing more than 16 sessions' worth of pent-up buying demand, at the equity's average pace of trading.

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Analyst Update: Alcatel Lucent SA (ADR), AT&T Inc., and GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR)

Analysts adjusted their ratings on ALU, T, and GSK

by 10/23/2014 11:40 AM
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Analysts are weighing in today on networking firm Alcatel Lucent SA (ADR) (NYSE:ALU), telecom issue AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T), and pharmaceutical power GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) (NYSE:GSK). Here's a quick look at today's brokerage notes on ALU, T, and GSK.

  • ALU is up 4.8% to trade at $2.61, after being upgraded to "hold" from "underperform" at Jefferies. Nevertheless, the shares remain nearly 41% lower on a year-to-date basis, and are facing overhead resistance from their descending 20-day moving average, located at $2.69. Additionally, the equity recently hit a fresh 12-month low. In spite of these unimpressive long-term technicals, Alcatel Lucent SA's (ADR) 10-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) checks in at 27.53. Relative to the past year's worth of readings, the current ratio ranks in the 70th annual percentile, signaling an unusually strong preference for long ALU calls over puts. On the fundamental front, the company will report third-quarter earnings before the open next Thursday, Oct. 30.

  • T has shed 2.7% to churn near $33.56, after a disappointing third-quarter earnings report prompted no fewer than five brokerage firms to lower their price targets on the security. Similarly, Hilliard Lyons downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "long-term buy." On the other side of the fence, Cowen raised its price target on AT&T Inc. to $39 from $38, to go along with its "market perform" opinion. On the charts, the equity has lost 4.5% in 2014. Elsewhere, options traders have been betting more bearishly than usual on T, per its 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 1.35, which sits higher than more than three-quarters of all other readings from the last year.

  • GSK has tacked on 2.5% to trade at $45.54, following news that the firm may float its HIV unit, Viiv Healthcare. Also helping the shares was an upgrade to "overweight" from "equal weight," and price-target hike to 1,600 pounds from 1,485 pounds, at Barclays -- although Bryan Garnier, Deutsche Bank, and Leerink all slashed their respective price targets. Overall, it's not been a good year for GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR), which is down nearly 15% in 2014. Not surprisingly, Wall Street is skeptically arrayed toward the stock, with seven "hold" and "strong sell" ratings outweighing just one "strong buy."

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Analyst Downgrades: 3D Systems Corporation, EMC Corporation, and Molycorp Inc

Analysts issued bearish notes on DDD, EMC, and MCP

by 10/23/2014 10:13 AM
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Analysts are downwardly revising their ratings on 3-D printing firm 3D Systems Corporation (NYSE:DDD), IT issue EMC Corporation (NYSE:EMC), and rare earths specialist Molycorp Inc (NYSE:MCP). Here's a quick look at today's bearish brokerage notes on DDD, EMC, and MCP.

  • A dismal quarterly and full-year revenue forecast from DDD sent the shares 15% lower yesterday, and analysts were quick to weigh in with a round of price-target cuts and downgrades. Brean, for example, lowered its outlook for the stock to "hold" from "buy," while Pipar Jaffray slashed its price target by $13 to $37, and underscored its "neutral" rating. More bearish brokerage notes could be on the horizon for a stock that's down 60.5% year-to-date to trade at $36.67. At present, seven out of 16 covering analysts maintain a "strong buy" recommendation toward 3D Systems Corporation, while the average 12-month price target of $52.80 stands at a 44% premium to current trading levels.

  • EMC made a number of headlines yesterday, after reporting worse-than-expected third-quarter earnings, downwardly revising its full-year earnings forecast, and saying it will absorb most of Cisco Systems, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:CSCO) stake in VCE. In the wake of yesterday's busy day, at least four brokerage firms reduced their price targets on the stock, including Pacific Crest, which cut its target by $2 to $30, yet reiterated its "outperform" suggestion. Technically speaking, EMC Corporation has added roughly 9% in 2014 to trade at $27.36, but option traders have taken the bearish route in recent months. In fact, at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.35 ranks just 10 percentage points from an annual pessimistic peak.

  • MCP is down 3.1% at $1.27, after Morgan Stanley slashed its price target on the equity by 60% to $1. In addition, the brokerage firm offered up a chilly "underweight" rating. The downbeat analyst attention isn't too surprising, considering Molycorp Inc has surrendered more than three-quarters of its value in 2014. Still, options traders are gambling on even more downside, as the equity's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 2.50 sits just 1 percentage point shy of an annual peak, pointing to accelerated put buying over call buying during the past two weeks. In addition, short interest makes up roughly 36% of MCP's total available float, and would take more than two weeks to buy back, at the equity's average daily trading volume.

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Buzz Stocks: Dunkin Brands Group Inc, Yelp Inc, and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

Today's stocks to watch include DNKN, YELP, and BABA

by 10/23/2014 10:05 AM
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Stocks are on pace to recover a portion of yesterday's losses, with help from solid earnings from Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT). In other company news, breakfast behemoth Dunkin Brands Group Inc (NASDAQ:DNKN), online review issue Yelp Inc (NYSE:YELP), and Chinese e-commerce concern Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) are three stocks to watch in today's trading.

  • DNKN is down 6.2% at $43.89, after a full-year sales warning (subscription required) trumped stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings. The shares of DNKN are now down 9% year-to-date, and could get slapped with a few downgrades. In fact, 10 out of 18 analysts offer up "buy" or better opinions. Meanwhile, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) sits near an annual low at 0.23, implying short-term speculators have rarely been more call-biased during the past year. An unwinding of optimism in the options pits could exacerbate selling pressure on Dunkin Brands Group Inc.

  • In a similar situation is YELP, which has plummeted 16% to $59.07 as its disappointing fourth-quarter guidance overshadows a stronger-than-expected third quarter. More than a dozen analysts have cut their price targets as a result, and Stifel Nicolaus downgraded YELP to "hold" from "buy." (However, B. Riley upped its opinion to "buy" from "neutral.") More than a few options traders will likely be cheering Yelp Inc's earnings miss, though. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.84 sits in the 81st percentile of its annual range, reflecting a growing appetite for bearish bets over bullish of late. As a result, the security's SOIR is docked at 1.34 -- just 8 percentage points from an annual peak.

  • BABA is up 1.6% at $93.10, amid reports the company is looking to expand its U.S.-made content offerings in China. In addition, Barclays launched coverage of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd with an "overweight" endorsement and a $107 price target -- which would mark a record high for the shares, which have yet to explore triple-digit territory. Most analysts are already fans of BABA, which sports six "strong buy" ratings, compared to not one "hold" or "sell." Ahead of the company's first turn in the earnings spotlight on Tuesday, Nov. 4, short-term options buyers are favoring calls over puts.

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Analysts are upwardly revising their ratings on telecom concern Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:NOK), blue-chip financial firm Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS), and farm supply specialist Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO). Here's a quick look at today's bullish brokerage notes on NOK, GS, and TSCO.

  • NOK is up 5% at the open to trade at $8.30 -- moving into the black on a year-to-date basis -- after its better-than-expected third-quarter earnings report was met with a price-target hike to 7.49 euros from 7.41 euros at Jefferies, which also underscored its "buy" rating. Today's post-earnings pop could come as a disappointment to option traders, who were upping the bearish ante on Nokia Corporation (ADR) ahead of last night's results. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), for example, the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.69 ranks higher than 95% of similar readings taken in the past year.

  • Deutsche Bank weighed in on a number of banks this morning, and for GS, this meant a price-target hike to $195 from $181 -- representing expected upside of 8.9% to the stock's current perch at $179.08, and a move into six-year-high territory. On the charts, Goldman Sachs Group Inc has put in an uninspiring performance in 2014, with the shares just above their year-to-date breakeven mark. However, sentiment among options traders remains optimistic, per the equity's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 2.23, which ranks in the bullishly skewed 72nd percentile of its annual range. Additionally, short interest accounts for a low 2.2% of the stock's available float, and would take just over three sessions to cover, at the equity's average daily pace of trading.

  • TSCO rallied more than 11% right out of the gate to $68.98, thanks to a stronger-than-forecast third-quarter earnings report and an upbeat full-year outlook. The news was met with no fewer than eight price-target hikes, as well as an upgrade to "strong buy" from "market perform" at Raymond James. Heading into today's session, Tractor Supply Company was sitting on a roughly 21% year-to-date deficit, and more recently, was feeling the heat from its 120-day moving average, currently located at $62.66. As such, short sellers have been increasing their presence in recent weeks. Specifically, short interest rose 11.4% over the last two reporting periods, and it would take more than six sessions to cover these shorted shares, at TSCO's average daily pace of trading.

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